Pedro Baez

Baez has been a staple in the Dodgers' bullpen since his debut in 2015, and nothing changed in 2019 as the right-hander paced the team with 71 appearances and 25 holds while posting a 3.10 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 69.2 innings. He didn't whiff more than a batter per inning (8.9 K/9) for the first time since his rookie season, though he posted the second-best swinging strike rate of his career (15.5%). Most of Baez's success can be attributed to his ability to limit hard contact, as his 2.8 Barrel% and 26.6 Hard Hit% led to a .213 BABIP and 0.8 HR/9. He also didn't hurt himself with free passes, evidenced by his unremarkable 3.0 BB/9. While Baez finally picked up his first career save in 2019, he was also charged with six blown opportunities while five other Dodgers recorded at least one save. As such, he seems unlikely to see more than the occasional save chance even if an opening in the ninth inning arises.

Even as Kenley Jansen battled health issues, Baez still didn't get the chance to record his first big-league save in 2018, though he did manage a 2.88 ERA in 56.1 innings, his lowest mark since his rookie season. After a poor second half in 2017, Baez finished strong this time around, allowing just a single run over his last 18 appearances and giving up just two in 11.1 postseason innings. He's been very consistent over the course of his career, posting an ERA between 2.88 and 3.35 in each of his four full seasons. That consistency is quite valuable for the Dodgers, though it makes his chances of suddenly improving his value quite low. His strikeout rate and ERA aren't at the elite level required to give non-closing relievers much fantasy value, and there's little reason to believe he's about to get an uptick in save chances, even if Jansen continues to miss time. Six other Dodgers recorded saves in 2018, offering little hope that Baez is next in line.

2017 was a tale of two halves for Baez, as he turned in a shiny 1.43 ERA across 37.2 innings in the first half of the season before getting knocked around to the tune of a 5.13 ERA in 26.1 second-half frames. While he still finished the season with a 2.95 ERA, all indicators suggest there was quite a bit of luck at play (4.44 FIP, 4.83 xFIP, 4.25 SIERA). Baez saw his strikeout rate drop from 28.4 percent over the prior two seasons to 22.1 percent last year, while his walk rate jumped from 6.6 percent to 10.4 percent over that same stretch. The right-hander did allow just two of his 20 inherited runners to cross home plate, while opponents slashed just .099/.220/.127 against him with runners in scoring position, but Baez will likely be confined to the seventh inning to open 2018.

Baez remained one of the most frustrating players in baseball with his 2016 campaign, especially for believers in his ability to hold down a late-inning role and Dodger fans hoping to get home before midnight. On the surface, a season of 74 innings, a 3.04 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 83 strikeouts is excellent. He had stretches where he was nearly unhittable, easily breezing high-90s fastballs past hitters. But then, the wheels would come off. His game slowed down to the point of registering the slowest pitching pace in baseball (min. 50 innings) and he seemed incapable of throwing quality strikes at times. Things eventually got bad enough that the Dodgers optioned him to Double-A Tulsa, but he turned it around there and posted a scoreless September after returning to the majors. Baez could be next in line to take over at closer if Kenley Jansen is hurt, but he is an extremely volatile asset.

Baez had an up and down 2015, but ultimately finished with a 3.35 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 51 innings. A fastball that often found its way into the upper-90s allowed Baez to post a 10.6 K/9 to go with excellent control (1.9 BB/9). A 5.79 ERA in September was followed by an outing in the NLDS in which Baez surrendered three runs to the Mets without recording an out. Prior to that, however, Baez had a 2.95 ERA on August 31, so there's something to build on here. He also allowed just one run in his final eight regular-season innings, so it wasn't a complete meltdown. Baez has swing-and-miss stuff as evidenced by a 15 percent swinging-strike rate (league average was 9.9%) and he could develop into a closer in time. Refining his slider and improving his command should top his to-do list this spring, but barring a poor March, he should have a place in the team's bullpen on Opening Day.

Baez started his 2014 season at Double-A, but finished in Los Angeles while serving as a surprising stabilizing presence for Dodgers manager Don Mattingly. The recipe in his debut was a heavy volume of fastballs, as Baez fired the pitch at an 81% clip last season. With plenty of velocity (95.3 mph average), it's understandable that he leans on the offering, but Baez needs to more effectively utilize his slider or changeup in order to generate more strikeouts. Fortunately, he kept his walk rate down -- both at Triple-A and in the big leagues -- but something will have to give in terms of skills growth if he's going to sustain a sub-3.00 ERA with those peripherals. Baez carried an 83.3% LOB% (his range was 70.5-77.1% in the minors) and a .197 BABIP, which suggest an ERA much closer to his 2014 xFIP (3.96) than the 2.63 he delivered in his debut.

Signed out of the Dominican Republic for $200,000 in 2007, Baez has quickly emerged as one of the organization's top prospects. He's only 19 and his .274/.341/.408 line in rookie ball is rather modest, but he's already demonstrated excellent defensive skills and power to all fields. Baez is several years from the majors, but if he can improve his plate discipline and grow into his body, he could be another nice find by the Dodgers.