This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
The playoffs are finally here, and there are plenty of intriguing Round 1 matchups to analyze. The purpose of this article is to highlight team-specific strengths and weaknesses to help you place more informed bets or make more informed DFS plays. It also includes some stream-of-consciousness write-ups that don't necessarily follow a strict format or attempt to claim one specific bet is a must-play or must-avoid. They're my thoughts on the most interesting parts of the series -- the first thing that came to my head when I think about the matchup.
Heat (1) vs. 
Hawks (8)
Series price: MIA -370, ATL +300
Most likely outcome: MIA 4-1 (+280)
MIA outlier factors (league rank)
eFG% (5)
TOV (28)
FTA (5)
DRTG (4)
DTOV (3)
DFTA (27)
ATL outlier factors
ORTG (2)
TOV (1)
DRTG (26)
DTOV (27)
It's looking like the Hawks could be without Clint Capela for this series after he suffered a knee injury during Saturday's play-in victory over the Cavaliers. While Onyeka Okongwu has shown some promise and Gorgui Dieng is interesting as a floor-spacer, the Heat now have a huge mismatch at the position in a series. Atlanta's only chance of winning is through amazing offense (since they possess the fourth-worst defense in the NBA), but they're facing the fourth-best defense, so things are looking bleak.
While the Heat aren't exactly an offensive powerhouse, Atlanta doesn't have any real defensive matchups to feel good about – maybe, maybe De'Andre Hunter on Jimmy Butler. Kyle Lowry won't have any trouble bullying Trae Young, Tyler Herro isn't going to face resistance, and Adebayo is going up against backups.
Miami doesn't necessarily have a great answer for Young – Lowry isn't quick enough – so it will probably be a team effort, and Butler will probably spend more than a few possessions in front of the point guard. And while Okongwu can catch lobs, the experience and chemistry between him and Young isn't the same as with Capela, and that really mutes Atlanta's main offensive play. The Hawks have also succeeded due to a lack of turnovers, but they're going up against the third-best team in the league at forcing turnovers.
Suns (1) vs. 
Pelicans (8)
Series price: PHO -2500, NOP +1000
Most likely outcome: PHO 4-1 (+160)
PHO outlier factors
ORTG (3)
eFG% (3)
TOV (3)
DRTG (3)
DeFG% (3)
DTOV (5)
NOP outlier factors
ORB (4)
FTA (3)
DeFG% (26)
DRB (3)
The Suns are the heaviest-favored team in the playoffs, with a $25 bet earning you $1 for a series victory. They have the best (non-garbage time) point differential in the NBA (+8.5) – a full 1.1 points higher than the second-place Celtics. New Orleans has picked up some steam since the trade for CJ McCollum, but it's hard to imagine them being anything other than a stepping stone on the Suns' path to the Finals.
Phoenix doesn't have a negative outlier stat, and they'll presumably continue to get great looks since New Orleans doesn't prevent efficient shooting. Where the Pelicans thrive is on the glass and getting to the line – often winning the possession game – and those will continue to be keys throughout the series if the Pels want to stay competitive. That said, Deandre Ayton will make life tough for Jonas Valanciunas on the glass, and Mikal Bridges will be swarming Brandon Ingram for most of the series. Devin Booker and Chris Paul should also be able to do a fine job on CJ McCollum.
Celtics (2) vs. 
Nets (7)
Series price: BOS -130, BKN +110
Most likely outcome: BOS 4-3 (+320)
BOS outlier factors (league rank)
DTRG (1)
DeFG% (1)
BKN outlier factors
DRB (30)
This already-difficult series to gauge is made more confusing by the potential returns of both Robert Williams and Ben Simmons. The Celtics' mid-season turnaround was made possible largely through Williams' defense, and he seems to be making good progress in a return from a torn meniscus. Simmons hasn't played all year, and it's not clear how he'd be utilized by Brooklyn, though he'd certainly be a defensive option against Jayson Tatum.
The Celtics are 4.8 points per possession better on defense with Williams on the court, as his ability to affect shots at the rim is game-changing. And while that matters against every team, his presence, or lack thereof, won't affect Brooklyn as much as other teams since Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving dominate from three and the mid-range.
During the regular season, most opponents weren't willing to exert the effort required to double-team and trap Irving and Durant on the perimeter, but we saw the Cavaliers go for that strategy in the second half, and it helped keep the game close while forcing the ball into the hands of Bruce Brown. Boston's defense is miles ahead of Cleveland's, so if the Celtics also opt to trap Irving and Durant, it remains to be seen if the Nets have enough support to score efficiently.
Grizzlies (2) vs. 
Timberwolves (7)
Series price: MEM -330, MIN +260
Most likely outcome: MEM 4-1 (+300)
MEM outlier factors
ORTG (4)
ORB (1)
DRTG (5)
DTOV (4)
MIN outlier factors
DTOV (2)
DRB (29)
DFTA (29)
Minnesota pulled out an impressive win in the play-in game despite Karl-Anthony Towns having one of the worst games of his career. And they match up as well as a true No. 7 realistically can, but it's difficult to imagine a team of Memphis' caliber – Top 5 in offense and defense – losing in the first round.
One area of the game that stands out as a point of attack is the offensive glass for Memphis. The Grizzlies, led by Steven Adams, are the best offensive rebounding team in the NBA. That will lead to tons of extra possessions against the Wolves, who are the second-worst defensive rebounding team. Bettors looking for a player prop edge should explore Adams' rebounding. Both teams are also strong at forcing opponent turnovers, so the series could end up being sloppy as well.
Minnesota was heavily reliant on Anthony Edwards during the play-in victory, and D'Angelo Russell will continue to run point. However, the Grizzlies have excellent wing defenders in Dillon Brooks and Desmond Bane, both of whom will presumably get assignments on Russell and Edwards while Ja Morant hides on Patrick Beverley. Jaren Jackson will also likely check Towns while Adams guards Vanderbilt. Minnesota's offense is great, but it's facing a tough matchup.
Bucks (3) vs. 
Bulls (6)
Series price: MIL -1000, CHI +650
Most likely outcome: MIL 4-1 (+190)
MIL outlier factors
ORTG (5)
DTOV (26)
DRB (2)
DFTA (2)
CHI outlier factors
ORB (28)
You're risking $10 to win $1 on the Bucks to win this series, which tells you all you need to know about the Bulls' chances. After a blistering hot start, they cooled down in the middle of the season and have struggled against the top teams in the NBA. That's emphasized by the fact that they don't have a single positive outlier factor, with the only stat being their terrible offensive rebounding, and they'll get even fewer than usual since the Bucks are elite on the defensive glass.
It's tough to even approach player props in this scenario since there could be multiple blowouts. That said, I'd consider overs on Giannis Antetokounmpo's rebounding considering how poor Chicago is at crashing the glass. And if you're a believer in Alex Caruso's defense, there's an argument to shade toward unders on Jrue Holiday's points.
Warriors (3) vs. 
Nuggets (6)
Series price: GS -250, DEN +210
Most likely outcome: GS 4-3 (+300)
GS outlier factors
eFG% (4)
TOV (29)
DRTG (2)
DeFG% (2)
DEN outlier factors
eFG% (1)
TOV (26)
DTOV (28)
DRB (1)
Steph Curry's health was, and still is, an important question for this series. But we got word that he'll be playing in Game 1, and though there will probably be a minutes limit, there's nothing to indicate it will be dramatic. With that being the case, the Warriors are the significant favorite in the series despite Nikola Jokic being on his way to a second MVP.
Denver is the most efficient shooting team in the NBA, which helps them win games along with great defensive rebounding, but they're facing the team with the second-best defense in the NBA, and one that thrives by forcing other teams into bad looks. Maybe Golden State doesn't have an individual defender to check Jokic, but it's possible they allow him to score 35+ per game and focus on preventing anyone else from getting involved. That could eventually tire him out, especially since he'll then have to protect the rim and rebound on the other end.
It won't be easy for Denver to stop Golden State from scoring, either. Denver has passable individual defenders in Monte Morris and Aaron Gordon, but they aren't exactly disruptors or lock-down guys. It's possible coach Michael Malone resorts to a heavy switching scheme or gimmicks so the Warriors can't play on autopilot. As a closing note, I do expect the series to be sloppy, with both teams prone to turnover-heavy offensive efforts.
76ers (4) vs. 
Raptors (5)
Series price: PHI -180, TOR +150
Most likely outcome: PHI 4-3 (+320)
PHI outlier factors
TOV (4)
ORB (30)
FTA (1)
TOR outlier factors
eFG% (27)
ORB (2)
DTOV (1)
Despite the seemingly-overwhelming on-paper talent of Joel Embiid and James Harden, not to mention Tyrese Maxey as a third option and Tobias Harris as a fourth option, the 76ers aren't significant favorites, and the most likely outcome is a seven-game victory. It's hard to argue that Toronto isn't the better-coached team given the closeness of records despite the top-end talent gap, plus the Raptors dealt with significant injuries for much of the season.
Despite having Joel Embiid around, the 76ers are the worst offensive rebounding team in the NBA, and they aren't elite on the defensive glass either. They help make up for that possession loss with a lack of turnovers, but they'll be facing the best team in the NBA at forcing turnovers, not to mention the second-best offensive rebounding team. The zoomed-out question about this series is: will Philly's talent matter if they lose the possession battle every game?
Of course, the 76ers get to the free-throw line the most in the NBA – a product of having two of the most hacked players in the league with Embiid and Harden, and both players are efficient from the stripe. And the Raptors simply do not have an individual-defender solution to Embiid. Will they double Embiid and throw bizarre defensive looks at him or allow him to tire himself out by scoring a ton? I actually think the former will be used more often despite people arguing for the latter. Embiid isn't the passer out of double-teams that Jokic is, for example, and his teammates will need to make hard cuts and finish around the basket to take advantage of double-teams. Does "make hard cuts to the basket" sound like James Harden to you? Does "finish around the basket" sound like Tobias Harris or Danny Green to you?
Mavericks (4) vs. 
Jazz (5)
Series price: UTA -300, DAL +230
Most likely outcome: OFF BOARD
DAL outlier factors
TOV (5)
UTA outlier factors
ORTG (1)
eFG% (2)
ORB (5)
FTA (4)
DTOV (29)
DRB (5)
DFTA (1)
On paper, there's no reason for the Mavericks to win this series. They have one elite factor – they don't turn the ball over. Plus, Luka Doncic is out for at least Game 1 due to his calf strain – and it's starting to look like he'll be out for Game 2 – putting immense pressure on Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie. Meanwhile, Utah is the best offense in the NBA and has strong defensive metrics as well – their key weakness being an inability to force turnovers, though they win the possession game often through excellent rebounding.
As little faith that people have in Utah, I won't pick them to lose this series given what's going on with Doncic. Of course, it could happen, but it would be an immense collapse – again, yes, we've seen that from Utah – and I'm not sure how to even properly analyze a hypothetical in which Dallas pulls this off. Tying 1-1 would be a huge victory, but then you're going on the road for two games with either no Doncic or a presumably-less-than-100-percent-healthy Doncic.
