This article is part of our MLB Barometer series.
Every fantasy owner has his own unique strategy for attacking the four standard categories to which starting pitchers contribute. The last couple of years, ace starters have trended upward and are being taken within the first five rounds of draft leagues more frequently. This has particularly been evident in high-stakes contests like the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) and more recently, within industry drafts like LABR and Tout Wars, where early round emphasis has traditionally been placed on hitters. Much of this shift is attributed to the consistency that the aces provide. So long as an ace's season does not succumb to a major injury, we rarely see dramatic drop-offs in production like we saw with Felix Hernandez last season.
Those who perennially claim to be blessed with the ability of unearthing this year's versions of Dallas Keuchel or Chris Archer, and win leagues without drafting at least one ace, are either lucky or delusional. Of course, there are skilled roto players with fine scouting abilities who are good at predicting breakout pitchers. But one cannot simply rely on these breakouts alone. You have to be able to hit the breakouts supplementary to the established ace or aces to finish in the top 10 to 20 percentile.
Looking at the best teams from the 2015 NFBC Main Event, you will notice that later round pitcher gems are usually part of a well-constructed staff that typically consists of a higher-round ace. Glenn Schroter, the $125,000 winner of last season's Main Event, hit on Keuchel in the middle of his draft. But Glenn drafted Madison Bumgarner at the second and third round turn in this 15-team event. He also had two other important parts to his superfecta -- Jake Arrieta and Jacob deGrom, all before the ninth round.
The runner-up to Glenn, Don Warner, had a late-round Danny Salazar pay monster dividends for him. But Don also had Arrieta, and started his draft with Clayton Kershaw. Fourth-place Craig Kielinski took two aces early (David Price, Gerrit Cole) in his first three picks, still built a solid offense and had late-round selections of Archer and Jake Odorizzi help bolster his rotation.
Finally, RotoWire's own Chris Liss had an incredible season in the Main Event, finishing 11th overall, but had the misfortune of drawing Glenn in his Vegas league and inevitably had to accept second place. Chris started his draft with Kershaw and solidified his staff with the likes of Francisco Liriano after round 10, Salazar late and Noah Syndergaard in free-agent bidding.
I think you get the picture. Even if you are prescient enough to identify this season's difference-making starting pitchers, it's important to grab your team's anchor within the first few rounds, keep the balance with your hitters and take your chances later.
Last week, I discussed undervalued hitters in relation to their NFBC average draft position (ADP). Although the following names might not have the impact that Arrieta, Keuchel, Archer and Salazar had last year, they are pitchers who portend to market inefficiencies early on this March, and should outearn their current ADP slots.
Jaime Garcia (STL, ADP: 224)
The only real question we have when considering Garcia is whether he is capable of staying healthy for a whole season and topping 30 starts. The 29-year old has been a part of the Cardinals' rotation since 2010 and has yet to ever surpass 200 innings in a season. Garcia has dealt with just about every pitcher-related surgery imaginable, including Tommy John and rotator cuff surgery. When Garcia is on the mound, he is absolutely filthy. He manages a solid arsenal of five pitches that includes a nasty cutter and an inning-ending slider. He was extremely efficient last year, throwing less than 100 pitches in seven or more innings in nine of his 20 starts. The left-hander typically pitches to contact and maintained a 61-percent groundball rate last season with an incredibly low 2.08 walks per nine. His strikeout rate of 19 percent hovered around career levels, though a slight improvement is certainly plausible in 2016. Plenty of starts against weak offenses like the Brewers and Reds only helps strengthen his appeal. I'd be willing to grab Garcia 50 spots ahead of his ADP if the devil guaranteed me 150 innings. But alas, there are no guarantees in the wonderful world of fantasy baseball.
Kevin Gausman (BAL, ADP: 239)
Gausman was a popular late-round pick in NFBC leagues, and for good reason. He was the fourth overall pick in the 2012 draft and has a fastball that tops out over 100 mph (95 mph average). Gausman has maintained nearly a strikeout per inning over four seasons between the minors and majors. The biggest issue is his mismanagement by the Orioles, and the lack of stability in the rotation as Gausman was constantly shuttled between Triple-A Norfolk and the big club. Looking at the 2016 rotation, Gausman is clearly the most talented and should have every opportunity to cement himself as the ace of the staff. The AL East continues to be a tough place for pitchers to garner most of their starts, but that appears to be the only downside. Gausman, who improved his walk rate and groundball rate, is first on my list of post-200 picks to take his game to the level Chris Archer did last season. None of this is a secret to competitors in my NFBC leagues, and I intend to do battle with them on draft day for Gausman's services.
Ian Kennedy (KC, ADP: 246)
At first glance, Kennedy may appear aptly priced, until you dig in and notice he is the 66th starting pitcher off the board in drafts this year. Typically, a move out of Petco Park and the NL West to the AL Central doesn't look promising for a pitcher whose ERA has been higher than 4.00 the last three years. But Petco isn't the pitchers haven it once was, and Kennedy moves from a team with baseball's worst defense to a team in the Royals who have the best. Per Fangraphs, the Royals' outfield alone is projected for more runs saved than any entire team in baseball. You'll notice that Kennedy's xFIP has been three-quarters of a run lower than his ERA in two of those three down seasons. More bright side: Kennedy's fastball velocity has been up two ticks (from 90 to 92 mph) the last two seasons, and he has maintained an above-league average 25-percent strikeout rate the last three years. It is doubtful that Kennedy has a 2015 Verlander-like resurgence in ERA and WHIP, but he certainly has value as your fifth or sixth starting pitcher.
Nathan Karns (SEA, ADP: 308)
Yet another big American League arm, Karns will have to battle it out this spring to win a rotation spot with his new team. Karns had a strong showing in his first full season with the Rays last year -- 7-5, 8.8 strikeouts per nine with reasonable ratios (3.67 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) over 26 starts. Karns worked with three pitches last year -- a knuckle curve, changeup and a modest 92 mph fastball with good movement. Karns is battling James Paxton for the fifth spot in the rotation, but both Paxton and veteran Hisashi Iwakuma have dealt with various injuries the last couple seasons. It would not be shocking to see Karns make the Mariners' rotation prior to Opening Day and improve upon last year's ratios, stringing together 30-plus starts. With that year of experience under his belt, Karns should be able to increase his durability and reduce pitch counts to take his starts into the seventh inning and beyond more often this year. Clearly, NFBC players have the same opinion as Karns' ADP is about 40 spots higher than Paxton's.
Rick Porcello (BOS, ADP: 321)
Porcello signed for big money to come the Red Sox last year, and the season ended as one to forget. Porcello went 9-15 in 28 starts and finished with an ERA bordering the disastrous 5.00 mark -- 4.96 to be exact. The second half of his season was a stellar improvement over his first half. Porcello hit the disabled list for the first time in his career not long after the All-Star break with tricep soreness and inflammation that might have been bothering him earlier in the year. He balanced out his first half horrendousness (6.08 ERA) with a respectable 3.49 ERA, all while increasing his strikeouts-per-nine from 7.1 to 8.6. Porcello also maintained his patented control, holding batters to less than two walks per nine over the course of the season, despite his penchant for allowing hits in bunches. AL East opponents will be anything but a walk in the park for him (pun intended), but his second-half improvements are a step in the right direction looking to 2016. I have despised and avoided him like the plague during his seven-year career, but this season, at this price, I'm in the market.
Rubby De La Rosa (ARI, ADP: 404)
I likely will own plenty Rubby shares this season -- and it won't be my first rodeo. Most of us have that list of late-round arms we just can't quit, and most times, those roto crushes lead to ratio punishment. Although De La Rosa spent most of last season in the free-agent pools of 12-teamers, those who drafted and held him in 15-teamers took some ratio burns from that scalding 4.67 ERA and 1.36 over 32 starts. His struggles are well-documented when you look at the splits: he crushes righties (.611 oOPS) and lefties crushed him (.949). Many believe the book has been written on Rubby De La Rosa, as he's in his fifth major league season as a post-hype 27-year old, and that his inability to strike lefties out won't be solved in the course of this offseason. On the plus side, De La Rosa has a powerful arm with great velocity (max fastball: 100.1, average: 94.2) and boasted an above-average 12-percent swinging-strike rate last season. He will begin the year as the Diamondbacks' fourth starter and is someone I'm willing to take a leap of faith with at the end of my drafts. Your eighth or ninth starter can be spot-started for attractive matchups anyway. And if by some chance he figures out those lefties, watch out.
