Riley Greene

Riley Greene

24-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Detroit Tigers
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Greene's quality of contact is borderline elite, but a 20th percentile strikeout rate keeps him from taking full advantage of 90th percentile barrel and 83rd percentile hard hit rates. Greene's contact on pitches out of the zone is his undoing, but there are harbingers for improved contact. His strikeout rate has dropped each of the past two seasons, albeit just slightly. More importantly, Greene doesn't chase, and he walks at an 11 percent clip. Together these bode well for better swing decisions. Greene's power metrics are also on the upswing with a career-high 34.6 percent fly ball rate, 10 points above his first two seasons. Greene doesn't run much, and he needs to establish durability after missing over three weeks with a hamstring issue. This could be the last year to draft Greene outside of the top 75; he has the makings of a four-category star. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
From Preseason
$Signed a one-year contract with the Tigers in March of 2024.
Paces offense in win
OFDetroit Tigers
September 22, 2024
Greene went 3-for-4 with a walk, an RBI and three runs scored in Saturday's 6-4, 10-inning win over the Orioles.
ANALYSIS
Greene has been playing well lately, posting an .893 OPS across his last 10 games with four home runs, eight RBI and eight runs scored. With Detroit battling for the final AL playoff spot, the young outfielder's contributions have been crucial. For the season, Greene has an .842 OPS across 130 games with 24 long balls, 72 RBI and 80 runs scored, which are all new career highs.
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Batting Stats
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2024
2023
2022
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2023 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
31
32
20
26
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
11
15
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+12%
OPS vs RHP
2024
 
 
+25%
OPS vs RHP
2023
 
 
+19%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
+14%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022vs Left .713 363 34 6 36 0 .259 .311 .402
Since 2022vs Right .796 1054 145 34 117 12 .270 .350 .446
2024vs Left .698 151 18 6 22 0 .213 .265 .433
2024vs Right .873 432 64 18 52 4 .280 .377 .496
2023vs Left .694 93 6 0 3 0 .279 .333 .360
2023vs Right .826 323 45 11 34 7 .291 .353 .473
2022vs Left .747 119 10 0 11 0 .303 .353 .394
2022vs Right .656 299 36 5 31 1 .232 .308 .348
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+4%
OPS at Home
2024
Even Split
2023
 
 
+5%
OPS at Home
2022
 
 
+11%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022Home .792 683 82 18 71 3 .275 .343 .450
Since 2022Away .758 734 97 22 82 9 .259 .338 .420
2024Home .826 274 35 10 39 0 .265 .336 .490
2024Away .827 309 47 14 35 4 .258 .359 .468
2023Home .813 213 28 5 16 3 .303 .357 .456
2023Away .777 203 23 6 21 4 .273 .340 .437
2022Home .722 196 19 3 16 0 .259 .337 .385
2022Away .648 222 27 2 26 1 .248 .306 .342
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Stat Review
How does Riley Greene compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.41
 
BB Rate
11.0%
 
K Rate
26.8%
 
BABIP
.329
 
ISO
.217
 
AVG
.262
 
OBP
.348
 
SLG
.479
 
OPS
.827
 
wOBA
.360
 
Exit Velocity
91.3 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
32.9%
 
Barrels/PA
8.2%
 
Expected BA
.253
 
Expected SLG
.477
 
Sprint Speed
23.7 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
43.6%
 
Line Drive %
21.8%
 
Fly Ball %
34.6%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
Greene was one of a handful of hitters who needed Tommy John surgery at the end of the 2023 season. Greene's surgery was on his non-throwing elbow, so it should not impact the timeline of his return to the field. The impact to his swing and production will be another story. Green had a successful rookie season hitting for a solid average, accepting walks while flashing his overall athleticism. The biggest flaw on Greene's young resume is the swing and miss which leads to a bottom quartile strikeout rate but good things happen more often than not when he does get bat to ball. He was not afford much time facing lefties as a rookie, but hit .279 in 93 plate appearances, but all 11 of his homers came against righties. Detroit saw enough from him to have him hitting second or third when he did start, and we should not expect that lineup position to change in 2024. He may get off to a slow start coming off surgery, but the volume should be there in the end.
Greene appeared likely to break camp on the Tigers' Opening Day roster, but a foul ball off the foot delayed his arrival to the big leagues until mid-June. He would go on to slash .253/.321/.362 across 93 games as a rookie, hitting five homers while successfully stealing only one bag in five attempts. In a vacuum, these numbers are rather uninspiring, but the fact that Greene was right around league average by wRC+ as a 21-year-old speaks volumes. The fifth overall pick in 2019, Greene was considered among the top prospects in the game at the time of his call-up. The Tigers are going to give Greene every chance to succeed. We've already seen that he can hold his own against big-league pitching, but it would be nice to see him cut down on the strikeouts (28.7%). How quickly he does that will determine his trajectory.
The top prep hitter in the 2019 draft class, Greene was a top-15 overall prospect heading into 2021 and his final season in the minors couldn't have gone much better. He jumped over High-A and logged a 145 wRC+ at Double-A as the youngest hitter at that level. Greene was then pushed to Triple-A, where he was once again the youngest hitter, and he improved his rate stats across the board en route to a 153 wRC+. His 32.8 Hard% was elite for a hitter his age in the upper levels, and he surprisingly stole 16 bases on 17 attempts, despite having never graded out as a plus runner. Base stealing is not all about pure speed, and if Robbie Grossman stole 20 bases for the Tigers in 2021, Greene could get to that mark over a full season. A trip to the Arizona Fall League was canceled due to a concussion suffered at the end of the Triple-A season, but he cleared protocols in October and had a normal offseason. However, he sustained a fractured right foot in early April that is expected to keep him out of game action for 6-8 weeks. While his fantasy value depends on when he's able to return to the field, Greene could win an everyday role once he's healthy, and he has five-category upside once he ultimately makes his major-league debut.
A pure hitter first and foremost, Greene has an excellent understanding of the strike zone and has no trouble getting to his plus raw power in games. He has a very fluid left-handed swing and while he is not a burner, all of his movements in the field are smooth, especially for a 6-foot-3, 200-pound bat-first player. It was obviously a small sample, but he hit .417 with two home runs and a 2:6 K:BB in 18 plate appearances as a 19-year-old in big-league spring training -- a very loud way to start an unconventional year of development for the No. 5 overall pick from 2019. He emerged as one of Detroit's team leaders at the alternate site and became fast friends with the other face of this rebuild, Spencer Torkelson. Greene is much more advanced than the typical 20-year-old, so he will spend most of 2021 at Double-A, setting up a 2022 MLB debut. This is a safe offensive profile to bet on in dynasty leagues.
Greene was seen as the consensus top prep hitter in the 2019 draft, which led to the Tigers selecting him fifth overall. He is now the offensive face of a pitching-heavy rebuild with no end in sight. Greene quickly earned a promotion from the Gulf Coast League to the New York-Penn League and while he didn't set the world on fire there, the patience (11.0 BB%) and all-fields laser show (30.6 LD%, 39.7 Pull%) he displayed led to a promotion to Low-A. His inexperience started to show against Midwest League pitching, but at that point it had been quite a long season for the 18-year-old. Greene will likely be a below-average runner in the majors, which should force a move to right field. He projects as a high-AVG/high-OBP left-handed hitter who could grow into 30-homer power. The key will be for him to let the power come naturally while maintaining his strong plate skills and approach in the meantime.
More Fantasy News
Goes deep in critical win
OFDetroit Tigers
September 18, 2024
Greene went 1-for-5 with a solo home run in Wednesday's 4-2 win over the Royals.
ANALYSIS
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Goes deep twice
OFDetroit Tigers
September 15, 2024
Greene went 2-for-4 Sunday with two home runs and three RBI against the Orioles.
ANALYSIS
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Goes deep in win
OFDetroit Tigers
September 11, 2024
Greene went 2-for-4 with a solo home run and two total RBI in Wednesday's 7-4 win over the Rockies.
ANALYSIS
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Drives in three Tuesday
OFDetroit Tigers
September 10, 2024
Greene went 2-for-3 with a walk, a triple, two runs scored and three RBI in Tuesday's 11-0 win over the Rockies.
ANALYSIS
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Four hits in 13-inning loss
OFDetroit Tigers
September 7, 2024
Greene went 4-for-6 with a double, two RBI and a run scored in Friday's 7-6 extra-innings loss to the Athletics.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Getting mowed down
OFDetroit Tigers
April 25, 2023
Greene has struck out 33 times through his first 92 plate appearances -- the third-most strikeouts in MLB.
ANALYSIS
Greene already struggled with making consistent contact in 2022, striking out in 28.7 percent of his plate appearances, but the new season has seen his issues reach a new level. The 22-year-old owns a 0.21 BB/K ratio alongside a .224/.283/.341 slash line with two home runs thus far.
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