Gabriel Arias

Arias actually took a step back in 2022, posting a .240/.310/.406 slash line in 77 games at Triple-A Columbus. He also got his first taste of the big leagues, hitting a home run with five RBI and a stolen base while slashing .191/.321/.319 in 57 plate appearances for the Guardians. Still a decent prospect entering his age-23 season, Arias' biggest issue at this point may be a consistent spot in the lineup. Jose Ramirez is signed long-term at third base, while Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez proved to be one of last year's most surprisingly good middle-infield duos. Arias saw time at all four infield positions during his cup of coffee in the majors, so he should at least provide pressure on the starters to maintain their hitting if he breaks camp with the Guardians. That said, his numbers from last year suggest he could benefit from another stint in Triple-A to build up some confidence after a rough year.

The youngest qualified hitter at Triple-A by five months, Arias was still able to log a .284/.348/.454 slash line and 115 wRC+. Known for his plus defense at shortstop and above-average power, Arias has some similarities to Willy Adames. Unlike most shortstop prospects, Arias won't be a major factor on the bases (five steals on six attempts in 115 games last year), but given defense and current game power, he has a chance to be an everyday player. His 13 home runs and .170 ISO were strong marks, given his age, and there's room for improvement if he can cut his 50.2 GB%. Arias' 24.3 LD%, 39.6 Pull% and 36.3 Oppo% are strong indicators for the direction his hit tool is trending. He is already on the 40-man roster and doesn't have much left to prove at Triple-A. Amed Rosario seems to have a solid hold on the shortstop job in Cleveland, but second base is up for grabs, and third base could also be open if they trade Jose Ramirez.

Arias was the second-youngest player in the Cal League but was the 12th-best hitter (120 wRC+) on the circuit, despite having the second-worst walk rate (4.9 BB%) of 46 qualified hitters. He has above-average power and below-average pitch recognition. Arias punishes pitches in the zone, but is the type of hitter who could be retired via three straight offspeed pitches out of the zone. The Padres quieted his setup, leading to a .350/.378/.549 slash line and 20.6 K% in 238 PA from July 1 on, but he also logged a .411 BABIP over that stretch. If he were a corner outfielder or first baseman, Arias' lack of plate discipline would make him a fringe prospect, but he also happens to have a chance to be a special defender at shortstop, even though he is a below-average runner. He probably fits best in another organization, where his power and defense would earn him everyday work despite a middling BA and low OBP.

Selective endpoints can be a dangerous tool for player analysis, but consider the following: Arias, the youngest player in the Midwest League (by four months), hit .212/.272/.270 in his first 305 PA. He then hit .282/.347/.475 with five home runs in his final 199 PA. This might mean nothing -- he struck out roughly 29.5% of the time across both stretches and had a .393 BABIP over those final 48 games. However, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs reported in late August that Arias had adopted a "monster leg kick" later in the season that unlocked some power. Longenhagen added that Arias was essentially out of shape at the start of the year, but by the end he was back to resembling the player who hit .271/.310/.486 with five home runs in 107 at-bats as a 17-year-old in the Australian Baseball League last winter. The selling point on Arias is that he might be the best pure shortstop in the Padres' system and doesn't turn 19 until late February.