Pitching 3D: Starting Pitchers 71-80

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Updated on March 4, 2017 8:37PM EST

Welcome to the final set of ranked pitchers, crossing over to the 28-point pitchers in our system and closing out the top-80 starters on the DT rankings.

Here's a quick review of the rankings:

Introduction to the ratings
Rating NFBC SP 1-10
Rating NFBC SP 11-21
Rating DT SP 22-30 (and 19)
Rating DT SP 31-40
Rating DT SP 41-50
Rating DT SP 51-60
Rating DT SP 61-70

There are a few pitchers whose names have yet to be called, players who fall short of the 28-point threshold yet whose ADP suggests that they are worthy of consideration before this point in the player pool. I have a few follow-up pieces in the works, with the intent to review the new system and to detect biases inherent in the process, and these players that missed the cut will soon be covered.

Jason Hammel
NFBC ADP: 75
DT Rank: 71

K	6 of 10
ERA	3 of 6
WHIP	4 of 6
W	2 of 3
IP	5 of 10
Stuff	4 of 8
Mechanics	5 of 7
TOTAL	29 of 50

Welcome to the final set of ranked pitchers, crossing over to the 28-point pitchers in our system and closing out the top-80 starters on the DT rankings.

Here's a quick review of the rankings:

Introduction to the ratings
Rating NFBC SP 1-10
Rating NFBC SP 11-21
Rating DT SP 22-30 (and 19)
Rating DT SP 31-40
Rating DT SP 41-50
Rating DT SP 51-60
Rating DT SP 61-70

K	6 of 10
ERA	3 of 6
WHIP	4 of 6
W	2 of 3
IP	5 of 10
Stuff	4 of 8
Mechanics	5 of 7
TOTAL	29 of 50

Traded to the Royals in the offseason, Hammel's change of uniform won't do much for his run support or his balls in play, given that he is coming from the World Champion Cubs and their incredible defense. He was a hit-per-inning, mid-4.00s ERA starter prior to joining the Cubs, but he improved his strikeout and walk rates during his Chicago tenure, so the expectation is more along the lines of simple regression to the mean than a complete turn for the worst with his performance. Hammel has never cleared 180 innings in a season and his K rate is a detriment in many leagues, but he has average stuff and a solid delivery, supporting the expectation that he can hold his own in his new digs. That said, we likely saw his best work back in 2015, as Hammel now heads into his age-34 season.

Trevor Bauer
NFBC ADP: 70
DT Rank: 72

K	6
ERA	2
WHIP	3
W	2
IP	7
Stuff	5
Mechanics	4
TOTAL	29

Bauer simplified his approach last season, putting a stop to a previous tendency to move to the left side of the rubber against left-handed batters and moving to the right-side of the rubber for right-handed bats, a complicating wrinkle that upped the level of difficulty to master his own delivery. The right-hander began last season in the Cleveland bullpen and then moved back to the starting rotation, and in his first 12 starts Bauer compiled an impressive 2.96 ERA and a 70:25 K:BB in 79.0 innings, but after a five-inning scoreless effort in extra frames, the wheels fell off the wagon to the tune of a 5.51 ERA and and 81:37 K:BB over his final 16 starts, covering 94.2 innings.

The delivery morphs every season and he has a plethora of pitches in his arsenal, but the lack of consistency can be maddening for a player who is often trying to play three-dimensional chess on the mound despite not yet having mastered checkers. He falls to the bottom of the 29ers due to the likelihood that he will pitch a lot of innings in 2017 and that those innings will be a drag on the ratios with not enough help in the strikeout department to compensate.

Aaron Nola
NFBC ADP: 46
DT Rank: 73

K	7
ERA	3
WHIP	3
W	2
IP	3
Stuff	4
Mechanics	6
TOTAL	28

Nola is one of the biggest droppers in this system, falling from his NFBC ADP of no. 46 among starting pitchers to no. 74 according to the DT system. This happens despite the fact that Nola earns six points out of a possible seven for his mechanics, as his delivery features excellent balance and a very efficient path of momentum, elements that are not part of the NFBC ranking and should give him a leg up on the DT scale.

The problem with Nola's case arises when looking at his medical report as well as his track record; the right-hander had a low-grade strain of his UCL, an ailment that cost him the last six weeks of last season, and he opted to forego surgery in preference to rest and rehab. I have expressed my pessimism for similar pitchers under the same umbrella, and his three points (out of 10) in the innings category reflect my skepticism as to Nola's innings. Toss in the fact that he has never put up an ERA under 3.58 at Triple-A or the majors, and we are left with the distinct possibility that Nola falls short of expectations.

Drew Smyly
NFBC ADP: 61
DT Rank: 74

K	6
ERA	4
WHIP	4
W	2
IP	6
Stuff	4
Mechanics	2
TOTAL	28

I can't stand Smyly's delivery. By the time he reaches release point, Smyly is left standing on one leg and tilting like Phil Hellmuth after getting rivered, leading me to tab Smyly as the "drunken flamingo" due to his instability. The extreme over-the-top of his motion means that his misses tend to be up-down rather than in-out, exposing pitch command that is worse than his walk rate indicates and leading to a high rate of flyballs (and hence home runs) allowed. The stats are thus an extension of his delivery, left to the whims of high homer rates and an inconsistent release point.

J.A. Happ
NFBC ADP: 43
DT Rank: 75

K	5
ERA	3
WHIP	3
W	2
IP	6
Stuff	4
Mechanics	5
TOTAL	28

Happ falls in the Nola camp as a pitcher who ranks in the mid-40s according to NFBC ADP but who slips to the mid-70s on the DT system. The reasons behind their respective falls are very different, though. In the case of Happ, we are dealing with a player with a lengthy career of subpar performance who finally and suddenly put it together last season. Happ threw a career-high 195 innings last year in his age-33 season, despite never having pitched more than 172 frames in a big-league campaign, and such a bumpy track record leaves us with little choice but to peg him for about 175 innings in 2017 (and that might be generous).

He won 20 ballgames, a factor that is buoying his draft-day value but is extremely unlikely to be repeated (his previous single-season high was 12 wins), leaving a player with mediocre ratios, a subpar K rate and a history of ERAs in the mid-4.00s. I don't see enough changes in his underlying skills - stuff, mechanics - to warrant a major adjustment in expectations, so those that draft Happ early are crossing their fingers that he can repeat his outlier of a 2016 season.

Jose De Leon
NFBC ADP: 114
DT Rank: 76

K	8
ERA	4
WHIP	4
W	1
IP	1
Stuff	5
Mechanics	5
TOTAL	28

I understand the low ADP with NFBC, a standing that is substantiated by the "1" rating in innings this season (and also a "1" in wins, just 5.4 IP per start in Triple-A) - the righty is making a push for a rotation slot this spring, is not guaranteed innings at the highest level and has never pitched more than 115 frames in a pro season. But I have De Leon ranked higher on my board because I think that his 100 innings could have that much of an impact.

De Leon has a very interesting delivery, with big momentum and huge power that he maintains on a very firm line to the plate and which continues toward the target after release point. He loses vertical balance after leg lift though the lateral balance is awesome. However, his new organization (traded from the Dodgers to the Rays in the offseason) are known for the exact opposite pattern with their pitchers, preferring a blatant stay-back approach with a slow charge to the plate. The Rays have generally had a lot of success with the approach, so it remains to be seen if they try to slow down De Leon - if they do, his mechanics grade drops a point and he could witness a spike in walks or a delayed promotion to the show as he adjusts to a new timing pattern to his delivery.

Dylan Bundy
NFBC ADP: 76
DT Rank: 77

K	6
ERA	4
WHIP	3
W	2
IP	2
Stuff	6
Mechanics	5
TOTAL	28

Bundy's delivery is relatively simple, but despite all the draft day talk of his having pristine mechanics - and despite his not changing the delivery much at all in the meantime - he still has a lot of side-to-side in the motion. The lateral imbalance starts early, before foot strike, as his head veers toward the third base side during his stride, before engaging spine-tilt that sends the head in the opposite direction. He still finishes with a statuesque follow-through, and though this takes place after the baseball has left his hand, I have long postulated that his pretty finish has swayed some evaluators into upgrading his mechanics. The motion is a solid five points on the mechanics scale, but it's nowhere near a six. The stuff is legit, including a mid-90s heater that he throws with a range of movements and velocities, a curveball that batters couldn't touch last season and a sick changeup with excellent fade that might be the best of the bunch. I think that he can take a big step up, but the question remains as to how many innings the Orioles will be willing to strap to his back.

Jeremy Hellickson
NFBC ADP: 93
DT Rank: 78

K	5
ERA	3
WHIP	3
W	2
IP	6
Stuff	4
Mechanics	5
TOTAL	28

The changeup was key to Hellickson's success last season, a pitch that he threw 26 percent of the time and which rated as one of the most effective pitches in the game. Opposing batters hit just .173 off the change and Helix used it to polish off more than half his strikeouts last season. His 3.71 ERA of 2016 was his first sub-4.50 mark in four seasons, and his steady peripherals often leave his fantasy stats at the mercy of the results on balls in play. Hellickson has a very stable delivery with excellent balance throughout the motion, an element that helps to support his consistent peripherals. His command is better than walk rates will indicate and Helix has spent his career living on the fringes of the strike zone, trying to coax batters to swing at balls.

Jharel Cotton
NFBC ADP: 82
DT Rank: 79

K	6
ERA	4
WHIP	5
W	2
IP	4
Stuff	4
Mechanics	3
TOTAL	28

Traded from the Dodgers to the A's midway through last season, Cotton stopped walking people upon reaching his new organization, giving away just 11 free passes in 68.2 innings (1.4 BB/9) between Triple-A Nashville and Oakland. Making the feat all the more improbable is that Cotton carried a very unstable delivery, with balance that was all over the place: a back-sean lean as part of a rock-n-roll pattern, side-to-side imbalance during his lift and stride, spine-tilt as he approached release point. Cotton often fell off the mound during his follow-through as an indicator of the instability.

The stuff is decent, but his velocity is solid-average and the curveball - while it has impressive depth - is also manipulated near release point, such that the pitch leaves his hand on a different trajectory than his fastball, giving the hammer a unique tunnel that might be easier for opposing batters to identify once they've faced Cotton a few times. He has supposedly revamped his delivery since last year, something that the A's likely avoided with their new charge in the first several weeks after acquiring him, making him a key player to watch and evaluate this spring.

Joe Musgrove
NFBC ADP: 109
DT Rank: 80

K	5
ERA	3
WHIP	4
W	2
IP	4
Stuff	4
Mechanics	6
TOTAL	28

Musgrove was all the rage for about 15 second last season, striking out 21 batters and walking just two over his first three games, covering 18.1 innings of 1.47 ERA baseball. The fact the games came against Texas and Toronto (twice) was just icing on the cake. One game, 11 hits and eight runs later, Musgrove had burned fantasy managers that had just begun to trust him, leaving a bitter taste that can take a long time to forget. He was extremely stingy with walks in the minors, recording just 1.1 BB/9 in 337.1 frames and leading to a WHIP just 1.04 during that stretch. His delivery blends power and stability to support the notion that he can continue to exhibit exceedingly-low walk numbers. He's competing for the No. 5 spot in Houston's rotation and Musgrove might have some sneaky value in the ratio categories if he gets the gig.