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Best Bets
Celtics to win (-109) at Mavericks
BetRivers, 4:18 PM CT
Alex Barutha: I could try to find a bunch of analytics to back this up, but I just don't think Dallas has any answers for Boston. Doncic's body is falling apart, and he's getting so frustrated that he's coming undone. Neither he nor Kyrie look remotely comfortable, and none of the Mavs' role guys can handle how well-rounded Boston is at both ends of the floor. Nobody can even successfully go at Sam Hauser, like they keep trying to. The Celtics have a chokehold on the series without Tatum even playing well. And for as good as Jaylen Brown has been, he's only 5-of-20 from three. Maybe Dallas gets the back-against-the-wall win, but I'd just bet on them to lose again in Game 5.
PJ Washington O6.5 rebounds vs. Celtics (-122)
DraftKings Sportsbook, 11AM CT
Nick Whalen: Washington has gone over this number in every Finals game thus far and in nine of his last 13 games overall. He's played 40 and 39 minutes, respectively, in the last two games, and I expect that heavy workload to continue tonight in what's ultimately a kitchen-sink game for the Mavs.
Jrue Holiday O10.5 REB+AST at Mavericks (-118)
DraftKings Sportsbook, 11AM CT
Nick Whalen: Holiday had two big offensive games to begin the series before quieting down a bit in Game 3. But even with that included, he's gone over this number in eight of the Celtics' last 10 games dating back to the Cleveland series in Round 2. During that 10-game run, Holiday is averaging 12.0 REB+AST. Boston is converting his potential assists at a less-than-50% clip thus far in the Finals, so if the shooting comes around – as it began to in Game 3 – he could see a bump there.
I'm taking the OVER on Al Horford posting 8.5 rebounds-plus-assists
(FanDuel, -130, 2:45pm EST)
Ken Crites: I don't think we'll see Kristaps Porzingis tonight (ankle, calf). My suspicion is that Boston is posting the Unicorn's "Game Time Decision" status as a smoke screen to distract and worry Dallas. (As if they don't have enough to worry about!). During the regular season, when Porzingis was off the floor, Horford averages 8.5 boards and 4.0 assists over 36 minutes. Do I think Big Al will play 36 minutes? Yes. The Xavier Tillman story line is cute, but he only played 11 minutes in Game 3. The veteran Horford played 37 minutes. Granted Horford only posted five boards and two dimes. But he should regress to the much better mean. Horford is, after all, fighting for his first and probably only ring. I think in an act of desperation, Dallas throws more bodies at Tatum and Brown, allowing for some easy boards for Big Al. The K-Train is 36-29 on the season, so feel free to fade. Also, GO CELTICS!!!
