This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Today's article will exclude the early games and focus on the eight-game slate that tips off at 4 PM Eastern, so the Knicks-Raptors and Bucks-Clippers games won't be covered here.
If I could name one player who is ideally positioned to have the biggest game on Saturday, it would be Kevin Durant ($10,700). With Stephen Curry (groin) and Draymond Green (toe) both out on Saturday, it will be Durant's team to lead. I wouldn't want to be the Brooklyn Nets, as the Warriors will enter the game hopping mad after getting a convincing beatdown from the Bucks on Thursday.
With Curry out, you can also definitely make a case for Quinn Cook ($4,200), who will draw the start at point guard and see plenty of minutes due to Shaun Livingston's foot injury. Klay Thompson ($6,800) will also absorb some of Curry's output, but from a value perspective, Cook has a more attractive price.
We will also see Russell Westbrook (ankle) out once again, but I think I have to pull the plug on Dennis Schroder as a pivot. His $7K price tag doesn't make him that much of a value anymore. Over the past six games, he's only averaged 31 DKFP per game, and that's not meeting value at his price. If I want a piece of the Thunder, Paul George ($9,200) is the more obvious play with Westbrook out of the lineup. All he's done over the past six games is average 46 DKFP a game to go along with three double-doubles.
The Sixers, Wizards and the Kings are the only-back-to-back teams tonight. I only got one half of the Simmons-Embiid stack on Friday on the way to cashes across the board (I opted for Drummond instead), and there's no problem with going that way again, but this is one of those spots where you have to keep an eye on Embiid's status. Saturday is a perfect spot for him to take a night off, so don't be surprised if he's a scratch. We have no evidence to support that other than precedent, but it's worth monitoring.
I'll now select three players at every position along with a small list of additional targets to consider for each category. When possible, I will endeavor to include a top-shelf player, a mid-range target and a low-cost value play for each spot.
GUARDS
Devin Booker, PHO at NO ($8,300): Vegas ranks this game second in terms of pace on Saturday, and Booker gives me the explosiveness I need without paying up for someone like Harden. There's a definite opportunity for Booker to produce Harden-like numbers, as he's exceeded 40 DKFP in four out of his last ten games. The Pels are yielding 118 points-per-game, and they're struggling to contain the perimeter, which sets up well for him. I also predict low ownership for Booker alongside targets with name-value all over this slate tonight.
D'Angelo Russell, BKN at GS ($5,800): It's hard to turn away from Russell at this price, even as he heads into hostile territory in Oakland. I'm perfectly happy with a DKFP score in the mid-30's when I'm spending so little – it's likely that I'm not going to be able to get away from a Cook/Thompson – Durant stack tonight, so I'll need another reasonably-priced guard to make it happen. Russell only played 26 minutes against the Nuggets, so the Nets likely had an eye toward this game to play Russell more.
Collin Sexton, CLE at CHI ($4,900): Welcome to the big time, Collin! He's Cleveland's de-facto starter at point guard while George Hill (shoulder) recovers. Sexton was one of the most exciting players to watch in Las Vegas this summer. He's largely overlooked in this crowded rookie class, but he now finds himself in a position to make a statement. You could also pay a little bit more for Jordan Clarkson ($5,100) if you wanted a more reliable floor. Clarkson was the more significant beneficiary of Hill's absence in the first game, but I think that tide will turn sooner rather than later.
Other guards to consider:DeMar DeRozan, SA vs. HOU ($9,400), De'Aaron Fox, SAC vs. LAL ($7,100), Rajon Rondo (especially if Ball (ankle) is limited), LAL at SAC ($5,000)
FORWARDS
Julius Randle, NO vs. PHO ($6,900): I've already endorsed guys like George and Durant, so it makes sense to slide down a bit in this category. Nikola Mirotic (ankle) has a questionable tag, but I think it's likely that he'll play. If he's good to go, I might go elsewhere, but if any minutes restriction is implied after the morning shootaround, I'd pivot to Randle immediately. He's a decent play regardless of Mirotic's status, as the numbers show that he's consistently seeing 30 or more minutes per game, and currently boasts a season average of 41 DKFP per game. Not bad for a sub-$7K player.
Jaren Jackson, Jr, MEM vs. PHI ($5,200): I took in a bit of that low-scoring matchup against the Nuggets, and it was interesting to see how the team leaned on Jackson in the closing minutes. His defensive game was on point in that contest as he blocked three shots, collected three steals and grabbed seven rebounds. The Sixers come into Memphis on zero rest, and I like Jackson as a sneaky value play who could give you a diverse stat line for a decent price.
T.J. Warren, PHO at NO ($5,100): No offense to Ryan Anderson, but I think the starting job should go to Warren. Like the rest of the Suns, he's had his share of clunker games, but this is a fast-paced matchup that favors almost everyone. The metric to watch for Warren is minutes played – I'm inclined to think that the 42 minutes he logged against the Celtics isn't an aberration but more likely the beginning of a trend where we start to see less of Anderson as the season progresses.
Other forwards to consider:Josh Richardson, MIA vs. WAS ($7,400), Buddy Hield, SAC vs. LAL ($6,100), Davis Bertans, SA vs.HOU ($3,900)
CENTERS
Deandre Ayton, PHO at NO ($7,000): I'm not sure what to make of this Davis/Ayton matchup, but it will certainly be interesting to watch! The Brow and Embiid are obvious chalky plays tonight, but I'll begin my search for value here with Ayton, who will undoubtedly have his hands full against AD. I expect Ayton to rise to the occasion, however. He's already faced down guys like Marc Gasol, Steven Adams and Nikola Jokic successfully, so he won't be afraid to tackle Davis. He's currently averaging double-double numbers (15.7 points, 10.8 rebounds) and could be in line for one on Saturday.
Wendell Carter, Jr, CHI vs. CLE ($6,300): I might finally have to start fading Carter as his price inflates, but not quite yet. I'm definitely pro-Carter against Cleveland, where it appears that neither Larry Nance nor Tristan Thompson has done much to improve the Cavs' interior game. He's logged an average of 41.6 DKFP over his past five games, which is about ten points higher than his season average. I'm sure I sound like a broken record, but Carter is a lock for me until further notice (or more likely, until he's above $7k).
JaVale McGee, LAL at SAC ($6,200): McGee's turned out to be a pleasant surprise for LeBron and the Lakers, as his production has become more reliable than Luke Walton's job status. After toiling in a system that didn't favor the five, he's come into his own, averaging 14.5 points and 7.2 rebounds per game this season. I like this matchup against the un-rested Kings, and since the Lakers always find a way to give up a lead, this should be a close game where the starters will see a lot of minutes.
Other centers to consider:DeAndre Jordan, DAL vs. OKC ($7,200)
