This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
We have a marvelous eight-game slate for Tuesday. I like a few props for today's slate. Three are points props, one is an assists prop, and two are rebounds props. Before we dive into things, I'd like to share that I don't place bets unless I believe they likely cash and have perceived value. What do I mean when I say 'perceived value'? I do research and find statistics that back up the stance I am willing to take when making these bets. For all the props I mention in this article, I put 1 unit (1% of my betting bankroll) each as I choose to take chances like these responsibly. Let's discuss!
Points Props
We'll bring our attention to the game in Miami as the Heat, who are five-point favorites, host the Memphis Grizzlies, where the total sits at 216. The Grizzlies are 7th in defensive efficiency in the NBA, which suggests Jimmy Butler can go UNDER 21.5 points (-120).
Next features the game between the home underdog (+107) Boston Celtics and the Philadelphia 76ers, where Joel Embiid is not listed on the injury report. Philidelphia has a solid defensive unit. They are fourth-best in the NBA in opposing field goal percentage and second-best in defensive efficiency. These factors may spell Kemba Walker to go UNDER 18.5 Points (-113).
One of the two contests, which take place at 10 pm EST, takes place at Staples Center, where the Portland Trail Blazers travel to Los Angeles to take on the Clippers. The points total for this game sits at 229.5, which is the second-highest on the slate. The Clippers allow 22.1 points per game to opposing centers. This is a favorable setup for Enes Kanter to go over 10.5 points (-120).
Rebounds and Assists Props
The only pick'em Moneyline matchup on our slate is between the Chicago Bulls and the Indiana Pacers in Indianapolis. The Pacers are 22nd in offensive rebounding percentage, 25th in defensive rebounding percentage, and 25th in total rebounding percentage. Indiana also allows 8.1 rebounds per game to opposing small forwards and 10.9 rebounds per game to opposing power forwards. Patrick Williams has now seen at least 31 minutes in four straight games where he alternates with the small forward and power forwards positions. These circumstances seem favorable for Williams to go OVER 4.5 Rebounds (-113).
Let's kick it over to what projects to be a competitive contest between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Miami Heat, where the Heat are five-point home favorites. Miami is 19th in total rebounding percentage and 28th in offensive rebounding percentage. Furthermore, the Heat allow 6.0 rebounds per game to opposing shooting guards and 7.2 rebounds per game to opposing small forwards. Dillon Brooks to go OVER 2.5 Rebounds (-134) seems like a viable outcome given these data points.
The game that features the highest total projected points (234.5) is located in San Francisco as the Golden State Warriors and the Milwaukee Bucks meet to compete. Milwaukee is fifth in opposing field goal percentage and eighth in defensive efficiency. It seems likely for Draymond Green to go UNDER 9.5 Assists (-113) given this data.
