This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
At last, we've come to the final night of the regular season and the evening certainly will not disappoint. There's a significant amount of drama yet to be played out as we turn the page and embark on our journey into the 2018 NBA Playoffs.
Front and center on the docket Wednesday is what you could ostensibly call an NBA play-in game, as the Timberwolves and Nuggets will face off with the winner getting the final playoff spot in the West. There's no question that this matchup will have some incredibly high ownership, so I think if you're going to be smart with this slate you're actually going to do your best to fade this game with a few exceptions. I know that goes against every instinct, but the top lineup WILL NOT come from this game. I could justify some exposure to the game in cash, but that's about it.
In order to field a high score, we're going to have to go deeper and target some second and third-unit guys who are going to get considerable minutes along with some players on teams that are still doing some jockeying for seeds.
To further complicate matters, a record NINE 10K-plus players dominate the top of the slate but I think you can readily eliminate a few of them. Nikola Jokic ($10,600) and Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,400) headline the aforementioned elimination game, and this might be the only place where I elect to give this game a play.
I'm not going to touch James Harden ($11,000), but I would give LaMarcus Aldridge ($10,000) and Anthony Davis ($11,200) very limited use due to seeding implications but obviously their backups could yield considerable value as well. This leaves basically only three high-priced guys that I like on Wednesday. LeBron James ($11,400) says he is going to play even though he doesn't need to, and there's no telling if he'll be capped or not but unless I get reports otherwise, he's hard to avoid in cash lineups.
The same is true for Russell Westbrook ($11,900), who is reported to be in the starting five for the Thunder. It remains to be seen how many minutes he'll see against the lowly Grizzlies, however. Finally, a wildcard who I'll definitely be waiting to hear about is Ben Simmons ($10,300), who, in fact, does have a final statement to make as Rookie of the Year honors have yet to be determined. Top rival Donovan Mitchell ($8,000) will also be on the floor taking on Portland.
So, I have to be honest with you: there's going to be a lot of variance here. Almost everywhere you go you're subjecting your lineup to some serious risk but the size of this slate is a bit of a saving grace as ownership will be spread out. This could be one of those nights where fielding a single-entry tournament would be in your best interest, as the multi-entry fields will be tough to nail, and cash lineups might prove to be even harder.
So, here we go! I'll highlight three players at each position and only one guy per category will be a higher-cost selection. I'll also supply a small list of players in each spot that holds equal weight in my predictions:
GUARDS
Bradley Beal, WAS at ORL ($7,900): I wavered between Beal and Jrue Holiday as a player to highlight, but the Wizards have just a bit more reason to play well, as a win and a Miami loss will be the difference between facing Toronto or Boston in the first round. Obviously, the Celtics come in as the most vulnerable team with a high seed, so there will be a lot of motivation to get this win. While we could see John Wall, his minutes will almost surely be capped -- if he plays at all -- leaving a lot of the onus on Beal to make this win happen.
Luke Kennard, DET at CHI ($4,300): Two straight games with 30-plus DKFP and this rock-bottom price make Kennard a must if you're looking to spend big elsewhere. There's no reason to believe that the game script will deviate much from the past couple of contests as the Pistons seem content to give Kennard all the playing time he can handle.
Frank Ntilikina, NY at CLE ($4,300): It makes perfect sense that we saw a lot of Ntilikina against Cleveland the other night, as the Knicks need to see if he can be the guy next year after they made a huge investment. He certainly matched up well against the Cavs in their last game and while going with Frank will carry some variance, he's one of those guys that can explode if the game flow cooperates.
Other guards to consider:Jrue Holiday, NO vs. SA ($8,200); MarShon Brooks, MEM at OKC ($6,400); Allen Crabbe, BKN at BOS ($6,200); Sindarius Thornwell, LAC vs. LAL ($3,900)
FORWARDS
Josh Hart, LAL at LAC ($6,500): With Kuzma out for the final game of the season, I think Hart has a good chance to beat value in a game that both teams will be playing for pride. He's best suited as a tournament option due to the opinion that he'll be largely overlooked.
Marco Belinelli, PHI vs. MIL ($5,000): If you had the chance to watch the game against the Cavs the other night, you saw just how dynamic Belinelli can be when he gets the open shot. With a lot less at stake on Wednesday I think the 76ers will hand the ball to Belinelli early and often and if he gets hot, watch out. There's a huge amount of upside here.
Manu Ginobili, SA vs. NO ($3,900): I don't like the idea of mind-reading Gregg Popovich (who does, really?), but he's the kind of guy with a flair for nostalgia, and though only seeding is in play for this team I think we'll see Ginobili play a huge role moving forward. The 40-year-old looked more like 30 in his past two games, so while there's always a chance that he'll sit, I'll play him if he suits up. A reasonable pivot for me on the same team is Rudy Gay ($5,100), who has tremendous upside coming off the bench, and could possibly even draw a start on Wednesday.
Other forwards to consider:Khris Middleton, MIL at PHI ($8,400); Nikola Mirotic, NO vs. SA ($6,500); Ersan Ilyasova, PHI vs. MIL ($6,300)
CENTERS
Julius Randle, LAL at LAC ($7,900):Kyle Kuzma's absence should increase Randle's opportunities in the four spot, where he's been spending most of his time as the Lakers give Ivica Zubac additional looks. As previously stated, this game will be underused which makes Randle an excellent tournament play, though there is some risk that he'll again see limited minutes, as was the case Tuesday night.
Khem Birch, ORL at WAS ($4,500): We'll veer into the bargain bin for our final two picks, and it looks like the Magic want to see a bit more of Birch before the season comes to a close. There's no injury designation for Nikola Vucevic but I don't think that's much of a factor as Birch will still get plenty of minutes and will meet value at this cheap price.
Eric Moreland, DET at CHI ($4,300): Both Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin are out for the final game, which opens the door for Moreland to make an impact. Moreland hasn't seen much time in his second season but he definitely figures into Detroit's future plans. When you consider the so-so result of the Blake Griffin trade, Moreland could be in line for a lot more time if they part ways with either Griffin or Drummond.
Other centers to consider:Greg Monroe, BOS vs. BKN ($6,600); Kelly Olynyk, MIA vs. TOR ($6,200); Jakob Poeltl, TOR at MIA ($3,700)
