Sammy Sosa

Say it ain't So-sa! Slammin' Sammy had one of his worst years in 2005 and is clearly in the decline of his career, though various injuries including a dangerous staph infection didn't help his cause last season. While he could see a boost in last year's low numbers in a better situation in 2006, temper your expectations and don't even anticipate 20 homers -- or 120 games -- out of the aging superstar.

Sosa's batting average, OPS and plate discipline have been in free fall for a few years now, and he was dealt to Baltimore this past offseason for Jerry Hairston and two minor leaguers. The formerly skinny Sosa will also face increased scrutiny this season in the wake of the BALCO scandal. As much as he’s vilified, however, Sosa could end up being a major bargain for the Orioles at under $10 million, and provides another powerful right-handed bat for a team that finished next to last in the AL in batting average and OPS against lefties in 2004. He might not see a significant increase in average, but moving to the American League, hitting cleanup in a potent lineup, and batting in a hitter-friendly park should enable Sosa to eclipse 35 home runs and 100 RBI as long as he remains healthy. To that end, the Orioles may want to recommend a regular dose of Robitussin to go with Sosa’s pregame meals – he missed 27 games last season after throwing his back out due to a particularly violent sneeze.

Once the most reliable power source in the game, Sosa has declined a good deal the last two seasons, but that's not to say that he's washed up by any means. Sosa went .279/.358/.553 last year with 40 home runs, despite the embarrassing bat-corking suspension that cost him 10 games. Of some concern is the fact that his batting eye fell off a lot last year, as Sosa drew just 62 walks while striking out 143 times in 517 at-bats. (Sosa averaged 103 walks per season from 2000-2002). At age 35, Sosa should still be good for another 40-50 homers for another season or two at least, but his declining batting eye bodes badly for his batting average and his ability to score runs.

After posting ridiculous .328/.437./727 numbers in 2001, Sosa came back to earth a bit in 2002, thanks in part to a late season slump. He finished with 49 home runs and .288/.399/.594, still very good numbers, but closer to Alex Rodriguez than Barry Bonds. At 34, Sosa may be starting to decline at bit, but his batting eye is as good as it was in 2001, and we think 45 home runs and a .290 batting average are easy bets for him in 2003 with the potential for more.