This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
To maximize the usability of our Sunday article, we'll be focusing on DraftKings' four-game middle slate, which kicks off at 6 p.m. ET. The early contests (MIL@CHA, DAL@MIN, LAC vs. PHI) will not be covered.
SLATE OVERVIEW
SAC (-8) vs. DET O/U: 215.5
DEN (-4.5) vs. TOR O/U: 219
LAL (-2.5) @ NO O/U: 233.5
WAS (-5.5) @ GS O/U: 231.5
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
De'Aaron Fox (abdomen) QUESTIONABLE
A scratch from Fox would greatly affect the playability of the Kings on this slate. With Cory Joseph (heel) also questionable, Yogi Ferrell ($3,000) emerges as the only viable point guard play. But a closer look at usage without Fox on the court reveals Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,300) gets the biggest boost in usage and production.
Christian Wood (foot) QUESTIONABLE
Bruce Brown (knee) OUT
Wood has recently been the DFS flavor of the month and his absence would put Detroit in a rough spot, especially with Thon Maker (ankle) also questionable today. John Henson ($3,800) would be the obvious pivot here if both guys are out, and based on usage data I would also give a slight bump to Tony Snell ($3,700) and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk ($3,600) in place of Brown. Keep an eye on updated lineups here at RotoWire to get the latest information.
Draymond Green (knee) QUESTIONABLE
Jordan Poole (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Green could miss another game after an absence on Saturday. Eric Paschall ($5,200) would join the starting five if Green can't play. As for Poole, a pivot would be a slightly more difficult call, but Damion Lee ($5,000) would be the safer pick, followed by Juan Toscano-Anderson ($3,700) as a cheaper value play.
Fred VanVleet (shoulder) QUESTIONABLE
Serge Ibaka (knee) QUESTIONABLE
I think both Kyle Lowry ($8,100) and Pascal Siakam ($8,700) would receive heightened value here, but the bargain options in this spot would likely be OG Anunoby ($6,100) and Norman Powell ($5,100). Terence Davis ($4,200) will be popular as well, but I'm not on board with him and will take the safer routes.
ELITE PLAYERS
Bradley Beal, WAS ($10,400) @ GS
Beal exploded for 70 DKFP against Utah in his last game, so his prolific numbers are still there for the taking. In his single game against the Warriors, he put up another excellent value-beating number of 58 DKFP so we also have the advantage of game history here. Golden State will be a bit of a jumble with multiple backcourt players out, so it looks like an ideal night to spend up for Beal.
Anthony Davis, LAL ($9,900) @ NO
Exercise a bit of caution with Davis on this back-to-back, because his injury concerns could crop up and lead to a scratch with very little warning. If he's cleared to play, it's hard to fade AD as he faces his old team for the fourth time this season. His three-game history against the Pels is excellent, with a 30/12 double-double average and a DKFP average score of 64.
Brandon Ingram, NO ($7,900) vs. LAL
Ingram has also put up excellent numbers against this former team, which includes a 51 DKFP outing against the Lakers just two games ago. I understand the allure of going with Zion Williamson ($7,800) in this spot, but I favor Ingram a tad more due to the higher ceiling. If you're producing multiple lineups, I'd favor Ingram in cash and Zion in tournament games.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Andrew Wiggins, GS ($7,600) vs. WAS
With the Warriors hurting at multiple positions, you're almost obligated to consider Wiggins despite the potential volatility you'll experience from Golden State on a nightly basis. At the very least, they'll be facing a team that struggles defensively - although the Wizards have begun to turn things around in that department. They've lost three of their past four and still rank near the bottom in almost every defensive category. The desire to play Wiggins hinges on a night with upside, so I'm wanting 40 DKFP for him to be viable. He's beaten that number in only four of his last 10 games, so he's more of a GPP candidate for me tonight.
Lonzo Ball, NO ($7,200) vs. LAL
The logic of continuing with the mini-revenge concept is sound, especially if you consider the slate-topping Over/Under available in this matchup. While I like Ball over Jrue Holiday, I'm managing my expectations in this direction as we haven't seen Ball do much above 30 DKFP in recent games. He's popped a few times, and I'm slightly more confident in him coming off an excellent game against Cleveland where he produced 41 DKFP despite shooting only 1-for-6 from the floor.
Derrick Rose, DET ($6,900) @ SAC
Rose appears fully healthy once again. And with the Pistons potentially running without Christian Wood, you have to expect Rose will do all he can to carry this offense. He racked up 31 points in 30 minutes against Phoenix two days ago and posted a 32 DKFP effort against Denver in the game before that, so his numbers are definitely trending up as he gets to 100 percent. Rose rises to solid chalk if De'Aaron Fox is scratched.
VALUE PLAYS
First, refer back to the injury section, as the majority of my good value plays exist there. I'm very high on Lowry if VanVleet misses, and I also like Henson, Lee and Bogdanovic.
Buddy Hield, SAC ($5,800) vs. DET
While I'm tempted to go with Will Barton at this price point, I'm a bit leery of the Nuggets against the Raptors especially when you consider how handily they were picked apart by the Clippers earlier in the week. Hield faces a much softer opponent, and only needs 30 DKFP to beat 5x value at just under $6,000. His shooting percentage has taken a downturn recently, but he's still converting almost 43 percent of 3-pointers over the past five games - the cornerstone of his production when he hits a big number.
Davis Bertans, WAS ($5,200) @ GS
Bertans' numbers have been fairly stable since the All-Star break, and he definitely enjoyed a great matchup against the Warriors in their sole meeting this season by posting a 37 DKFP score. With Rui Hachimura ($5,500) and Thomas Bryant ($3,700) also playing decent ball, you'll carry some variance here but Bertans possesses the added ability to stretch the floor with a deft 3-point shot. Although he's been lukewarm in that department of late, he made eight attempts from beyond the arc in his last game, so the upside is there if he gets hot.
Jerami Grant, DEN ($4,500) vs. TOR
And just like clockwork, Paul Millsap (ankle) is back on the injury report again. Grant's put up two consecutive games of 30-plus DKFPs, and I think Denver can begin to take advantage of Toronto in the frontcourt at high altitude. With Nikola Jokic getting most of the attention, Grant should get his share of opportunities, especially if Millsap sits as expected. While Michael Porter ($3,700) could get in on the action as well, the $800 difference isn't enough to make me move off Grant.
Alex Len, SAC ($3,900) vs. DET
I think the best way for the Kings to exploit Christian Wood's potential absence is to fire up the height mismatch and let Len loose. While Nemanja Bjelica ($6,200) can make for a good argument against Len, I don't know that we can reach back up for Bjelica once we've established an elite core that's going to force us down into the 4k range. We're also looking down the barrel of an anemic O/U total, so we shouldn't put too much focus here. At his price, Len doesn't need to do much to be worthwhile, and the center position is kind of boom or bust tonight - either you're buying the farm or going low and there really isn't much in between.
