Minor League Barometer: A-Matz-ing Numbers

Let's talk about the next big-name prospect likely to receive a promotion to the big leagues: Steven Matz of the New York Mets. Matz has been dominating the hitter-friendly confines of the Pacific Coast League, and rumors are swirling that he could be promoted on July 1. The 23-year-old southpaw has a 2.11 ERA and 86:31 K:BB ratio in 85.1 innings for Triple-A Las Vegas. While he obviously has swing-and-miss stuff, what really makes him effective is the ability to keep the ball down in the zone. Matz has a 1.75 GO:AO ratio, meaning he surrenders almost two ground balls for every one fly ball. While he has allowed five home runs in 14 games this season, that likely has more to do with where he is pitching than how he is pitching. In 63 starts prior to this season, he yielded just eight home runs. That's a span of over 275 innings! Combine the strikeouts and lack of home runs with the fact that his future home is pitcher-friendly Citi Field, and you have one enticing fantasy prospect. He should fit in nicely behind Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard in the rotation. One final note: since entering the minors in 2012, Matz has not had an ERA above 2.62 at any level.

There are still plenty of other prospects biding their time in the minors. As the summer begins, let's take a peek at the rest of the prospect scene.

UPGRADE

Max Kepler, OF, MIN – The Twins had high expectations for Kepler, but he struggled at first, and then got lost in the shuffle among the likes of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. Though Kepler's been in the Minnesota organization since 2010, he hasn't played above High-A until this season. In addition, he had not hit above .300 at any level, he had not hit more then 10 home runs in any single season, and had not swiped more than seven bags in any one year. He's turned things around this season though, and been absolutely on fire over his last 10 games, hitting .576 with one home run, six RBI and four stolen bases. Overall, Kepler is slashing .342/.413/.560 with three home runs, 27 RBI and 11 steals through 53 games at Double-A. The 22-year-old center fielder may not ever be a huge power prospect, and it remains to be seen where he'll play if Buxton lives up to the hype. However, this finally looks like Kepler's breakout season.

Tony Kemp, 2B, HOU - The Astros have experience with diminutive second base prospects, and while Kemp may not be Jose Altuve, the 23-year-old is certainly making a case for a future role with the big club. At 5-foot-6, 165 lbs, Kemp is undersized, but he has been making the most of his talents. He scorched his way through Double-A earlier this season, hitting .358 with a .457 OBP in 50 games at that level. He also swiped 15 bags during that time period. Kemp has not missed a beat since being promoted to Triple-A, hitting .375 with six steals over his first 12 games. Overall in 2015, he's tallied more walks (40) than strikeouts (30) and ability to get on base is virtually unmatched currently in the minors. Combine that with his above-average speed, and Kemp could be a valuable player in any format.

Gleyber Torres, SS, CHC - As if the Cubs needed another infield prospect. Torres is an 18-year-old wunderkind who has had no trouble adjusting to full-season ball and through 61 games for Low-A South Bend, Torres is slashing .312/.381/.390. He has only one home run, but he is expected to develop at least decent pop as he matures. Torres has also swiped 10 bases thus far. A teenager hitting .312 through half of the season in full-season ball is certainly nothing to scoff at, but despite having 59 strikeouts in 61 games he's also drawn 26 walks over that span, showing plate discipline well beyond his years. Torres is far from making a big-league impact, and due to the plethora of talented middle infielders ahead of him in the organization his future with the Cubbies could be in question. He's a spectacular young talent though, and the Cubs don't have to make any rash decisions at this juncture.

Jose Peraza, 2B, ATL - Despite getting rid of Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Craig Kimbrel in the offseason, the Braves find themselves within striking distance of both the NL East crown and a wild card spot. As a result, despite the presence of Jace Peterson at second base and in the leadoff spot, Atlanta may start to feel pressure to promote Peraza to the big leagues. While he may not see everyday at-bats, it would be tough to argue that the Braves wouldn't be better off with him on the roster. The 21-year-old is hitting a crisp .405 over his last 10 games and while Peraza has not been stealing bases at quite the same clip this season as in years' past, he still has 17 steals in 61 games. Overall, he's once again hitting .300, and he has not hit below .281 at any level since 2011. The Braves may not have a glaring need at second base right now, but Peraza may force their hand.

CHECK STATUS

Lewis Brinson, OF, TEX - Brinson is yet another toolsy outfielder in the Rangers organization, and he finally appears to be hitting his stride. The 21-year-old missed the first six weeks of the season due to a hamstring injury. However, in 34 games since his return to the field at High-A, he is slashing .298/.379/.518 and has been particularly hot of late, batting .341 over his last 10 contests. Brinson has an intriguing power/speed combination, supplying double figures in home runs and steals in each of the last two seasons, and thus far in 2015 he already has six home runs and eight stolen bases. While he has cut down on his strikeouts over the years, they remain a concern. Likewise, Brinson has battled a couple of leg injuries during his brief professional career, leading some to question his durability. However, the 2012 first rounder may finally be showing his full potential.

Raul Mondesi, SS, KC - The Royals have not been shy about promoting the 19-year-old Mondesi, who is already in Double-A despite only average offensive production during his brief minor-league career. While it is clear he's a gifted player, particularly defensively, the rush by the Royals to get him to the big leagues seems a bit curious. He missed the first five weeks of the season due to injury, but the team still let him go right to Double-A despite the fact he hit just .211 in 110 games at High-A last season. As with most young players Mondesi has struggled with plate discipline, and 2015 has been no different. Through 32 games, the teenager has fanned 31 times while drawing just four walks. He's somehow still managed to hit .270 over that span, but his .289 OBP leaves much to be desired. Mondesi does have above-average speed along with enough pop to hit 5-10 home runs per season. However, his main value to the Royals lies in his defense and athleticism, something that may not help fantasy owners much. In addition, the Royals have Alcides Escobar currently at shortstop and signed long-term. Therefore, it is not clear why the Royals are in such a hurry to see Mondesi in the majors, and, in any event, his impact from a fantasy perspective could be questioned.

Chase De Jong, P, TOR - A second-round pick in 2012, De Jong has notched back-to-back 10 strikeout games for Low-A Lansing. These types of performances will certainly turn some heads, but he's already 21 years of age and is repeating the level. He struggled to miss bats last season, posting a 4.82 ERA and striking out 77 batters in 97 innings, not exactly overwhelming statistics. Opposing batters hit .290 against him, and he surrendered 12 home runs in 23 games. He has adjusted this season though, compiling a 3.13 ERA, and opposing batters are now hitting just .231 against the 6-foot-4 righty. Still, even with the two recent monstrous starts, De Jong has only 77 strikeouts in 86.1 innings. The overall progression is certainly positive, but strikeout rates usually don't improve at the higher levels. In sum, De Jong will have to prove himself at those higher levels to become a legitimately relevant prospect for the Blue Jays.

Trayce Thompson, OF, CHW - You might have heard of Trayce's older brother. You know, the All-Star shooting guard from the Golden State Warriors who just recently won his first NBA title. While it seems like 25-year-old Klay has had a sudden, meteoric rise to superstardom, the 24-year-old Trayce has had to patiently bide his time in the Chicago White Sox system. While he's not quite as big as his brother his bat can still pack some punch, and the younger Thompson has hit at least 15 home runs in each of the last four seasons in the minors. A second round draft pick in 2009, he was drafted straight out of high school but more than six years later he continues to struggle with plate discipline. Though his strikeouts are actually down this season, Thompson has still fanned 56 times in 59 games while drawing just 15 walks. Despite his 6-foot-3, 210-pound frame, he can motor on the base paths and has swiped at least 20 bags in each of the last three seasons. Currently Thompson's slashing .275/.318/.473 with nine home runs, 33 RBI and seven steals at Triple-A. He obviously has an athletic pedigree, and his power/speed combo remains intriguing. However, whether he can hit for average at the big-league level is a big question mark, and could ultimately determine if he can cut it in the majors. It is worth noting that prior to 2015, his highest batting average for any one season in the minors was .253.

DOWNGRADE

Reese McGuire, C, PIT - McGuire hasn't had a terrible 2015 campaign, but it just doesn't seem like he'll be much of a contributor at the higher levels, at least from a fantasy perspective. Batting .249/.297/.284 through 50 games for High-A Bradenton, McGuire has not hit a home run, and he has driven in just 19 runs. He does have 11 stolen bases, but catchers are not selected for their speed, and his stolen base figures don't figure to get better as he ages. He smacked just three home runs last season, so it remains to be seen if he'll develop power later on. He does show decent plate discipline at least, and does not strike out much. However, he has failed to hit above .260 over his last 150 games in the minors. McGuire is just 20 years of age and is advanced from a defensive perspective. However, his offensive game is lagging behind, and perhaps may never catch up.

Ben Lively, P, PHI - Lively burst onto the prospect scene last season with one of the better first halves you will ever see. In 13 starts at High-A Bakersfield, a Cincinnati Reds affiliate, he went 10-1 with a 2.28 ERA, striking out 95 batters while walking just 16 batters over a span of 79 innings. Subsequently he received a bump to Double-A, and while he wasn't nearly as dominant he still notched a 3.88 ERA and struck out more than one batter per inning, though his control failed him a bit. In the offseason Lively was shipped to the Phillies in exchange for Marlon Byrd. Whether it has been the change of scenery or simply a regression to the mean, he hasn't shown the same dominance in 2015. While his ERA still sits at a respectable 3.82 at Double-A, he has struck out just 56 batters in 77.2 innings. Such a stark drop in strikeouts, when he pitched at this level for half of last season, is disconcerting, and the decline in K's changes his future path from frontline starter to back-end innings eater. Perhaps the end result will be somewhere in between, but it's safe to say that Lively has lost a bit of his luster.

Justin O'Conner, C, TB - Considered one of the best prospects in the Tampa Bay system prior to the 2015 season, O'Conner has really struggled this year. The 23-year-old backstop is slashing just .204/.228/.341 while fanning 69 times in 52 games and drawing just six walks. That type of poor plate discipline makes it difficult to see O'Conner ever being able to hit for average at the higher levels. His one saving grace is that he is once again on pace for double-digit home runs, but even then, if he can barely hit above the Mendoza line, his fantasy impact will be minimal. After posting a combined OPS of .782 last season between High-A and Double-A, O'Conner's OPS is now an abysmal .570. Catching prospects don't have to hit like other prospects, but his numbers are really testing the limits.

Hunter Dozier, 3B, KC - The Royals haven't done much wrong over the past year or two, but Dozier's selection in the 2013 draft was widely criticized. His selection was viewed as a reach, and a way for the Royals to save some money. While the monetary aspect may have aided the Royals in signing other picks, his actual production has left something to be desired. Dozier is batting .211/.283/.350 with six home runs, 24 RBI and three steals in 67 games at Double-A. Half of his home runs have come in the last 10 games, though he still hit just .211 over that span. He's also been punched out 76 times in 67 contests this season. Combined with last year, Dozier has now played over 130 games at Double-A with 146 strikeouts and 10 home runs, along with a .210 batting average. It looks like he has hit a wall, and it remains to be seen if he can get out of this current funk.