This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Our first games of 2023 will all tip off at 8:00 p.m. EST, and FanDuel's three-game slate will feature the leading teams in the East and West clashing in Denver.
SLATE OVERVIEW
For the latest spreads and over-unders, visit RotoWire's NBA Odds page. There, you can also find player props, futures, picks articles and sportsbook bonus codes.
All eyes will be on the Celtics-Nuggets, and we've made some calls there. The winner of the O/U war is the Kings-Grizzlies matchup. The headliner isn't far beyond with a projected total of 234, and the Bucks and Wizards bring up the rear. We've gone rather light on the Nuggets, but have found many opportunities among the other five teams.
INJURIES
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report. Below are some of the most recent and relevant injuries on today's slate. Keep in mind that this isn't a complete list. Use your best judgment for long-term and ongoing injury scenarios.
MIL Jrue Holiday (illness) - OUT
MIL Khris Middleton (knee) - OUT
We won't see either star for the Bucks Sunday, so consider Grayson Allen ($4,100) and Joe Ingles ($4,400) as value adds against the Wizards.
WAS Bradley Beal (hamstring) - QUESTIONABLE
I don't see a direct replacement for Beal worth endorsing, but we will certainly touch on other Washington options.
DEN Jamal Murray (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
The Nuggets have made a habit of resting Murray on the front end of back-to-backs, so we'll have to wait to see if they make an exception for New Year's Day. As only six teams are involved Sunday, the pivot for Murray could be significant if he's out. I'm not crazy about playing Bones Hyland ($5,500), but he's probably the one to replace Murray.
ELITE PLAYERS
Options are limited, so you have to be dead-on when spending up. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,300) appears to be the ideal play against the Wizards despite the obvious allure of Nikola Jokic ($12,000) and Jayson Tatum ($11,000) as both will enjoy high production. And while I see an argument against Giannis without Holiday in the lineup, the team offers a rotation that can handle his absence. To get involved with the Celtics, I would probably opt to spend less and consider Jaylen Brown ($9,000) as a value elite option.
We said we'd mention a Washington candidate, and despite the slightly inflated salary I'm a fan of Kyle Kuzma ($8,300) and would up my exposure to him if Beal can't make it. I'm also endorsing De'Aaron Fox ($8,800) as the point guard to highlight for Sunday despite a decent matchup on the other side of the ball for Ja Morant, who I feel is overvalued at this point in the season. After missing a game, Domantas Sabonis ($10,300) is back to his usual production, and the Fox-Sabonis combo is definitely an avenue to consider against Memphis.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Jaren Jackson, MEM ($7,200) vs. SAC
Jackson was able to generate almost 50 FDFP against the Kings back in late November. And even though he tends to sit back-to-backs since returning from injury, I expect him to suit up Sunday. Jackson netted that number in only 27 minutes, and he's averaging a few more minutes recently. His floor is in the 35-FDFP range, so even a median performance won't hurt you at this salary, but I think he'll go north of that if Steven Adams can keep Sabonis occupied.
Marcus Smart, BOS ($6,500) @ DEN
Thanks to some excellent assist stats, Smart generates some decent fantasy totals - especially at this salary. His recent history against the Nuggets hasn't been great, but the Celtics have utilized him as a key facilitator and we can depend on continued dime-dropping. And Smart is almost always good for a couple of steals and rebounds. Something around 32 FDFP would match value, and he's beaten that mark twice in his last four games.
Michael Porter, DEN ($6,000) vs. BOS
Porter's recent production has spiked due to Aaron Gordon's absence, so I would give him the green light if Gordon doesn't return. He faces a stern test against Boston's defense, but he's been much more consistent after his 13-game absence. Porter is a high-variance call even if Gordon is absent, but I still think he's worth it at 6k.
Also consider: Bobby Portis, MIL ($6,300) vs. WAS
VALUE PLAYS
Kevin Huerter, SAC ($5,500) @ MEM
The Kings have been surprising in general, but Huerter wasn't expected to have the kind of impact with his new team. When Buddy Hield departed, the need for a pure shooter emerged, and Huerter has taken up that mantle. The gap was intended to be filled with players like Davion Mitchell and Terence Davis, but they've paled in comparison to Huerter's production. He's essentially the third-best scoring option on the team, and I'd take that for $5,500 all day.
Robert Williams, BOS ($5,400) @ DEN
I wouldn't normally consider the opposition against Nikola Jokic, but Williams' usage has continued to rise since returning to action and his absence created a salary dip we can still take advantage of. We also have dual eligibility for Williams, and PF is a more likely spot for him in my lineups, especially if I load up on Sabonis as expected.
Deni Avdija, WAS ($4,900) @ MIL
Avdija has come off the bench since coming back, but I think the team needs his height in the interior against the Bucks. His minutes have also climbed sharply over the three matchups following his two-game absence, but his salary only increased $400 after a decent outing against the Magic. Avdija could prove to be a good, sneaky play on the slate.
Jevon Carter, MIL ($4,300) vs. WAS
Without question, Carter is a great value with Holiday out, and I'd be very surprised if he wasn't in the starting lineup Sunday. You almost have to give a Milwaukee starter who could log 30 minutes when he comes at this cheap salary, and it's the kind of value we need if we want to squeeze a third player above 8k into our lineup construction.
