This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
LAC vs. PHI (-1.5), O/U: 225.5
NO (-2) vs. WAS, O/U: 241.5
OKC vs. DET (-2.5), O/U: 215.5
CHA vs. BKN (-13.5), O/U: 223.5
ORL vs. TOR (-1.5), O/U: 218.5
DEN (-8.5) vs. HOU, O/U: 224
MEM (-4.5) vs. CHI, O/U: 226.5
MIA (-6.5) vs. MIN, O/U: 222.5
POR (-1.5) vs. SA, O/U: 231.5
NY vs. DAL (-5), O/U: 211
The NO-WAS matchup will be a popular target and rightfully so as it features the top spend-up option in Russell Westbrook and a massive 241.5 total. Lonzo Ball is expected to return while Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram would also make for viable run-backs as there will be plenty of value elsewhere to afford rostering multiple stars.
There is significant news to monitor in Detroit and Toronto as both teams have ruled the majority of their starters out. There will also be value in Chicago with the absence of Zach LaVine leaving a lot of usage up for grabs. Keep an eye out for starting lineups as they usually dictate the viability and popularity of value options.
Injuries to Monitor
Kawhi Leonard (foot): QUESTIONABLE
Leonard has missed three consecutive games due to soreness in his foot and is listed as questionable. Luke Kennard has been starting at small forward in his absence.
Zach LaVine (COVID-19 protocols): OUT
LaVine has entered the league's health and safety protocols and is expected to miss 10-14 days. It's unclear who will start at shooting guard, but Coby White, Garrett Temple and Denzel Valentine are candidates to see increased run.
Pascal Siakam (rest), Kyle Lowry (rest) and OG Anunoby (rest): OUT
Gary Trent (ankle) and DeAndre' Bembry (hamstring): DOUBTFUL
The Raptors will be extremely shorthanded tonight as Siakam, Lowry and Anunoby have been ruled out for rest while Trent and Bembry are considered doubtful. On the positive side, Fred VanVleet is expected to return after missing the past six games. Khem Birch and Malachi Flynn are likely to remain in the starting lineup while the forward spots are up for grabs. Yuta Watanabe and Stanley Johnson represent those who could see expanded roles.
Tobias Harris (knee): QUESTIONABLE
Harris has been dealing with lingering knee soreness and is listed as questionable for tonight. Mike Scott would likely start at power forward if Harris were to miss.
Jerami Grant (rest), Mason Plumlee (rest), Cory Joseph (ankle), Dennis Smith (knee), Wayne Ellington (rest) and Rodney McGruder (elbow): OUT
The Pistons will be missing six players for the front-end of a back-to-back against the Thunder. It's unclear who will start, but whoever does will be appealing from a value perspective with so much usage up for grabs. Killian Hayes, Saben Lee, Frank Jackson and Hamidou Diallo should all be in line for extended minutes.
Devonte' Graham (quad): OUT
Graham has been ruled out due to a bruised quad. Caleb Martin could be in line for another start after his strong performance earlier in the week while Brad Wanamaker could see increased run.
P.J. Washington (ankle): DOUBTFUL
Washington will likely miss a third consecutive game as he recovers from an ankle sprain. Bismack Biyombo has been starting at center in his absence.
Elite Players
Guard:
If it seems like I write the same thing about Russell Westbrook ($11,000) every slate, it's because for the most part, I do. He's coming off another triple-double and another 60-plus DK points. He's the NBA's best fantasy player and the salary is still too low even though he's the most expensive since he should be at least 12K. There won't be any trouble affording Westbrook tonight with all the value available and tonight's matchup against the Pelicans projects a massive 241.5 total. Roster him.
Paul George ($9,100) has been outstanding in the absence of Kawhi Leonard and has topped 50 DK points in four consecutive games. If Kawhi misses again tonight, George becomes the top option at shooting guard.
Center:
Nikola Jokic ($10,900) is coming off his third triple-double in four contests and scored at least 50 DK points in seven straight. He's back to seeing major usage again in the absence of Jamal Murray and it's only a matter of time before we see a massive ceiling game.
The center position is loaded tonight and Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,700) has recently been the safest of the bunch with 50 DK points in each of the last 10 while topping 60 three times over that span. Minnesota's matchup against Miami is especially intriguing as there is no love lost between Towns and Jimmy Butler.
If Tobias Harris is ruled out, Joel Embiid ($10,500) would become my preferred spend-up option at the position based on the salary savings and relative upside. He's coming off 64.5 DK points in 33 minutes last time out and tonight's matchup against the Clippers should stay competitive.
Forward:
The salary for Zion Williamson ($10,000) has justifiably reached five-figures for a prime matchup against the Wizards. He's been consistent all season and recently started flashing a ceiling with two efforts over 65 DK points from his last 10. The expected return of Lonzo Ball will likely sap some usage and I'd prefer to spend up elsewhere.
I've been fading Luka Doncic ($10,800) for the past month, but he has to be mentioned as the most expensive forward on the slate. He's failed to reach 56 DK points in 10 consecutive outings and tonight's matchup against the Knicks is anything but ideal. His unpopularity would be the only reason to roster him, but he needs at least 70 DK points to provide significant leverage and I'm not chasing that.
Expected Chalk
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons will be without four regular starters as Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, Cory Joseph and Wayne Ellington have all been ruled out. Starting lineups will dictate popularity. Killian Hayes ($3,500) or Saben Lee ($3,100) will start at point guard while Frank Jackson ($3,000) is likely to start at shooting guard. I'd expect them to be quite popular with such low salaries. Hamidou Diallo ($4,200) is viable off the bench, but I'd expect him to be chalky if he started. Isaiah Stewart ($4,400) is expected to get the start at center. And after putting up 42.25 DK points in 33 minutes the last time Plumlee was out, I'd expect Stewart to also be relatively popular.
Caleb Martin ($3,600), if he starts
The Hornets will be without Devonte' Graham and have Brad Wanamaker listed as questionable for tonight's matchup against the Nets. Martin got the start at shooting guard in place of Terry Rozier on Tuesday and posted 41.5 DK points over 35 minutes. If he starts again, I'd expect him to be popular at only $3,600.
Value Picks
Brandon Ingram ($8,500)
Ingram has scored at least 44 DK points in three consecutive games and is coming off 57 on Monday. The Pelicans are in an ideal spot tonight against the Wizards in a matchup featuring a 241.5 total.
John Wall ($8,200)
I'll keep recommending Wall based on upside until he gets a proper salary increase. He's coming off 52.75 DK points last time out and will continue to see big minutes and get all the usage he wants as the Rockets remain shorthanded.
Lonzo Ball ($7,500)
Ball is expected to return from a four-game absence just in time for a prime matchup against the Wizards. He's topped 50 DK points in two of his last three games and his salary is just too low for a player with that type of upside playing in a pace-up spot.
Saddiq Bey ($4,800)
Bey is the only Pistons' starter who hasn't been ruled out tonight. He should see plenty of minutes and usage to make value with the upside to hit a ceiling. With so many more reasonable options available, it's possible Bey goes overlooked.
Khem Birch ($3,800)
Birch has scored 27 DK points in consecutive starts at center for the shorthanded Raptors. He should see plenty of run again tonight in a favorable matchup against his former team, the Magic.
Yuta Watanabe ($3,000), if he starts
The Raptors will be significantly undermanned tonight, especially at forward as Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby have been ruled out. Minimum salary and extended minutes would make Watanabe an appealing value option, although the opportunity cost could be substantial with all the options in that salary range.
