This article is part of our The Z Files series.
The League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) auctions took place recently. Since I don't participate in the American and National League only leagues (I play in Mixed LABR), no one asks me what I thought of those auctions. So, I decided to ask myself a few questions.
Q: You tweeted that you weren't surprised Jose Altuve sold for more than Mike Trout in the AL auction. Are you crazy?
A: Yes, but my craziness transcends fantasy baseball. In a mixed league, I have Trout ranked ahead of Altuve but in AL-only, I'll take the second baseman. Altuve is one of the few players matching Trout in terms of track record and durability. Most everyone is expecting fewer homers, as am I. There's also some concern whether Altuve will steal as much if he's hitting out of the three-hole. Did you know Altuve and Trout swiped an identical 30 bags in 2016? Perhaps he'll curtail running some, but you don't completely eliminate an aspect of your game that's been so effective. Not to mention, how sure are we Trout takes off as much as last season? The kicker is the player pool. We talk about how deep middle infield is, but that's in mixed. Given we all see the inventory differently, second base isn't especially deep in AL-only while the outfield pool is bountiful, especially in the $12 to $21 range.
Q: OK, we've established you're crazy. Is Larry Schechter also crazy? The guy's pitching is risky city. Not only did
The League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) auctions took place recently. Since I don't participate in the American and National League only leagues (I play in Mixed LABR), no one asks me what I thought of those auctions. So, I decided to ask myself a few questions.
Q: You tweeted that you weren't surprised Jose Altuve sold for more than Mike Trout in the AL auction. Are you crazy?
A: Yes, but my craziness transcends fantasy baseball. In a mixed league, I have Trout ranked ahead of Altuve but in AL-only, I'll take the second baseman. Altuve is one of the few players matching Trout in terms of track record and durability. Most everyone is expecting fewer homers, as am I. There's also some concern whether Altuve will steal as much if he's hitting out of the three-hole. Did you know Altuve and Trout swiped an identical 30 bags in 2016? Perhaps he'll curtail running some, but you don't completely eliminate an aspect of your game that's been so effective. Not to mention, how sure are we Trout takes off as much as last season? The kicker is the player pool. We talk about how deep middle infield is, but that's in mixed. Given we all see the inventory differently, second base isn't especially deep in AL-only while the outfield pool is bountiful, especially in the $12 to $21 range.
Q: OK, we've established you're crazy. Is Larry Schechter also crazy? The guy's pitching is risky city. Not only did he buy David Price, he supported him with Felix Hernandez, Dallas Keuchel and Drew Smyly.
A: When it comes to fantasy baseball, Larry has been called a lot of things, all good, and crazy is not one of them. I love what he did, as that quartet cost $49. Price and Keuchel came with injury discounts while Keuchel and Hernandez are former aces trying to reinvent themselves. Every one of those hurlers can earn north of $20. Granted, Price may not throw a single pitch, but the other three can easily return $49. Plus, don't forget someone will be taking Price's spot if it turns out his elbow is seriously injured. Individually, each of the purchases is high risk, high reward. Picking up four such players mitigates the risk, albeit at the expense of likely reward. I love accepting the baked-in discount on each.
Q: Earlier you said second base is shallow in AL-only. Really?
A: I have no reason to lie. Let's look at who was purchased in the middle. One team has Raul Mondesi at second, despite his not being assured of the job. Another squad has Tyler Saladino at shortstop. Granted, Saladino is the likely starter at second for the White Sox, but Yoan Moncada looms. Middle infield is where it gets sketchy. The following were all bought in the auction, hence active for their respective owners: Yolmer Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, Chad Pinder, Whit Merrifield and Franklin Barreto. The team with Sanchez, another possible place-holder until Moncada is ready, nabbed Joey Wendle in reserve. The only other middle infielder drafted in reserve was Tim Beckham. That's a lot of teams with marginal at best middle infielders in their active lineup.
Q: Switching to the NL, would you have topped Derek Carty's $44 bid for Clayton Kershaw? After all, you've been preaching to take him first overall in mixed drafts.
A: I honestly don't know. What I do know is I would have jumped to $44 before Derek and then crossed my fingers I wouldn't have to decide to go $46. Given bid values aren't accurate enough to treat as a stop sign, presently my number is $44.
Q: If the bid value isn't that accurate, why not go $45 or $46?
A: You must draw the line somewhere. Why not $45? If OK with $45, why not $46, then $47, then $48? Right now, $44 is my limit, not because Kershaw is worth $44, but rather due to the amount of budget left for the rest of my team. I know, you can question whether there's a difference between $214 and $216 left, but again, the line needs to be set somewhere.
Q: How do you determine where to draw the line?
A: To be honest, it's in flux, even during the auction. Ultimately, it's going to revolve around what I feel other starting pitchers will sell for. If I were to shadow-draft NL LABR, I'd prefer Madison Bumgarner at $30. I talk about how Kerhsaw is a $70-plus player if budget were distributed 50/50, but keep in mind all pitchers would leap. In the upcoming NL Tout Wars auction, I have the privilege of nominating the first player. I may toss out Bumgarner, or Max Scherzer, and if they're going at a higher number than LABR, I may raise my Kershaw limit.
Q: Are there any observations about the NL pool akin to shallow middle infield in the AL pool?
A: First let's look at the NL middle infield inventory. Dilson Herrera, Gavin Cecchini, Alen Hanson, J.P. Crawford and Amed Rosario were all bought. However, several middle infielders were snagged in reserve including Erick Aybar, Ozzie Albies, Derek Dietrich, Stephen Drew, Adam Frazier, Jace Peterson, Luis Sardinas, T.J. Rivera and Chase Utley. OK, not exactly quality, but the quantity exceeds that in the AL. There will be fewer dead spots among the middle infield in the senior circuit.
The spot I consider shallow is closer. Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon are the only established options. I'm fine with Seung Hwan Oh. That's three out of 15 teams where I see a top option with no baggage. Next are Wade Davis and Jeurys Familia. I'll take the injury discount on Davis in mixed leagues since replacing him isn't a huge issue. However, in NL-only, it's different. Davis sold for $15 (one buck below Oh) which is a decent chunk of change, even with the injury discount. I do like the idea of buying Familia, then backing him with Addison Reed since I'll use Reed in NL-only even if he's not getting saves. In NL LABR, Familia and Reed cost a combined $15 – sign me up! One way or another, I want one of the better closers. If I had Kershaw or Bumgarner, I'd likely try for the Mets duo. If I get Jansen (I would have raised the $22 bid to at least $23), I'd likely pass on the big-three arms and look in the next tier for my anchor. To tie this into an earlier question, my number for Kershaw also incorporates where I see the closer prices.
Q: Are you willing to answer reader questions in the comments section?
A: Yes, but they have to ask me nicely. Who am I kidding, I'll answer regardless.
