This article is part of our FantasyDraft NBA series.
The last week of the NBA season is always a bit an adventure with respect to predicting how non-playoff teams will divide up their minutes. The same holds true for those with secured postseason spots that don't have much – if anything – to gain in terms of positioning. Luckily, Thursday's modest five-game slate seems to offer us a bit more stability in this regard, although it's always especially advisable to keep abreast of late-breaking news before lineup lock at this time of year. Without further delay, let's dive into locking in where some of the best plays appear to reside as we continue down the stretch run:
GUARDS:
Eric Bledsoe, MIL vs. BKN ($14,800): The Bucks have clinched a playoff spot, but they sure would love to ascend a bit from the eight spot and avoid a likely first-round encounter with the top-seeded Toronto Raptors if possible. That fact alone should afford Bledsoe some solid minutes against a Brooklyn squad that he's already averaged 21.0 points (on 47.2 percent shooting), 5.0 assists, 2.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals across 31.0 minutes in two games this season, and that's playing at the fourth-fastest pace (106.2 possessions per game) over the last three contests. The Nets have also allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to point guards on the season (43.9), including 58.2 over the last five games. Moreover, they're allowing the highest offensive efficiency rating (27.4) to the position on the campaign, while Bledsoe has scored 35.25 to 63.25 fantasy points in five of the last six games -- excellent returns on his current price.
Jamal Murray, DEN vs. MIN ($12,400): Murray has already lit up the T-Wolves for averages of 25.5 points (on 48.6 percent shooting), 5.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 1.0 steal across 41.5 minutes in two games this season. In addition, he's scored over 30 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. The rookie is sporting a 22.3 percent usage rate during that stretch, and the 15 shot attempts per contest he's averaging over the last five represent a bump of two more tries per game over his season figure. Denver is still in must-win mode, as they're now just one game out of the eighth seed in the Western Conference, while the T-Wolves sit just one game ahead of them in the seventh slot. Those circumstances should make for a tightly contested, wire-to-wire affair, and the fact Minnesota has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to point guards over the last five (60.2) only sweetens the pot.
Shabazz Napier, POR at HOU ($10,900):Tyus Jones ($9,600) is also a very viable option at the affordable tier if Jeff Teague misses another contest with knee soreness, but Napier looks set for a start with Damian Lillard projected to sit out with an ankle sprain. Napier compiled 23.25 fantasy points in 24 bench minutes against the Mavs on Tuesday, and he eclipsed 20 actual points in four of seven starts he made when Lillard was hurt in late December and early January. The Rockets have the top spot in the West sewn up and have also given up nearly 12 fantasy points over their season total to point guards over the last five games (53.4, as compared to 41.7). With what should be a solid load of minutes, Napier stands a good chance of providing a strong return on his affordable price.
FORWARDS/CENTERS:
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN at DEN ($18,300):Giannis Antetokounmpo ($19,100) naturally also holds appeal at this price tier for those that can afford him, but Towns and the T-Wolves will be locked into a playoff-type contest against the Nuggets, which trail them by just one game coming in. Towns is averaging a double-double of 19.5 points, 11.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.0 blocks and 1.5 steals across 34.0 minutes in two prior games versus Denver this season, a sample in which he's also shooting 60.7 percent. He had a slight downturn in his last contest against the Jazz while dealing with Rudy Gobert down low, but he still generated a solid 30.25 fantasy points. He'd also scored 46.00 to 86.25 fantasy points in six of the previous seven, a span in which he eclipsed the 50-mark on four occasions. The Nuggets have been relatively stingy against centers but more vulnerable lately, as the 40.4 fantasy points they're allowing over the last five represents a bump of more than seven fantasy points over their 33.0 season figure.
Derrick Favors, UTA vs. LAC ($10,000): Favors' teammate Rudy Gobert ($14,400) and the T-Wolves' Andrew Wiggins ($13,700) also make for strong options at the higher end of the mid-tier level for those that have the cash, but Favors carries a particularly appealing price tag relative to recent production for those that need some savings. The veteran big man has scored 26.50 to 39.25 fantasy points in seven of the last eight games, which represent very good-to-excellent returns on his current price. Utah does have possession of the fourth seed at present, but in a tight Western Conference, that actually places them just 2.5 games away from dropping down past the eighth seed. Therefore, Favors should see a normal allotment of minutes against a Clippers squad that's allowed 55.8 fantasy points to power forwards over the last 10, including the fifth most (60.2) over the last five.
Montrezl Harrell, LAC at UTA ($8,500): Harrell has become a pivotal source of offense on the Clippers' second unit, arguably second only to Lou Williams. His aggressive nature is exemplified by the fact he's averaging 14.1 points on 9.0 shot attempts across a modest 19.5 minutes over the last 10 games, and in what constitutes another must-win scenario for the still-playoff-hopeful Clippers, he should be heavily involved once again. He's scored over 20 fantasy points in four of the last six games, as well, including more than 25 in three of those contests. Meanwhile, Utah has been much more vulnerable to power forwards than usual over the last five, allowing 52.5 fantasy points to the position over the last five as compared to a 36.2 season figure. Harrell should also be able to avoid Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors a good bit of the time while coming off the bench, another factor in his favor at his modest price.
UTILITY:
Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. MIN ($18,500): Just as Towns is very much worthy of consideration Wednesday on the other side of this matchup, Jokic is just as viable a play as well. Jokic has averaged 22.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.5 blocks and 1.0 steal across 38.5 minutes in two prior meetings with Minnesota this season, numbers that, when combined with Towns' against the Nuggets, corroborate that both players are highly capable of generating excellent production in the same game while often going head-to-head. Jokic has scored no fewer than 58.00 and as much as 68.50 fantasy points over the last four games, as the Nuggets make a last frantic push for the postseason, while the T-Wolves come in allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to centers over the last 10 (45.3), along with the fourth-highest offensive efficiency rating (32.4) to the position on the season.
Ricky Rubio, UTA vs. LAC ($14,400): Rubio is another Jazz player who's consistently obliterated his price tags of late, as he's scored 42.25 to 51.50 fantasy points in five of the last six games. He'll draw a matchup against a Clippers squad that's allowed the second-most fantasy points (57.6) over the last 10 games to point guards, including 60.0 over the last five. He's been particularly active on the offensive end over the last six, averaging 13.0 shot attempts during that span, including 15 over the last two. In a game that remains important to both squads, Rubio should be in for some elevated usage once again at what remains a fair price relative to his recent production.
