Ken Giles

Toward the end of summer camp, the Blue Jays stated they were planning on using Giles a lot during the truncated campaign. That declaration didn't age well as Giles left his second outing early with right elbow soreness, later diagnosed as the dreaded forearm strain. Giles was able to return after rehab in early September but lasted only two outings before suffering a recurrence of a right flexor strain. Giles underwent Tommy John surgery in late September, then was non-tendered by Toronto. While there's a chance Giles is able to return in late 2021, the better timeline is 2022. He'll find a new home somewhere and is viable as a future consideration in keeper formats with deep reserves and/or a separate injured list.

Giles pitched surprisingly well considering he spent most of the summer battling recurring elbow soreness. After the issue sent him to the IL for a short stay in June, Giles dealt with a few other bouts of soreness but managed to avoid the IL. When on the mound, he rebounded nicely from the previous year's inconsistent campaign, posting a new personal best 39.9 K%. The command issues from the previous season subsided, though Giles did benefit from a fortunate 91.3% left-on-base mark, yielding an actual 1.87 ERA nearly a run better than his 2.73 xFIP. Even though Giles' elbow soreness forced only one IL stint, it's concerning it kept coming back. His average fastball velocity dropped slightly from 97.6 to 97.2 mph -- not enough to sweat, at least not yet. On another team, Giles could be a candidate for 35-plus saves. But with Toronto, and the health concern, he's best drafted as a second closer.

Giles' numbers, like his pitch command, were all over the place in 2018. He had the closer role in Houston, but eventually lost it with another early-season stumble. He was traded to Blue Jays and the results didn't improve all that much (4.12 ERA), but Giles still managed to save 26 games over the course of the season. His strikeout rate fell more than two strikeouts per nine, but he posted the best walk rate of his entire career (3.3%). The walk rate should not be confused with his pitch command because Giles did not have trouble throwing strikes, but rather throwing the ball within the strike zone where the catcher was calling for it. That is why he allowed more than a hit per inning and got in trouble with the long ball. His FIP was 1.5 runs lower than his actual ERA because he was abnormally terrible with runners in scoring position as batters had a .528 SLG against him in those situations. Giles should open the season in the ninth for the Blue Jays.

By every measure, the 2017 version of Giles was an excellent one. That is, the regular-season version of Giles. He had a disastrous postseason, putting him on thin ice in the closer role in Houston. You’ll recall he stumbled out of the gate in 2016 much like he did through the 2017 postseason. Perhaps it was just the slick World Series baseball Tom Verducci wrote about, or perhaps Giles has lost some of the edge like Cougar in Top Gun. Houston may not accept him turning in his closer wings because the skills are excellent overall, but the inconsistencies at inopportune times could lead to him having a reduced role in the bullpen in 2018. There is no great internal candidate to replace him unless the club wants to move Brad Peacock into that role, but the team could add a late-inning arm in free agency. There is risk involved here.

Giles increased his strikeout rate from 2015 by nearly two strikeouts per nine innings but ended up with the same number of saves (15), as it took him some time to wrestle the closer job away from Luke Gregerson. As a member of the Phillies in 2015, Giles allowed two homers all season, but that rate quadrupled with the Astros last year although half of his home runs allowed came during his first month in Houston. Giles began the season allowing 20 baserunners, four homers, and 10 earned runs in just 10 April innings. From May on, Giles struck out 88 batters, allowed four home runs, and was the same dominant reliever the club gave up so much to acquire during the offseason. The 4.11 ERA was bad, but the 2.86 FIP shows where things could be if the home run rate settles in between 2015 and 2016. Roster him with confidence.

Giles opened last season in a setup role, but was given closing duties after the Phillies shipped Jonathan Papelbon off to the Nationals at the trade deadline. Giles saved 15 games for a bad team and should be able to at least double that total this season (and maybe triple it), after a blockbuster trade to Houston in the offseason. He did see some decline in his fastball velocity last season, especially early on, but he still throws hard enough to be a dominant force at the end of games. While his walk rate ticked up a bit in 2015, it was not to the worrisome levels of his time in the lower minors. Given the price that the Astros paid, Giles figures to have a fairly long leash if he goes through a rough patch, but Luke Gregerson will be waiting in the wings if Giles does slip.

Giles went from a relative unknown Double-A reliever to a future closer last season. He has been on the radar as a relief prospect thanks to his upper-90s fastball, but his command had always been questionable. Giles showed some improvements in the minors last season as he learned to better command his slider. The Phillies gave him a look in their bullpen in June and Giles seized the opportunity. His 12.6 K/9 and 5.82 K/BB ratio in 45.2 innings with the Phillies were eye opening. The Phillies appear ready to turn over closing duties to Giles, but Jonathan Papelbon remains with the club. Unless the Phillies can trade Papelbon, Giles will be limited to a setup role this season. He will still have value in most formats thanks to his strikeout rate and the potential for saves if Papelbon gets dealt or suffers an injury during the season.