Yordan Alvarez

27-Year-Old OutfielderOF

Houston Astros

2024 Stats

AVG

.308

RBI

2025 Projections

AVG

RBI

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

Alvarez set career-high marks in games played (147) and plate appearances (635) while clearing 30 homers for the fourth consecutive year. He suffered a right knee sprain during the final week of the 2024 regular season, but Alvarez was able to return for the wild-card round. It's almost scary what Alvarez has been able to do with his strikeout rate, lowering it to just 15 percent last season while keeping his Statcast page crimson red with elite batted-ball numbers. He has a long history of knee problems, including double knee surgery in August of 2020, but Alvarez has few peers when on the field, ranking behind only Aaron Judge in wRC+ (165) over the past four seasons. Alvarez retains outfield eligibility after making 53 starts in left field, but he should continue to see most of his time at designated hitter. Taking advantage of the bigger bases and new rules limiting pickoff attempts, Alvarez added six steals last season, after coming into the campaign with two career steals. Fantasy managers would probably prefer he not run at all given his injury history. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

From Preseason

Overall Rank

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats L

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'5"

Weight 225

DOB 6/27/1997

Drafted 2016

Less action in left field for 2025?

OFHouston Astros

December 9, 2024

Manager Joe Espada said Monday that he would like to "cut back" on Alvarez's playing time in left field for the 2025 season, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.

ANALYSIS
Of the 147 regular-season games Alvarez played in 2024, 94 of them were as the designated hitter compared to 53 games in left field. Part of Espada's desire to restrict Alvarez's playing time in the outfield is partially due with the left-handed slugger's right knee sprain toward the end of the 2024 regular season. If Alvarez serves as the Astros' full-time DH for 2025, that would mean more playing time in the outfield for the likes of Chas McCormick, Mauricio Dubon and 24-year-old Zach Dezenzo, who Rome notes played in left field during winter baseball in Puerto Rico.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+2%

OPS vs RHP

2024

+11%

OPS vs LHP

2023

+17%

OPS vs RHP

2022

+3%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.978	575	70	26	101	1	.329	.403	.575
Since 2022vs Right	.993	1117	190	77	179	6	.290	.400	.593
2024vs Left	1.029	209	23	10	30	1	.362	.411	.617
2024vs Right	.924	426	65	25	56	5	.280	.383	.541
2023vs Left	.892	174	20	6	38	0	.295	.385	.507
2023vs Right	1.044	322	57	25	59	0	.292	.419	.625
2022vs Left	.998	192	27	10	33	0	.321	.411	.586
2022vs Right	1.030	369	68	27	64	1	.299	.404	.627
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+19%

OPS on Road

2024

+32%

OPS on Road

2023

+26%

OPS on Road

2022

+1%

OPS on Road

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.906	856	118	43	118	3	.286	.380	.526
Since 2022Away	1.074	836	142	60	162	4	.321	.423	.650
2024Home	.828	315	35	13	30	3	.283	.362	.466
2024Away	1.092	320	53	22	56	3	.333	.422	.670
2023Home	.877	249	36	10	41	0	.278	.390	.488
2023Away	1.103	247	41	21	56	0	.307	.425	.678
2022Home	1.014	292	47	20	47	0	.296	.390	.624
2022Away	1.024	269	48	17	50	1	.318	.424	.600
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Stat Review

How does Yordan Alvarez compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.73

BB Rate

10.9%

K Rate

15.0%

BABIP

.317

ISO

.259

AVG

.308

OBP

.392

SLG

.567

OPS

.959

wOBA

.407

Exit Velocity

93.1 mph

Hard Hit Rate

41.8%

Barrels/PA

10.6%

Expected BA

.303

Expected SLG

.595

Sprint Speed

18.8 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

33.3%

Line Drive %

19.1%

Fly Ball %

47.6%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Yordan Alvarez Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Astros Depth Chart

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

If Alvarez had a 100% health rating, you could make the case for him being the first hitter taken after Acuna Jr. When Alvarez is not playing through an injury or missing time with an injury, he is a run producing monster. Alvarez was limited to 114 games due to hand, arm, and an oblique injury yet still managed to finish in the top 25 for home runs and RBI despite the missed time. Alvarez is doing now what David Ortiz was doing at the end of his career numbers wise, but doing so in 80% of the plate appearances. If Alvarez could ever get a full season, 2005-2007 Ortiz numbers are at the edge of possibilities for him because he is that good of a hitter. He takes his walks and he does not strike out at the rate other hulks like him do while also handling lefties well. Simply put, this is a fantasy foundational player who is a perennial MVP candidate and worth the risk to reach because the numbers he could put up in a 600 plate appearance season will win leagues.

Alvarez has few peers in Major League Baseball; Juan Soto is perhaps the only player on his level in terms of zone management and overall hitting skills. Alvarez's Statcast page is comical, as he led MLB in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and barrel percentage. Alvarez drew 78 walks while striking out only 106 times in 561 plate appearances during the regular season. Despite playing in only 135 games and stealing only one base, Alvarez finished as a top-10 roto hitter in 2022. We still have to worry about his knees, although his absences last season weren't directly related. The 25-year-old is under contract with the Astros long term and maintains outfield eligibility in fantasy leagues entering 2023.

Alvarez bounced back in a big way in 2021, significantly raising his 2022 stock and painfully reminding Dodgers fans they once gave him up for Josh Fields. Alvarez and his old-man knees hit the fountain of youth as he destroyed baseballs to all fields and finished the season 38% better than the league average by wRC+. Only Mike Trout, Fernando Tatis and George Springer have a higher Isolated Power (SLG-AVG) over the past three seasons. The only statistical flaw to his game is a void of steals, but he excels in run production and has a career .290 average in nearly 1,000 plate appearances. The added bonus of qualifying as an outfielder for the first time in drafts will only push up his price in drafts, but Alvarez is worth every penny. Players often reach another level in their third full pro season; if Alvarez does that, he wins the 2022 AL MVP because his next level could look like Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s 2021 season.

Many players were hit hard by the pandemic in 2020, both in terms of how it affected their availability and in how it impacted their performance, and Alvarez was part of that group. His 2019 domination of baseballs set high expectations for the reigning Rookie of the Year, but COVID-19 led to him missing all of summer camp and the first three weeks of the season. He came back for all of nine plate appearances before being sent to the IL with a knee injury which eventually required season-ending surgery. Alvarez said he had dealt with the knee pain since the summer of 2019, but you would never know it statistically. There have been a few videos this offseason showing Alvarez on the treadmill during rehab, which is a good sign. Designated hitters still need their legs as the foundation of their swing, so Alvarez's recovery should be monitored closely. Adjust your risk/reward scale accordingly.

Alvarez was worth the wait for those who stashed him while he abused the Pacific Coast League to the tune of a .343/.443/.742 slash line over the first two months. Upon getting called up, the 22-year-old quickly became a foundational piece in Houston's lineup, claiming AL Rookie of the Year honors on the back of a 178 wRC+ that ranked fourth among all hitters following his June 9 promotion. Both the eye test and the Statcast metrics supported the notion that Alvarez is already one of the game's premier power bats, and his exceptional plate approach and ability to handle lefties (.307/.389/.649 in 131 plate appearances) should make him an annual batting title contender, too. Alvarez will only be eligible in a utility spot in most leagues to begin 2020, but like peak David Ortiz and Nelson Cruz before him, he's one of the few players whose lack of positional versatility shouldn't be viewed as a handicap.

There is an inevitable disconnect with where Alvarez ranks on real-life lists and fantasy-specific prospect rankings. He won’t provide much defensive value, likely getting starts in left field, at first base and at DH. What he will do, however, is hit for power and average. After putting on a clinic against Texas League pitchers (.290 ISO, 168 wRC+), he was promoted to Triple-A one week after his 21st birthday in late June. His BABIP fell from .377 to .315 after the promotion, accounting for the dip in average. However, he maintained an impressive all-fields approach (39.5 Pull%, 33.6 Oppo%) and actually upped his walk rate from 10% to 12.2%. The 6-foot-5, 225-pound Cuban slugger makes such hard contact that his true talent BABIP is probably much closer to his Double-A mark. He hit above .300 against same-handed pitching at both stops, so a future platoon seems unlikely. The Astros have no reason to rush him, but he will likely force the issue this summer.

While Alvarez is a first-base-only prospect who is unproven above Low-A, he should still be viewed as a high-end asset. He has monstrous raw power, yet primarily accesses it to the opposite field, much like Domingo Santana. This rare tendency is the result of an extremely advanced all-fields approach. He rocketed the ball all over the Midwest League (.449 BABIP, 207 wRC+) en route to a midseason promotion to High-A, where the lefty-hitting slugger hit 35.8 percent of his hits to right field, 27.9 percent to center field and 36.3 percent to left field. Alvarez’s walk rate was cut in half against more advanced pitching, but his strikeout rate also dropped from 25.9 percent to 16.3 percent. Despite measuring in at 6-foot-5, 225 pounds, he has average speed, but that figures to tick down as he matures. It will be tough to crack the Astros’ lineup in the coming years, but Alvarez has the offensive ceiling to do so, which should excite owners in even the shallowest of dynasty leagues.

More Fantasy News

In Game 1 lineup

OFHouston Astros

October 1, 2024

Alvarez (knee) will start at designated hitter and bat second Tuesday in Game 1 of the American League Wild Card Series versus the Tigers, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.

ANALYSIS
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Will hit, run Monday to test knee

OFHouston Astros

Knee

September 30, 2024

Alvarez (knee) will do some hitting and running Monday at Minute Maid Park to test out his potential availability for the wild-card series, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.

ANALYSIS
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Set for hitting work Monday

OFHouston Astros

Knee

September 29, 2024

Alvarez (knee) is expected to take part in some hitting work with the Astros on Monday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.

ANALYSIS
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May begin activity Sunday

OFHouston Astros

Knee

September 28, 2024

Manager Joe Espada said Saturday that Alvarez (knee) could resume baseball activities Sunday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.

ANALYSIS
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Ruled out through weekend

OFHouston Astros

Knee

September 25, 2024

Alvarez (knee) will remain in Houston to work with the training staff and will miss the Astros' final series of the regular season this weekend in Cleveland, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.

ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Being avoided

OFHouston Astros

May 5, 2023

Alvarez is receiving pitches in the strike zone just 42.5 percent of the time this season, the third lowest mark in MLB.

ANALYSIS
While that metric isn't conducive to fantasy success, it's likely a sign of pitchers' fear and caution towards Alvarez. His on-base percentage remains in line with his career average, and his numbers could climb once Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley return from injury and add more depth to Houston's lineup.

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