This article is part of our The Saber's Edge series.
Last week, I looked at some of the top rookie hitters and what can be expected from them going forward. Pitchers will now be front and center. The pitchers don't have as many highly ranked prospects going into the majors, but some are playing a large role for their team.
As with the hitters, I will be working my way down our preseason top-200 list. Additionally, I will concentrate on pitching statswhich stabilizequickly like velocity, strikeouts and walks. Finally, pitchers who were called up early in the season will be the focus.
Noah Syndergaard (Ranked #10 overall, highest ranked pitcher)
9.7 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 4.03 ERA, 44 IP
Syndergaard has been the best of the pitchers called up this season. He is doing the two most important things a pitcher should do, get as many strikeouts as he can while limiting the number of walks. Of the 144 starting pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched, his 19.7% K%-BB% ranks 19th overall.
With the success, his 4.03 ERA is a little disappointing. By just looking at his ERA estimators, his ERA seems like it could decline with his FIP at 2.93, his xFIP at 3.12 and SIERA at 3.11. The main cause of the high ERA over his ERA estimators is his .349 BABIP. It is over two standard deviations from the league's mean value. A lower ERA seems to be in his future, but I am not sure on how much it may drop.
Last week, I looked at some of the top rookie hitters and what can be expected from them going forward. Pitchers will now be front and center. The pitchers don't have as many highly ranked prospects going into the majors, but some are playing a large role for their team.
As with the hitters, I will be working my way down our preseason top-200 list. Additionally, I will concentrate on pitching statswhich stabilizequickly like velocity, strikeouts and walks. Finally, pitchers who were called up early in the season will be the focus.
Noah Syndergaard (Ranked #10 overall, highest ranked pitcher)
9.7 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 4.03 ERA, 44 IP
Syndergaard has been the best of the pitchers called up this season. He is doing the two most important things a pitcher should do, get as many strikeouts as he can while limiting the number of walks. Of the 144 starting pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched, his 19.7% K%-BB% ranks 19th overall.
With the success, his 4.03 ERA is a little disappointing. By just looking at his ERA estimators, his ERA seems like it could decline with his FIP at 2.93, his xFIP at 3.12 and SIERA at 3.11. The main cause of the high ERA over his ERA estimators is his .349 BABIP. It is over two standard deviations from the league's mean value. A lower ERA seems to be in his future, but I am not sure on how much it may drop.
Syndergaard is a ground ball pitcher and his 45.7% GB% puts in the top half of the league in ground ball rate. Ground balls are generally considered a good results and they have helped him keep his home run rate low (0.8 HR/9). The problem with allowing ground balls is he plays for the Mets. The team's infield defense is the 6th worst in the league with -14 Defensive Runs saved. His owners should expect a higher than expected WHIP and BABIP because of the Mets porous infield defense.
He is probably the top rookie starting pitcher (McCullers is in consideration) in 2015 and nothing in his pitching repertoire points to that distinction changing.
Carlos Rodon (Ranked 15th overall)
8.6 K/9, 5.0 BB/9, 3.75 ERA, 50 IP
Rodon is having an OK start to his MLB career, but he needs to gets his walks under control. Of the 149 pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched, he has the 2nd worst walk rate. I usually consider any walk rate over 3.0 to unacceptable, not alone one over 5.0.
Looking over his stats, his walk issues come down to getting right handed hitters out.
Vs. Hand: K/9, BB/9
Vs RHH: 7.3, 6.1
Vs LHH: 10.7, 3.3
The numbers against right-handed hitters is not going to cut it.
To continue developing, he needs to develop a better changeup or another pitch to keep right-handed hitters off balance. While he has thrown a change 48 times this season, it has not be good. It is only in the strike zone only 23% of the time. Additionally, its swinging strike rate (10.4%) is below average for a change.
Archie Bradley (Ranked 17th overall)
5.8 K/9, 5.6 BB/9, 5.8 ERA, 35 IP
Truthfully, I don't think Bradley is ready for the majors. His struggles may have been related to his shoulder injury, but nothing was working for him.
Like Rodon, he really only have two legit pitches, a fastball and curve. Bradley problem is he can't get out hitters of either hand.
Vs. Hand: K/9, BB/9
Vs RHH: 7.5, 7.1
Vs LHH: 3.2, 3.2
He just doesn't have the command to cut in the in the bigs. Additionally, his 2014 minor league numbers weren't the best. Ignoring four innings pitched in A-ball, here are K/BB values:
League: K/BB
AFL: 1.1
AA: 1.3
AAA: 1.9
A pitcher needs to have a K/BB at least over two to be considered as a reasonable fantasy option. He is not there yet.
Now, one positive output in his limited action is his 58% GB% which puts in in the top 5% of the league's pitchers. When he comes back from the disabled list, monitor his strikeout and walk rate for an improvement before jumping back in. Without some definite changes, he is going to struggle as a pitcher.
Daniel Norris (Ranked 23rd overall)
6.9 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 3.86 ERA, 23 IP
Norris struggled with control in the majors, like Rodon and Bradley, but the Blue Jays sent him back to the minors where he is still working on it. One issue to monitor when he is called up again is his home run allowed rate. His GB% is only 30%. With his home park and others in the AL East being home run prone, he may struggle with the long ball.
Chi Chi Gonzalez (Ranked 42nd overall)
2.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.27 ERA, 35 IP
If there was a poster child for possible ERA regression/correction, it is Gonzalez. It is impossible for pitchers to keep a near 2.00 ERA with a walk rate greater than his strikeout rate. His ERA estimators are pointing to a huge correction with his ERA estimators near 5.00. His LOB% (84%) is over two deviations from the mean while his BABIP (.209) is over three deviation from the mean.
Now, his stats don't point to a highly sought after pitcher. His K/BB was 2.6 last season in AA and dropped to 1.4 this season in AAA. He degrade fairly quickly.
The biggest issue for Gonzalez is his fastball which has dropped in velocity from 2014. In 2014 spring training, his fastball was averaging 94.3 mph. In Baseball America's 2015 Prospect Handbook, they say his fastball is "92-95 mph, touching 97". His fastball is not close to those numbers in the majors. It is averaging 91.4 mph and has touched just over 94 mph.
He is not the same prospect as people saw last season and the 2.27 ERA is not going to stay down. It is the only item in his stats which point to him being an MLB starting pitcher.
Aaron Sanchez (Ranked 44th overall)
5.7 K/9, 5.1 BB/9, 3.55 ERA, 66 IP
It seems like a broken record, but the rookie pitchers this season all have walk issues and it doesn't end with Sanchez. Earlier in the article, I mentioned Rodon had the 2nd worst walk rate (min 40 IP). Well, Sanchez had the worst value.
Sanchez seemed to finally pull it all together in 2014 when he thrived in the bullpen with a 3.0 K/BB and 1.09 ERA. Well, the Blue Jays have moved him back into the rotation with mixed results. Since the Jays are scoring a league leading 5.5 runs per game (the Yankees are second at 4.8 R/G), Sanchez can be a below average pitcher and still give his team a chance to win.
In our fantasy baseball world, his ERA and WHIP can be drag. His ERA may even get worse as his ERA estimators are close to 5.00 (5.18 FIP, 4.57 xFIP, 4.89 SIERA). Until his walk rate is trending under 3.00, I just don't see a reason to roster except in the deepest of leagues.
