J.A. Happ

J.A. Happ

42-Year-Old PitcherP
 Free Agent  
2024 Fantasy Outlook
There was no outlook written for J.A. Happ in 2024. Check out the latest news below for more on his current fantasy value.
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Rest of Season
From Preseason
$Signed a one-year, $8 million contract with the Twins in January of 2021. Traded to the Cardinals in July of 2021.
Brings end to playing days
PFree Agent  
May 31, 2022
Happ announced last week in an appearance on "The Heart Strong Podcast" with Jessica Lindberg that he has elected to retire from professional baseball.
ANALYSIS
Happ is set to turn 40 in October and hadn't been linked to any teams upon becoming a free agent over the winter, so his decision to retire isn't an unexpected one. The crafty southpaw will bring an end to a 15-year career in the majors that included stops with the Phillies, Astros, Blue Jays, Pirates, Mariners, Yankees, Twins and Cardinals. He earned a World Series ring in 2008 with Philadelphia and made his lone All-Star appearance with the Yankees in 2018. He retires with a career 133-100 record and a lifetime 4.13 ERA over 1,893.2 innings.
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring J.A. Happ See More
MLB: Jeff Zimmerman on Pitcher Inflation in the NFBC Main Event
March 16, 2022
Jeff Zimmerman examines starting pitcher inflation in the NFBC Main Event in recent years. Expect to see it again in 2022, especially with the early injuries to Chris Sale, Zack Wheeler and others.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
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Happ quietly put together a solid showing last season, posting a 3.47 ERA and career-best 1.05 WHIP. In fact, remove his first two starts and those numbers improve to 2.34/0.87. Much of his success was centered on limiting hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground at a tolerable rate (1.25 GB/FB). While Happ still yielded a 1.5 HR/9, that was a considerable improvement over the 1.9 HR/9 he posted in 2019. The veteran has never thrown very hard, and it's no surprise that his low-90s fastball has consistently led to a below-average strikeout rate. Still, there is some comfort in knowing that neither the velocity nor the strikeouts have cratered as Happ has entered his late 30s. He should have a steady role in the Minnesota rotation after signing a one-year $8 million contract, but a lack of strikeouts and low ceiling make him no more than a late-round option in fantasy drafts.
A flyball pitcher in Yankee Stadium with a ball traveling 5-to-10 feet further than expected is a recipe for disaster. Sure enough, Happ's 1.9 HR/9 was third worst among pitchers tossing at least 150 frames. Happ's K% was just 20.7%, down from 26.3% in 2018, despite nearly identical supporting metrics, particularly SwStr%. While he may have been a little unlucky in that regard last season, he was very fortunate the previous year. Happ averaged just 92 mph on his fastball, throwing it about half the time. He split sinker, changeup and slider usage fairly equally, with his sinker being his best pitch. Even if the ball reverts to 2018's traits, Happ is a fantasy risk, especially to ratios. He may be best used as a primary pitcher, following a dominant right-handed opener as he barely averages five innings a start. It's not ideal when wins line up to be your best asset.
Happ is a 35-year-old lefty coming off another solid season by both real baseball measures as well as fantasy ones. He has pitched in the AL East since the second half of the 2012 season, yet has not had an ERA over 3.70 since 2014. It is true that the league-wide strikeout rate continues to rise annually, but Happ's improvements over the last three outpace the league's overall rate. He has cut back on his breaking ball usage for more changeups and that led to career-best contact (78.3%) and swinging-strike rates (10.4%) this past season. Happ has made 30 or more starts in four of the past five seasons, but has eclipsed the 180-inning mark just once. He returned to the Yankees on a two-year deal in free agency and projects to open the season as the team's No. 4 starter.
Elbow inflammation sidelined Happ early in the season, but he hit his stride shortly after his return in late May, allowing three runs or fewer in 11 of 12 starts spanning the course of two months. He endured a couple hiccups in August, but Happ finished strong with a 1.99 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 32:8 K:BB in five September starts (31.2 innings). The peripherals were even better than they were in 2016, as Happ added more than a full strikeout to his K/9 and only gave a little back with the walks (2.9 BB/9) and homers (1.1 HR/9). He nearly doubled his changeup usage, upping it from 6.5 percent to 12.1 percent, and that helped keep opposing hitters off the low-90s fastball. He was still a little too hittable against right-handers and the offense may not be any good next year, but Happ has made 25-plus starts in each of the last four seasons and his performance has been steady since Ray Searage worked his magic a few years ago.
Happ won a career-high 20 games in 2016, tying him for second in MLB, while posting a career-best 3.18 ERA that was good for sixth-best in the AL. He also set personal records in games started (32) and innings pitched (195), while his 1.17 WHIP was good for 10th in the AL. It should be noted that he also benefitted from 6.9 runs of support per start, second-most in MLB, en route to his 20-win campaign. The wins masked some of the 33-year-old's fairly pedestrian numbers, such as a 7.5 K/9 and 2.8 K/BB. Happ also posted a weak 4.01 FIP and was somewhat lucky with a low .268 BABIP, which was fifth-best among AL starters. Most indicators would suggest that the 11-year veteran had a very fortunate season, and Happ's performance moving forward will likely regress back near his career averages. He is a valuable pitcher, but the draft day price tag may be a little unreasonable.
Happ gave Pittsburgh an unexpected boost after coming over from Seattle at the trade deadline last year. The lefty limited batters to a .577 OPS while registering a 69:13 K:BB ratio (9.8 K/9) as a Pirate. At 33 years of age, it will be interesting to find out whether Happ simply got hot in an new environment or whether he’s finally figured things out with the help of Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage. It’s easy to forget that Happ posted a 4.64 ERA and 1.40 WHIP (in 108.2 IP) with Seattle before the move to the Bucs, which makes projecting 2016 that much harder. After signing a three-year, $36 million deal with the Blue Jays in November, Happ returns to the place that he called home for nearly two-and-a-half seasons, where he will add depth in the Blue Jays' pitching staff.
Happ has a modicum of skill that affords runs of usefulness in the fantasy game, but determining when those runs will come isn’t always easy. For example, he was actually great at home last year despite pitching in a hitter-friendly park like Rogers Centre. The lefty managed a 3.15 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 3.7 K/BB ratio in 91 home innings. Of course, he canceled it all out with a 5.67 ERA in 67 road innings. The biggest surprise about his home success was the fact that it came with a 1.4 HR/9. Traded to Seattle in November, spacious Safeco Field should protect him from home runs this season. He has lowered his ERA in each of the last three seasons, but when you start at 5.35, that isn’t necessarily an impressive feat. Happ is the kind of the fifth starter who gets drafted late when people are just looking for a name who has a starting role, but you would be much better off speculating on a highly skilled middle reliever who will actually help you, even with a small amount of innings.
Happ lost a good portion of this 2013 season to injury, after taking a vicious comebacker off the head. He finished the year with a 4.53 ERA over 92.2 innings, while posting BB/9 (4.4) and K/9 (7.5) marks that were right in line with his past numbers. The soft-tossing lefty has always piled up a surprising number of strikeouts for his style, but he doesn't have much upside and is still likely to open 2014 as the Blue Jays' fifth starter or as a long man out of the bullpen.
Happ started six games for Toronto before a broken foot ended his season. While his 4.79 ERA is discouraging, his FIP (4.01) looks more promising thanks to an increase in K/9 (8.96), and drop in his BB/9 (3.48) along with his increased ability to induce groundballs. Happ should be ready for spring training, but Toronto's acquisition of R.A. Dickey should result in Happ being moved back to the bullpen in a swingman role.
Happ had a disappointing season, but not because something drastically changed with his skill set. He's still got league average strikeout stuff and still walks far too many batters. The big difference came in his hitability: Happ's HR/9IP rate spiked from 0.82 in 2010 to 1.21 in 2011, while he gave up over a hit and a half more per nine innings than he did just one year prior. He'll be a huge wild card heading into 2012 drafts due to his inconsistency the past few years. Still, don't expect him to put up the strong numbers like he did in 2009.
Acquired from Philadelphia in the Roy Oswalt trade, Happ was a solid addition to the Astros' rotation. In 13 starts, Happ went 5-4 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.319 WHIP. While the walk rate is a little scary (4.8 BB/9IP), Happ is a steady, innings-eater type. His stuff doesn't dominate, but it should keep the team in the game long enough to earn his share of wins. He figures to hold down the No. 3 spot in the rotation for the Astros again in 2011. His strikeout rate increased to 7.6 K/9IP following the trade - if that sticks he could beat his projected ERA here.
Happ began last season in the Phillies' bullpen before moving into the rotation in late May. He quickly established himself as one of the team's more consistent starters and finished the season as a Rookie of the Year candidate. Happ features a high-80s fastball and keeps hitters off balance with good deception and use of his offspeed pitches. If Happ can make some strides with his control while also pushing his strikeout rate up towards the ratios he posted in the minors he could be in for another good season. However, if his walk rate slips and his BABIP normalizes (the .270 BABIP from last season is not likely to be repeated), Happ could find himself with an ERA well above the 2.93 ERA he posted in 2009.
Happ, who from late July until the end of the season was shifted between Triple-A Lehigh Valley and the Phillies roster, went 1-0 with a 3.69 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 26 strikeouts in 31.2 innings in his time with Philadelphia. Four of his eight appearances came as starts. His effectiveness was a bit of a surprise for Philadelphia, and the Phillies' staff even trusted him enough to give him three innings of relief duty in the NLCS against the Dodgers. Happ should compete with Kyle Kendrick, Carlos Carrasco and Andrew Carpenter in spring training for the No. 5 spot in the Phillies rotation and is worth taking a chance on late in drafts if he wins the job.
Happ was scratched from pitching in the Arizona Fall League because of what the Phillies are calling a "mild left elbow sprain." He's a decent prospect, but the Phillies shutting him down for the fall casts an ominous shadow over his near future.
A young lefthander in the Glendon Rusch mode, Happ has had his way with minor league hitters so far in his two-plus years as a pro. He will likely hit Philadelphia in 2007 after some time in Triple-A. Caution is advised: it often takes lefthanders who throw in the high 80s several years to become consistently effective.
More Fantasy News
Fans seven in win
PSt. Louis Cardinals  
September 30, 2021
Happ (10-8) earned the win Thursday against the Brewers. He allowed three runs on nine hits and no walks while striking out seven across 6.1 innings.
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Throws four shutout innings
PSt. Louis Cardinals  
September 24, 2021
Happ allowed two hits and four walks while striking out six in four scoreless innings during a no-decision in the first game of Friday's doubleheader versus the Cubs.
ANALYSIS
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Logs four-inning start Sunday
PSt. Louis Cardinals  
September 20, 2021
Happ did not factor into the decision in Sunday's win over the Padres, allowing three earned runs on four hits and a walk over four innings. He struck out two.
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Revenge outing against Reds
PSt. Louis Cardinals  
September 13, 2021
Happ (9-8) earned the win Sunday over the Reds after tossing 5.1 scoreless innings, allowing two hits and a walk while striking out four.
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Allows four runs in loss
PSt. Louis Cardinals  
September 7, 2021
Happ (8-8) allowed four runs on seven hits over five innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Tuesday. He struck out three and did not issue a walk.
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Red Sox in pursuit
PFree Agent  
November 23, 2020
Happ has drawn interest from the Red Sox in free agency this offseason, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports.
ANALYSIS
The 38-year-old Happ is probably best suited as a mid- or back end-rotation arm at this stage of his career, but he would likely slot in as a No. 1 or 2 pitcher for a Red Sox squad whose starters posted a 5.34 ERA in 2020. As Morosi notes, the southpaw's career-long success at Fenway Park probably factors prominently into Boston's interest in him. Over 66.2 innings in Boston, Happ has submitted a 2.57 ERA.
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