This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Celtics at Heat under 207 points (-110)
FanDuel, 2:12 PM CT
Alex Barutha: These teams combined for 225 points in Game 1, so today's 207 over/under represents quite a drop. I'm on the under, though. The opening game felt uncharacteristically frantic from both sides. That was represented in the live-ball turnovers and fast-break opportunities leading to easy buckets for both teams. In Game 1, Boston and Miami combined to add 17.4 points per 100 possessions in transition play. During the regular season, that combined number was just 4.9 points. Getting Al Horford and Marcus Smart back should also help the Celtics play better defense -- much needed after the Heat torched the Celtics for 112.2 points per 100 halfcourt possessions (88th percentile in the playoffs). Ultimately, I'm expecting both teams to clean things up in what should look more like halfcourt rockfight in Game 2.
Boston Celtics +3 (-110) at Miami Heat
DraftKings, 1:15 PM CT
Nick Whalen: Even if Al Horford misses a second straight game, and even with Derrick White sidelined, I like Boston's chances to bounce back and even the series before heading back home. We saw the Celtics drop Game 1 against Milwaukee and rebound with an impressive Game 2 showing, and it's important to keep in mind that Boston was the better team in Game 1 – with the exception of that disastrous third quarter.
Jayson Tatum over 41.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105)
DraftKings, 1:15 PM CT
Nick Whalen: This one is slightly shaded toward the under (-125), but I actually think it's a fairly friendly number – and one that Tatum has topped six times already this postseason, including in Game 1.
Heat moneyline + game total under 207 points parlay (+218)
DraftKings, 12:58 PM CT
Charlie Dern: This parlay is largely contingent on if Marcus Smart plays or not. He's currently probable to play, which should help to slow Jimmy Butler and Miami's offense down. Miami has also been playing very low-scoring games as of late, with nine of their last 12 games finishing under the total. With all of Boston's lineup uncertainties, I really don't trust the Celtics to get it done in game two, especially while Miami is currently unbeaten at home in the playoffs
