Pitching 3D: Fallers

What goes up must come down. The last edition of Pitching 3D covered the pitchers who saw their rankings rise significantly in my DT system versus where they're chosen according to NFBC ADP. This time around we look at the other side of the coin, covering the pitchers whose stock fell appreciably according to my rankings.

All of the rankings and categorical scores can be found on this spreadsheet. For a more in-depth look at individual hurlers or the system itself, feel free to consult one of the other columns I've written this season starting with February 2nd's Ranking Fantasy Pitchers, With a Twist.

In a way, today's list is a continuation of the pitchers who missed the cut, as these are the players who rank low on my list when compared to the consensus. Readers will notice a common thread among players covered in this piece, namely those pitchers who are coming off of career years, who I've dumped into the 28-to-32-point bins due to statistical warts and/or spotty track records. The biggest variable of interest appears to involve strikeout rates, which NFBC drafters have been more willing to overlook, but which I emphasize in fantasy land.

Let's deep-dive the individual players whose rankings suffer in my system.

Kyle Hendricks
DT: 31 (32 points)
NFBC ADP: 16
Difference: -15

I want to start with this: Hendricks is a joy to watch, and his ability to Tom Glavine (Read: Throw soft stuff away) his way through the National League is rooted in real skill. He's demonstrated the pitch command to substantiate his incredible walk rate (career 2.0 BB/9), and until batters adapt their collective approach, his real-life ERA is expected to outpace his FIP. That said, strikeouts are a category in fantasy, and one in which Hendricks falls short. He relies more on batted-ball results than any other pitcher on the Cubs staff, and those balls in play are much more likely to fall for hits given the outlier season of the Cubs defense last season, and the changes from 2016 to 2017 (namely Dexter Fowler out, Kyle Schwarber in). Hendricks hasn't pitched more than 190 innings in a season and won a solid-yet-unspectacular 16 games for the 103-win Cubs last year, so I just don't see the justification for his high ranking on NFBC.

Aaron Sanchez
DT: 32 (32 points)
NFBC ADP: 24
Difference: -8

Sanchez has been a bit of an enigma in his pro career so far, as he has spent time in the bullpen, endured multiple mechanical adjustments and has struggled to stay on the mound. Prior to 2016, the most combined innings that Sanchez had ever thrown in a pro season was 133.1 frames (2014), followed by the 102 combined innings that he pitched in 2015. Then he rocketed past all previous workloads with his 192-inning effort of 2016, a campaign that included an additional 11.2 frames of postseason play. Massive jumps in workload have long been a yellow flag with pitchers, and the Blue Jays knew by midsummer that they were throwing caution to the wind. Sanchez shot way past where the Blue Jays had him pegged for innings last season, and the repercussions for such an unprecedented (for Sanchez) increase in workload — if there is one for him — is likely to rear its ugly head this season. Top it off with a below-average strikeout rate (20.4 percent, 7.5 K/9 in 2016 and 7.1 K/9 career), a league-average walk rate and a likely-to-regress BABiP of .268, and we'll see if his stats come out clean on the other side. The 15-2 record was shiny last year, but pursuing Sanchez on those merits is to be set up for disappointment.

Danny Duffy
DT: 39 (31 points)
NFBC ADP: 23
Difference: -16

Last season showed that Duffy has greater strikeout upside than most of the other pitchers on today's list, but the 9.2 K/9 (25.7 percent) was a complete outlier for a pitcher with a career rate of just 7.1 K/9 (18.6 percent) entering last season. The breakout in the walk department was even more pronounced; he walked just 5.8 percent of batters (2.1 BB/9) after posting a rate of 10.0 percent (3.8 BB/9) in his more than 440 frames of baseball at the highest level leading up to 2016.

He did gain a tick of velocity last season and made some small mechanical adjustments, but the changes were relatively slight compared to the degree of improvement in the numbers. As an over-the-top pitcher, Duffy has a tendency to miss targets high and low when his motion is mistimed, and pitchers of his ilk tend to A) give up a high frequency of fly balls (and thus home runs) and B) have command that's worse than indicated by walk rates. Duffy fits the description on both counts, and though his homer-reducing home ballpark should help to bring down his exorbitant home run rate of last season, he still figures to give up more bombs than the average pitcher and is likely to give back some of his gains in walks. In sum, the guy with a 3.51 ERA in his breakout campaign is likely to see Ks and walks regress closer to the mean (bad for both rates), and though some positive regression to his homer rate is expected, it's unlikely to cross over on his list of pros and cons.

Rick Porcello
DT: 46 (31 points)
NFBC ADP: 26
Difference: -20

It's largely accepted that Porcello played over his head last season and few (if any) expect him to repeat his surprise Cy-winning stats, and though his ADP ranking keeps him outside the elite class of pitchers, there still appears to be some considerable helium in his ADP, with at least some expectation that his gains last season will carry over into 2017. Considering his track record of deplorable run prevention and the fact that his peripheral stats showed only modest improvement over previous years, I am more bearish on his ability to repeat. His improvement in walks was incredible; he allowed just 1.3 BB/9 last season but it left little room for improvement and is likely to regress. He allowed less than a hit per inning for the first time in his career, accomplishing the modest feat thanks to a low .269 BABiP, and the combination of low hits and few walks fueled a 1.01 WHIP that was 34 points better than anything that Porcello had ever posted in a full season during his previous seven years in the league. As with Sanchez, try not to be swayed by last season's flashy win-loss record (22-4).

Tanner Roark
DT: 64 (29 points)
NFBC ADP: 33
Difference: -31

The Roark ranking might be the most contentious on the list. Unlike players like Porcello and Sanchez, Roark has done well before, and his stat-line from 2016 was not bolstered by an exceedingly high — yet unstable — count of wins. He's a popular sleeper choice because he seems to have flown under the radar despite having produced two excellent seasons in the last three years, with the doubt generated by his rough year in between likely casting a shadow. The reason he drops in this system is partly due to the ugliness and recentness of his 2015 season, in addition to a pedestrian K-rate (career 6.6 K/9, 18.1 percent) that places him far below the ADP for NFBC.

The Ks did take a step forward last year with a career-high 7.4 K/9 (20.1 percent) but the walk-rate came up with it, vaulting from 2.1 BB/9 in 2015 to 3.1 BB/9 last season, leaving him with a career-low K/BB of just 2.36 when all was said and done. He did cut the home run rate in half, bringing it back in line with previous seasons at 0.7 HR/9, but a backslide in the homer department represents a threat to his ERA. I also find it interesting that so many people with whom I've spoken seem ready to hand-wave Roark's poor 2015 season as an aberration because he was pitching in the bullpen (whereas he has been very successful in his two-plus seasons as a starter), yet most pitchers get better when pitching in relief, while a struggle of any kind should be viewed as a negative on his resume, not a positive.

Matt Moore
DT: 65 (29 points)
NFBC ADP: 46
Difference: -19

Perhaps the system is a bit too low on Moore, but in defense of the ranking he is feeling more and more like Trevor Bauer, a player who is loaded with potential but can't seem to reach it (or make the adjustments necessary to do so), and I'm starting to doubt whether he ever will take a leap in performance, as the hope and faith that the former top prospect will discover ace-dom has disappeared in the rearview mirror.

When Moore broke through into the majors, he had a stable delivery but struggled to repeat his timing, a common issue for young players, and he had a tendency to pitch with an off-center setup that interfered with his release point. The latter issue is potentially a quick, easy fix, and though the timing problem is sometimes fixed quickly, other times it can take a pitcher years to discover an ideal release point that he can repeat. That was five years ago, but Moore never fixed the issues and continues to struggle with repeating his release or reaching ideal extension, plus he has added an imbalance in which he leans back toward second base during his stride (I call this a "rock 'n' roll" pattern), further hampering his ability to find a release point. Long story short, I think there's reason behind the history of poor ratios, despite the solid K rates, good stuff to dream on and a great home ballpark for pitchers.

Aaron Nola
DT: 72 (28 points)
NFBC ADP: 54
Difference: -18

This one's tough, because I really like what Nola brings to the table. I dig his delivery and he earns seven points in the strikeouts category, one of only two pitchers ranked after SP60 to earn such a high score for K-rate (the other is a prospect). I'm just that worried about his elbow, and I fear that there's a good chance that he falls well short of the 120 to 135 innings that are built into his projection (worth three points in the IP category). Mix in his low-90s velocity and concurrent need to hit spots in order to be effective, along with the negative repercussions that elbow injuries commonly have on command, and Nola appears to be riding on razor-thin margins that are entirely too dependent on health to earn a much higher ranking.

J.A. Happ
DT: 74 (28 points)
NFBC ADP: 51
Difference: -23

The pitchers in the faller category tend to be missing one of two things: strikeouts and track record. Happ lacks both. The southpaw struck out just 7.5 batters per nine innings last season, a figure which was right in line with his career rate of 7.6 K/9, and he hasn't registered a rate above 8.0 K/9 since 2012. The ERA has improved for five consecutive years, which on the surface might indicate vast improvement, but considering that the ERA was above 4.00 from 2010 to 2014 establishes his weak baseline of run prevention. His walk frequency has been better over the past three years than the horrible rates from earlier in his career, but even that improvement has just brought him near league average. His 20 wins were a clear fluke, as the 34-year-old Happ hadn't posted more than 11 victories in any of the previous six seasons, and in fact he only won as many as 12 games one other time in his career (2009), and he has never thrown more than 200 frames in a season. The only sources of optimism come from a wins count and an ERA that are both likely to regress — perhaps heavily — leaving Happ as an overpriced pitcher on draft day.