Randal Grichuk

Grichuk was one of the few Blue Jays to register a disappointing season as his 85 wRC+ and .300 wOBA were both career lows. Grichuk also set new personal worsts with a 5.0 BB% and 12.6% HR/FB. On the other hand, Grichuk's career-best 20.9 K% marked the fourth straight season his K% improved. Grichuk struggled in the second half, recording a 208/.267/.355 line which dropped him into the lesser side of a platoon in September. He walked more and fanned less after the break, although he didn't hit the ball with as much authority, accounting for the drop in production. For the season, Grichuk's defense improved, which could help him regain a full-time job in 2022. While there is a chance Grichuk is in a decline phase, there is a better chance his power rebounds a bit. The more relevant concern is playing time as Toronto may look for a lefty swinger to replace Corey Dickerson.

For a player with a reputation for having great raw power, Grichuk sure didn't light up Statcast in 2020 with middle-of-the-pack rankings in exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He did, however, cut his K% down five percentage points to a career-low 21.2% while hitting better against same-handed pitching. Grichuk hit .252 with a 22.8 K% against righties in 2020, improvements on his .224 BA and 27.6 K% marks from a season prior. He took well to the Blue Jays' temporary home in Buffalo, Sahlen Field, slashing .306/.356/.528 there compared to just .241/.265/.435 on the road. Those splits, along with some shaky defense in the outfield, would seem to create some playing-time questions for 2021 and beyond, but remember the Blue Jays invested $52 million in Grichuk over five years, with the contract signed in April of 2019. This is a chance to get in on an exciting Toronto offense without breaking the bank.

The good news is Grichuk was an everyday player for the first time in his career. The bad news is his rate stats dropped across the board. He didn't tank; he just performed a tick below normal, especially against right-handed pitching. By the numbers, Grichuk's walk and strikeout rates were normal for him, but his average exit velocity dropped while his barrels fell precipitously. The result was Grichuk's lowest BABIP of his career, dragging down his slash line across the board. Grichuk is only one season into a five-year extension signed last spring, so the Blue Jays are committed to him. Look for the 28-year-old outfielder to play regularly and rebound from last season's downturn. That said, his average is limited by a poor contact rate and he has no speed. He's got pop, but so, it seems, does everyone. If you can absorb the average hit, Grichuk can be an asset, albeit with marginal upside.

Grichuk has had three full seasons at the big-league level, and they have all been remarkably similar across the board. The change in his home park did little to impact his home-run total or his run production, but he did reduce his strikeout rate (to 26.4%) and got a small bump in OBP for those who play in that format. Grichuk does not have the normal type of splits you would expect from a hitter with a lower average. He hits with more power against righties, but it comes at the cost of contact. When he faces lefties, Grichuk makes more contact and hits for a higher average, but not for as much power. Last season saw him get off to a horrendous start at the plate, which was followed by a sprained knee that wiped him out for all of May. He hit .271/.319/.553 once he came off the disabled list with 54 extra-base hits in 385 plate appearances. A sleeper source for 30 homers in 2019.

The tools remain exciting, but the clock is ticking on Grichuk. He needs to learn to be more patient and selective at the plate. His strikeout rate has hovered around 30 percent in each of the past three seasons, with his O-Swing percentage sitting up in the high-30s. His walk rate has ranged from 5.9 percent to 6.3 percent since the start of 2015, leading to sub-.290 OBPs the last two seasons. Grichuk sure hits the ball hard when he does connect, as evidenced by his 10.0 Brls/PA rate last season, which ranked sixth in the majors (min. 190 batted-ball events). The Cardinals traded him to Toronto this winter, where he should compete for an everyday role in right field in spring training. However, if he can't learn to make more consistent contact and get on base more, he could be passed over for Teoscar Hernandez or Anthony Alford.

Grichuk's strong 2015 campaign had him in a very favorable position heading into 2016, with an everyday job, plus power and what many believed to be an average hit tool. However, things went south in a hurry for the 25-year-old, as he came out of the gate with just a .206 batting average and strikeouts in a quarter of his plate appearances through mid-June. This led the Cardinals to shock everyone and send him back to the minors on two occasions during the summer. His performance vastly improved after the second demotion, as he slashed .275/.303/.579 with 12 home runs and 33 RBI, although it came with an unsustainably-high 34.1 percent strikeout rate. He will open the season as the everyday left fielder, although he showed in 2016 that he can be incredibly streaky, so he should be treated as a volatile asset. Grichuk will need to make more consistent contact in order to stay in manager Mike Matheny's good graces.

Grichuk came up to the big leagues for good on May 16th and clubbed nine extra-base hits in 13 starts over the rest of the month, enough to earn him a starting job for the rest of the season. He finished with a ridiculous 57 extra-base hits in just 103 games and 350 plate appearances, including 17 home runs. That's a huge power output for just over half a season's worth of at-bats, and it should be enough to earn Grichuk an Opening Day starting job despite a crowded outfield in St. Louis. Grichuk still has the same contact issues that kept him in the minor leagues to begin 2015, however, as he managed to strike out 110 times despite his limited action. He seems to have the power to succeed even with a high K-rate, but the .276 average Grichuk mustered will be his ceiling unless he can find a way to make more contact.

Grichuk bounced back and forth between Triple-A Memphis and the major leagues for the Cardinals in 2014 after being acquired in the David Freese trade with Anaheim, totaling 110 at-bats in 47 games. He served as a defensive replacement and pinch-hitter in most cases. Grichuk does have some power as indicated by his 25 home runs in 436 at-bats for Memphis, but he appears to be headed for a similar role in 2014 after the Cardinals acquired Jason Heyward from Atlanta. Barring major injury to one of the regulars ahead of him, or a trade, Grichuk might be a full year away from getting an opportunity to handle a starting job.

Grichuk was promoted to Double-A Arkansas after a reasonably strong year at High-A Inland Empire in 2012, and represented himself well, posting a slash line of .256/.306/.474 in 500 at-bats in 2013. While it's easy to get excited about his prodigious power potential (.218 ISO in 2013), Grichuk still needs to work on his plate discipline, as his 5.2% walk rate in 2013, though an improvement from his 2012 number, is still well below commonly accepted margins. Going into his age-22 season, Grichuk's plate discipline seems to be the final piece of the puzzle. The Cardinals acquired Grichuk as part of the David Freese-Peter Bourjos deal in November, which likely makes his path to big league at-bats even longer than it was in the crowded Anaheim outfield. Most likely, he'll start the season at Double-A Springfield, with the hope of earning a promotion to Triple-A Memphis at some point in 2014.

Grichuk was drafted 24th overall in the 2009 draft and finally made it through a full season without any injuries in 2012. He spent all of last season with High-A Inland Empire and slashed .298/.335/.488 with 18 homers and 16 steals over 575 plate appearances. His talent is obvious, but 23 walks over that many trips to the plate probably won't cut it, and as is the case for a number of the Angels' top prospects, Grichuk needs to work on his plate discipline. That's easier said than done and his four percent walk rate in 1,313 minor league plate appearances indicates that he has a long ways to go.

Grichuk will not turn 20 until mid-way through the 2011 season, but he already has two professional seasons under his belt. Last season, Grichuk hit .299 with 11 home runs and 46 RBI in 251 at-bats, but he still has to work on his plate discipline after posting a 12:59 BB:K ratio last season. Don't expect Grichuk to advance past High-A Rancho Cucamonga this season.

The Angels' first pick in the 2009 draft is all hitter, an outfielder from a high school in Texas with excellent power. There's not much else to Grichuk, no speed or arm to speak of, making him a different sort of Angel. He's a long, long way from the majors, and the lack of defensive or positional value limits his long-term upside.