This article is part of our Painting the Black series.
PAINTING THE BLACK: THE TRANSFORMATION OF Carlos Carrasco
Top prospects come and go. "Can't miss" prospects usually end up being hoarded by Major League clubs, never to leave their native organizations. Or they end up in blockbuster trades, thrust into the pressure-cooker of expectations to replace the All-Star cleaning out the locker they'll be residing in.
Such is the case with Carlos Carrasco.
The big chip in the Cliff Lee-to-Philadelphia Phillies trade of 2009 oozed of ace potential not this hyped since a young fireballer named Jaret Wright made his ascent to the big leagues in Cleveland. Armed with mid-90s heat, a devastating breaking ball, and the makings of a plus change-up, Carrasco seemed destined for the top of the Indians rotation in a matter of weeks.
Or so we thought.
I was teammates with Carlos (literally the day he got traded and walked over from the Lehigh Valley clubhouse into our Columbus Clippers locker room) from 2009 to 2011. The soft-spoken, quiet-demeanored Venezuelan always seemed to smile and be upbeat on the days of his starts. The talent has never been a question - scouts drooled at his potential and marveled at his swing-and-miss stuff. But something seemed to be missing.
The killer instinct of an "Ace" is sometimes born in a pitcher. Sometimes it's acquired through trials and tribulations. From his first start in Cleveland in 2009, however, Carrasco seemed the farthest thing from those Ace characteristics. He finished that season with a 0-4 record in 5 starts, 8.87 ERA, 11 Ks and 11 BBs.
Examining the numbers a bit further, past my naked eye observations through 2010 & part of 2011, I came away with a couple things:
- in 169.1 IP from '10-'11, before Tommy John surgery ended his 2011 campaign, Carrasco gave up 177 hits, 21 HRs, punched out only 123 and walked a pedestrian 54 batters.
- His BABIP (Batting Average of Balls In Play) never dipped below .296 from 2009-2011.
- His best K/BB ratio (2.71) came in 7 starts in 2010.
- Only one time in those 3 years did he have a ground ball percentage over 50% (2010 - 56.8%).
What do we take from this? In watching him through most of those starts, the numbers seemed to back up my original thoughts:
- Carrasco pitched way too much up in the zone and behind in the count. Ask any pitcher who does that and they'll tell you they see a lot of guys on base and many more crossing home plate.
- His fastball seemed straight, with only average life on it. And he pitched behind in the count a ton. Ask any hitter in the big leagues what their favorite type of pitch to hit is and the majority will undoubtedly want what Carrasco's heater was featuring at that time.
- His mentality the second and third time around the order seemed timid, almost "hoping" to get outs rather than attacking the zone with his power arsenal. Ask any pitching coach what drives them crazy: a guy with front-line stuff that's afraid to use it.
You never wish an injury on anyone, much less the season-ending type Carrasco endured with TJ in 2011. In spite of this, I'd say looking back it might be the blessing-in-disguise that initiated Carrasco's career renaissance.
Coming into the 2013 season, CC was battling for a rotation spot, one he'd eventually relinquish to a spot in the bullpen. It literally became a humbling experience for the right-hander, knowing full well that he was out of options in the 2014 season and needed to show his worth, not only to the organization, but also for his own pride.
Without the pressure of having to "save" his stuff for a start, Carrasco took to a different idea in the bullpen: let it all hang out. Don't save anything; try and throw every pitch as hard as he could. The breakdown of the numbers between his starts in '13 and his time in the pen bear that out:
Rotation: 33 IP, 9.00 ERA, 33 ER, 4 HR, 13 BB, 19 K
Bullpen: 14.2 IP, 1.23 ERA, 2 ER, 0 HR, 5 BB (1 IBB), 11 K
Despite the small sample size of success, the Indians maintained at the end of that season they fully intended Carrasco to be a starter - and they WANTED him to be. With a full offseason in front of him, and the blessing of manager Terry Francona, pitching coach Mickey Callaway and general manager Chris Antonetti, Carrasco knew clearly what his intentions were: make that damn rotation.
He went into spring training of 2014 in competition, yet again, for the fifth and final rotation spot. Josh Tomlin and Aaron Harang gave him quite the run for his money (and both probably, by the numbers, deserved it more than Carlos, however CC was out of options and would be exposed to waivers, undoubtedly snatched up). Nevertheless, when the dust settled, Carrasco again opened the season in the rotation.
What followed could be described as nothing short of a disaster. After such a promising camp, Carrasco fell flat on his face - as though he'd forgotten everything that made him successful at the end of the 2013 campaign. Four starts into 2014 and the numbers were ugly: 0-3, 6.95 ERA, 22 IP, 17 ER, 9 BB, 23 K.
A demotion to the bullpen came immediately. The "can't miss" top prospect for Cliff Lee now looked like a long-man reliever for the rest of the season.
The funny thing about the bullpen, as I can tell you from experience, is that you get a lot of time to think about things.
During the offseason in 2013, Carrasco mulled over his mechanics, thinking a slight adjustment to raising his glove side may allow him to drive the ball downward in the strike zone. No dice. He went back to his original mechanics in relief for his first few bullpen outings of 2014, no harm done. Then back-to-back bad outings, culminating in finishing a blowout loss to Oakland at home 11-1. The frustration was evident. The confusion completely visible. And the answers seemingly far, far away.
Enter Mickey Callaway and bullpen coach Kevin Cash. Of the two men who'd seen Carrasco at his best and worst, both knew there had to be something mentally to turn the tide. The physical tools were unchanged. Velocity remained in the mid-to-high 90s. Breaking stuff was late and nasty. Change-up continued to be a valuable, ever-improving weapon to lefties. But the mental inconsistency seemed like the one area that held everything back. They suggested he go back to what made him so dominant in 2013 - letting it eat from pitch number one. "The bullpen mentality" as its come to be known.
From May 21st, in a huge comeback victory of the rival Tigers, to August 5th (his final bullpen appearance before rejoining the rotation), Carrasco's numbers beamed brightly:
34.2 IP, 1.82 ERA, 24 H, 7 ER, 2 HR, 7 BB, 32 K
The "bullpen mentality" would get its first trial run back in the starting rotation by fluke - between scheduled off days, doubleheaders, and injuries, Carrasco was "forced" back into the rotation to start against the New York Yankees on August 10th. Oh yes, in the Bronx to boot.
But something changed, again. Or, for all intents and purposes, it kept right on staying the same. Carrasco didn't start warming up until about 10 minutes before first pitch, simulating as if he'd been called in the bullpen to be ready for the next inning. The brainchild of both Callaway and Cash seemed to be a little radical since a starting pitcher usually gets underway in their warm up process a healthy 30-40 minutes before game time. Carrasco, however, was no ordinary starter.
An efficient, five-inning, 77-pitch performance ensued, with Carrasco lighting up the radar gun all day, walking none and fanning 4. Oh by the way, nobody crossed home plate. On to something? You bet. But could it continue? Carrasco would get a chance to prove that. Next start: 1st place Baltimore.
I sat and watched every pitch of that Carrasco start in the Orioles/Indians game on August 16th. Many in attendance could say they saw a "star born."
Against a vaunted O's lineup, Carrasco spun seven shutout innings, allowing three hits, walking none and punching out five. He sat between 95-98 mph the entire time. Quick math exhibits 12 straight shutout innings since his rotation rejoin. To date, his last six starts are something only Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, or even rotation-mate Corey Kluber could appreciate:
4-0, 0.70 ERA, .179 opp BA, 42 K/4 BB
The overarching reason for the transformation? The "bullpen mentality." Having a sense of urgency to "let it eat" every pitch until you have nothing left. No saving anything. No holding anything back. In essence, it even took Carrasco's mind out of the equation - get the pitch and just throw the crap out of it. Ladies and gentlemen, as the famous saying goes, "the numbers don't lie."
Any pitcher can tell you confidence is essential to success. If you're Carlos Carrasco right now, nobody - not even video game hitters - can touch him. And in a pennant race, that's the kind of starter you want to have out there with your season on the line. From pitch number one.
