This article is part of our Pitching 3D series.
Despite my affinity for pitching mechanics, they don't play a huge role in my fantasy rankings, though a pitcher's delivery will inevitably tilt the scales. I do tend to favor pitchers with efficient mechanics and dodge those with mechanical red flags. There exists a natural relationship between performance and mechanical efficiency and it can have an impact on fantasy categories; for example, power pitchers with big torque tend to rack up the Ks while pitchers who can repeat the delivery will enjoy the benefits to their walk rates and ERA. The pitchers at the top of the rankings tend to have strong deliveries and 2016 is no exception, so the influence of mechanics is not as prevalent for the pitchers in today's group as it might be further down the list.
There shouldn't be a tough decision at the top, as Clayton Kershaw deserves to be the first pitcher off the board in nearly all fantasy drafts (with possible exception in dynasty leagues), and the only real question is whether to take a pitcher in the first round given that he won't last until the second. Behind Kershaw, however, there is a glut of outstanding options that populate the second and third rounds; these are the
Despite my affinity for pitching mechanics, they don't play a huge role in my fantasy rankings, though a pitcher's delivery will inevitably tilt the scales. I do tend to favor pitchers with efficient mechanics and dodge those with mechanical red flags. There exists a natural relationship between performance and mechanical efficiency and it can have an impact on fantasy categories; for example, power pitchers with big torque tend to rack up the Ks while pitchers who can repeat the delivery will enjoy the benefits to their walk rates and ERA. The pitchers at the top of the rankings tend to have strong deliveries and 2016 is no exception, so the influence of mechanics is not as prevalent for the pitchers in today's group as it might be further down the list.
There shouldn't be a tough decision at the top, as Clayton Kershaw deserves to be the first pitcher off the board in nearly all fantasy drafts (with possible exception in dynasty leagues), and the only real question is whether to take a pitcher in the first round given that he won't last until the second. Behind Kershaw, however, there is a glut of outstanding options that populate the second and third rounds; these are the aces that will lead most fantasy staffs this season.
Once Kershaw is off the board, who's next? According to the RotoWire composite rankings, these are the next six pitchers behind Kershaw (overall ranking in parentheses):
Max Scherzer (17)
Jake Arrieta (20)
Chris Sale (25)
Madison Bumgarner (30)
Jose Fernandez (31)
David Price (32)
Let's break down each pitcher's case for being the next arm off the board, with an emphasis on the fantasy-relevant stats over the past three seasons. At the end, I'll post my personal rankings for the six pitchers under the microscope today. The major-league rankings are in parentheses for each category, with an asterisk (*) denoting a season in which the pitcher failed to qualify (minimum 162 IP) and ties represented by a lower-case "t."
Max Scherzer
Scherzer was unstoppable in his first half-season for the Nats, posting a 1.82 ERA and 0.775 WHIP with a K:BB ratio of 139:14 in 118.2 innings through his first 16 starts. Opposing batters had just a .489 OPS against Scherzer, who got the first-half jump on the NL Cy Young race before a second-half swoon (3.85 ERA and 20 home runs allowed in 110.0 innings) put him behind the pack. The K:BB ratio was still there in the second half, including his 17-strikeout near-perfect game (an error was the only flaw) in his final turn of the season, and his final count of 276 strikeouts against 34 walks in 228.2 innings gave him the best ratio (8.12:1 K:BB) in the majors.
Here are his fantasy-relevant stats and the corresponding major-league ranks over the last three seasons:
| 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | |
| ERA | 2.79 (11) | 3.15 (26) | 2.90 (11) |
| WHIP | 0.918 (4) | 1.175 (28) | 0.970 (3) |
| Strikeouts | 276 (2) | 252 (3) | 240 (2) |
| Wins | 14 (14t) | 18 (4t) | 21 (1) |
Scherzer is a strikeout machine who has ranked among the top three pitchers in the majors for his raw K-count in each of the last three seasons. No other pitcher can make that claim. He has been remarkably consistent in the fantasy categories and carries the upside of a top ranking in all four. The big change last year was a walk rate that was cut in half from previous seasons, and there could easily be some WHIP regression if he gives back some of those gains.
Jake Arrieta
As discussed in the article on the intriguing arms of the NL Central, Arrieta has been a different pitcher ever since he found a consistent timing pattern with his lift-and-stride, a factor which lends some credence to his sudden leap of performance from 2013 to 2014. The right-hander had the best fantasy stats of any hurler not named Kershaw last season with an effort that earned Arrieta the NL Cy Young.
| 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | |
| ERA | 1.77 (2) | 2.53 (10*) | 4.78 (77*) |
| WHIP | 0.865 (2) | 0.989 (5*) | 1.327 (61*) |
| Strikeouts | 236 (6) | 167 (37) | 60 (226t) |
| Wins | 22 (1) | 10 (69t) | 5 (154t) |
He fell just a half-dozen frames short of qualifying in 2014 with 156.2 innings pitched, but he struck out more than a batter-per-inning with a 27 percent K-rate that he matched in 2015 in 70 additional innings. Arrieta led the majors in both hit rate and home run rate among qualifying starting pitchers last season, and though low hit rates with tiny BABIPs (Arrieta's was .247 in 2015) are often brushed aside due to assumed regression, those stats can be indicative on the extremes, and Arrieta's penchant for weak contact was tied to the quality of his stuff, including multiple breaking pitches of devastation that are offset by mid-90s velocity.
Chris Sale
The delivery might look ugly, with raised elbows and long wings that have earned the nickname of "The Condor," but Sale finishes with a near-perfect delivery at release point. There are some natural concerns when a pitcher has the high-octane stuff, lanky frame and mechanical red flags of Sale, but he has pitched 789 innings over the last four seasons. He had a scary flare-up with his left elbow in April 2014 and got a late start to last season due to foot issues, potentially adding to the injury-related concerns for 2016 and beyond.
| 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | |
| ERA | 3.41 (27) | 2.17 (3) | 3.07 (17) |
| WHIP | 1.088 (14) | 0.966 (4) | 1.073 (10) |
| Strikeouts | 274 (3) | 208 (10) | 226 (4) |
| Wins | 13 (23t) | 12 (50t) | 11 (51t) |
All pitchers get hurt, and Sale's delivery might scare some off, but in single-year leagues I have no problem rolling the dice. His K upside is too great to ignore, and confidence grows with every passing season of at least 26 starts (he's had four in a row). Mechanics are only part of the injury equation, and another piece is genetic – it's impossible to know his joint integrity, ligament strength, etc. Of greater concern is the stretch where he was lit last season, including a 4.38 ERA over his last 12 starts, though a sudden vulnerability to the long ball masked an impressive 104 strikeouts and just 18 walks over that 76-inning stretch. The biggest knock against Sale has been the wins category, but those are fickle and his offensive run support will likely improve with the offseason acquisitions of Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie.
Madison Bumgarner
The consensus on Bumgarner a year ago was that he would succumb to the ridiculous workload that he endured in 2014, which included 270 innings split between the regular season and the playoffs. He responded with the best strikeout rate (9.6 K/9) and lowest walk rate (1.6 BB/9) while starting 32 games.
| 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | |
| ERA | 2.93 (12) | 2.98 (21) | 2.77 (8) |
| WHIP | 1.008 (6) | 1.090 (13) | 1.033 (7) |
| Strikeouts | 234 (7) | 219 (9) | 199 (13t) |
| Wins | 18 (6t) | 18 (4t) | 13 (32t) |
Bumgarner was fourth in the majors in K:BB at 6:1, behind Sale, Kershaw and Scherzer. He has an incredibly-efficient delivery that earns an A on the mechanics report card, including impeccable repetition and one of the most consistent release points in the game today. He might lack the vaulted ceilings of Scherzer or Sale, but Bumgarner is perhaps the surest bet this side of Kershaw for a season of ace-level fantasy stats across the board, as he has finished among the top 13 in 10 of 12 possible fantasy categories over the last three seasons, the most among the pitchers on this list (Scherzer joins him if going to top 14).
Jose Fernandez
Fernandez is my favorite pitcher to watch, and possibly no pitcher carries a higher ceiling in a dynasty format. The fastball is one of the hardest in the majors, the Defector is one of the nastiest pitches that I have ever seen and the right-hander has A-grade mechanics. However, the Marlins have already said that they will limit the 2016 workload for the 23-year old Fernandez, exercising caution in his first full season since undergoing Tommy John surgery.
| 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | |
| ERA | 2.92 (12*) | 2.44 (8*) | 2.19 (2) |
| WHIP | 1.160 (23*) | 0.948 (3*) | 0.979 (4) |
| Strikeouts | 79 (148) | 70 (194t) | 216 (8) |
| Wins | 6 (129t) | 4 (202t) | 12 (40t) |
In single-year leagues, the innings cap bumps him down, as even elite performance can't overcome the impact of 30 additional innings when there are options that could be just as strong on a per-inning basis. He might be the most valuable pitching commodity on the planet when it comes to long-term keeper leagues, but for this year I would rather invest in pitchers with higher expectations in the counting categories, such as Corey Kluber or Matt Harvey.
David Price
Less than a dozen starting pitchers receive an "A" for their mechanics, but Price is the third one on this list with top-level efficiency in his delivery. He has been pushed down the ranks in some arenas, bouncing outside the top-10 starting pitchers on multiple lists, and one has to wonder if the recent memory of Price's playoff struggles is dragging down his value. Of course, those stats didn't impact fantasy managers, and he now has an off-season to get back on track.
| 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | |
| ERA | 2.45 (4) | 3.26 (29) | 3.33 (30) |
| WHIP | 1.076 (12) | 1.079 (10) | 1.098 (14) |
| Strikeouts | 225 (8) | 271 (1) | 151 (50t) |
| Wins | 18 (6t) | 15 (15t) | 10 (65t) |
The WHIP is as reliable as it comes, falling within 0.025 points in each of the last five seasons and ranking between 10th and 14th in the league each year. His K-rate was off along with his playing time in 2013, but Price is one season removed from an MLB-leading strikeout total and his 2.45 ERA of last year led the American League. The Red Sox should have a potent offense, buffering his wins, though his move to playing half his games at Fenway Park is a potential knock to the ERA. Price seems prone to a blowup or three each year, but he has been rock solid for the past six seasons.
Here is how I rank these six players for the 2016 fantasy season:
1. Max Scherzer
2. Madison Bumgarner
3. Jake Arrieta
4. Chris Sale
5. David Price
6. Jose Fernandez
I see two value gaps within this list: one between Scherzer and the rest of the herd, and then another gap after Sale. Scherzer takes the top spot with a strikeout floor that is unmatched in baseball, and he showed last season that he can be the best pitcher in the game for months at a time. The ranking of Bumgarner, Arrieta and Sale is largely up to personal preference when it comes to the stat categories; I tend to place a premium on statistical stability, hence the ranking of Bumgarner, but those who favor upside might go with Sale while Arrieta offers the best of both worlds.
I believe that Price deserves to be firmly in the top 10 among starting pitchers, but I would also consider pitchers such as the aforementioned Harvey and Kluber to be in the same realm. I would probably bounce Fernandez just outside the top 10 due to the expected cap on his innings as well as the possibility for bumps in the road of his recovery from Tommy John surgery, especially given the speed bumps that interfered with last season.
