Pitching 3D: Starting Pitchers 41-50

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Updated on February 20, 2017 1:48PM EST

Our journey through the starting pitcher ranks of the fantasy kingdom continues with those players outside the top 40. The deeper we get into the ranks, the more fantasy managers will be looking for defining characteristics that set individuals apart from the burgeoning bubble of mid-tier fantasy starters.

Here's a quick review of the rankings:

Introduction to the ratings
Rating NFBC SP 1-10
Rating NFBC SP 11-21
Rating DT SP 22-30 (and 19)
Rating DT SP 31-40

This week's lot includes a handful of 31-point pitchers as well as those at top of the 30-point scale, a group that includes the young-and-unproven in addition to formerly-great pitchers who have recently fallen on hard times.

Vince Velasquez
NFBC ADP: 49
DT Rank: 41

K	8 of 10
ERA	3 of 6
WHIP	3 of 6
W	2 of 3
IP	5 of 10
Stuff	5 of 8
Mechanics	5 of 7
TOTAL	31 of 50

Here's a quick review of the rankings:

Introduction to the ratings
Rating NFBC SP 1-10
Rating NFBC SP 11-21
Rating DT SP 22-30 (and 19)
Rating DT SP 31-40

K	8 of 10
ERA	3 of 6
WHIP	3 of 6
W	2 of 3
IP	5 of 10
Stuff	5 of 8
Mechanics	5 of 7
TOTAL	31 of 50

Not a single player in the previous set of 10 pitchers earned higher than a "7" in the strikeout category, but the 40s kick off with a young right-hander who registered 10.4 K/9 last season, a number that carries more sticker-shock that his 27.4 percent K rate due to the high volume of batters that Velasquez faced on a per-inning basis. He was tattooed for 1.4 HR/9 and was on the wrong side of average with a .334 BABiP against him, so there is room for improvement on his ratios, but his projected strikeout total is higher than any other player in today's group. Development of his secondary pitches will be the main focus of 2017, as the fastball was the only pitch in his arsenal to allow less than a .525 slugging percentage, checking in at a .391 SLG against. The fastball also finished off 72 percent of his strikeouts last season, a feat made all the more impressive by the fact that his velocity is merely plus, averaging 94.3 mph (weighted four-seam and two-seam).

Dallas Keuchel
NFBC ADP: 34
DT Rank: 42

K	5
ERA	5
WHIP	4
W	2
IP	7
Stuff	4
Mechanics	4
TOTAL	31

Reports surfaced recently that Keuchel pitched through a bum shoulder last season, a factor which might explain the tick that he lost off of his fastball, though sheer velocity has never been his bag. Given the strength of the previous two seasons, there's reason to believe that he is due for a rebound, though it's worth noting that Keuchel's game revolves around generating weak contact rather than strikeouts. The tremendous movement on his sinker ensures high rates of groundballs, and I foresee a return to the 2.75-3.25 range of ERA, as Keuchel is only pitcher with a five in the ERA category among the pitchers in this group (the rest earn a four or lower).

John Lackey
NFBC ADP: 37
DT Rank: 43

K	5
ERA	4
WHIP	4
W	2
IP	7
Stuff	4
Mechanics	5
TOTAL	31

As volatile of a statistic as wins can be, Lackey is nearly a lock to get his two points in the category, having won between 10 and 14 games in each of the last eight seasons (and 12 of the last 13). The 38-year-old veteran may not offer a sexy profile of state or stuff, but he does offer rare consistency for a pitcher available at this point in drafts. For the past four seasons, Lackey has pitched 188 or more innings with an ERA under 3.85 in each campaign, and up until last season he kept the true outcomes light with just two walks per nine and 7.5 K/9, and though both rates jumped up in 2016, the result was still within reason while offering more strikeouts (8.6 K/9) to go with the extra walks (2.5 BB/9). Lackey has been a rock for the past several years, but the moss that has gathered has caused him to go relatively unnoticed on draft day, serving as a reminder to leave no stone unturned.

Marcus Stroman
NFBC ADP: 40
DT Rank: 44

K	5
ERA	3
WHIP	4
W	2
IP	7
Stuff	5
Mechanics	5
TOTAL	31

What was once considered double-plus velocity was down to 93.7 mph last year (4-seamer only), and though he is great with movement, the command is still lacking. His delivery was inconsistent, as what used to be a solid motion that earned a grade of a high-B or B+ on the mechanics report card was highly volatile last season. Stroman still flashed his plus mechanics, but there were days on which his delivery was off-line to the target and his limbs flailed during the motion, exhibiting a lack of control of his own delivery. With an inability to translate his impressive minor league K rates to the highest level, along with the degradation to his stuff and mechanics, it is tougher to get behind the hype that he is currently getting as a potential breakout candidate for 2017.

Jake Odorizzi
NFBC ADP: 50
DT Rank: 45

K	6
ERA	4
WHIP	4
W	2
IP	6
Stuff	5
Mechanics	4
TOTAL	31

Odorizzi is all about pitch movement. He throws as many as six pitches (seven if you consider the four-seam and two-seam fastballs as distinct), all of which have movement, making up for merely average velocity (92.5 mph) by keeping batters guessing as to the identity of what's incoming. His secondary of choice is a splitter that Odorizzi throws about 20 percent of the time, and which was the only non-fastball pitch in the arsenal to finish off double-digit strikeouts last season. The vast majority of his Ks come on the fastball, including 127 of his 166 strikeouts last season (76.5 percent), underscoring the elements of deception, movement and command that supplement his heater, marginalizing the impact of his middle-of-the-road velo. Mechanically, Odorizzi has a slow delivery with heavy spine-tilt late in the delivery, and though these elements aren't egregious (the slow pace is typical of Rays pitchers), it does knock his mechanics grade down to C-grade territory.

Rick Porcello
NFBC ADP: 22
DT Rank: 46

K	5
ERA	4
WHIP	3
W	3
IP	7
Stuff	4
Mechanics	5
TOTAL	31

Nobody's ranking drops further in this system than Rick Porcello, a detail that occurs despite the fact that he's the only pitcher aside from Kyle Hendricks (no.31) who earns a "3" in the wins category despite being outside the top 18 starters overall. Porcello put those ratios to shame last season, particularly a WHIP that was 0.20 points lower than anything he had put up over a previous full campaign, and though it's certainly possible that he has found a new tier of performance, it's also hard to ignore the previous seven seasons, during which he compiled a composite ERA of 4.39 with a 1.36 WHIP.

His walk rate plummeted, and if he keeps those gains then it will be much easier to out-score the WHIP projection, but keep in mind that at the root of his success was a hit rate of 7.8 H/9 that was a full 1.5 H/9 lower than in any previous season. Porcello is a notorious groundballing machine, allowing him to survive better than the average hurler among the short porches of Fenway Park, but his stuff profile does little to back up the improvement. He did lose about a tick from each of his secondaries without dropping velo from his heat, giving Porcello some extra spread in his average pitch-speeds, but I'm skeptical about his ability to repeat last year's magic, and he has few strikeouts to fall back on from a fantasy perspective.

Matt Harvey
NFBC ADP: 33
DT Rank: 47

K	7
ERA	4
WHIP	4
W	2
IP	2
Stuff	6
Mechanics	5
TOTAL	30

I suppose it goes without saying that his upside is way higher than this. Harvey is less than two years removed from an A-grade delivery and seven-point stuff, with the incredible numbers to match, as The right-hander was on the short list of the game's best pitchers. But he showed up as a different player last season, with compromised mechanics, stuff and athleticism. Thoracic Outlet Syndrome may have been at the root of his issues, but the track record of pitchers returning from that surgery is anything but glowing. The tools that formed the foundation of his elite performance just two years ago could return, but I guess I'm more pessimistic about his return to prominence than the NFBC consensus, which is too bad, because I'm a firm believer that he was exceptional once and that pitchers can get back what was once there. There are just not enough examples of pitchers who have returned successfully from Thoracic Outlet surgery, and the last version of Harvey that we saw on a big league mound was a physical shell of the pitcher that dominated just a year prior.

I wouldn't trust him with any of the top 3-4 spots in a rotation, but Harvey is a major upside gamble well-suited for the back-end of a fantasy staff. Anything that I throw out there for stat projections is a total guess, as he was that different of a pitcher, so this particular dart throw plays it safe and splits the bit, but the odds are that he will end up on one side of the fence rather than riding it. Check back in spring training, as we need to see if he looks more like the efficient 2015 version or the mess from '16.

Sonny Gray
NFBC ADP: 48
DT Rank: 48

K	5
ERA	4
WHIP	4
W	2
IP	5
Stuff	5
Mechanics	5
TOTAL	30

The ranking system may have registered a direct hit on Gray when looking at his ADP, but it was his battleship that sunk last season, dropping a bomb of regret on an Oakland front office that was hell-bent on keeping Gray in the green-n-gold last offseason, despite his trade value having peaked and the A's having very little attachment to their players. Gray had survived by a very low hit rate in the past, one that stayed in the range of 7.0-7.7 H/9, and though we can expect that he'll improve greatly upon the 10.2 H/9 disaster of last season, it's also a significant risk to expect that a pitcher who hasn't posted more than 7.5 K/9 since his rookie campaign to sustain the low ratios necessary to offset the strikeout deficiencies. His stuff and delivery are good enough to trust for a rebound, but given that Gray was likely playing over his head prior to 2016 and you have the recipe for a pitcher whose name value will inflate his price on draft day. He dealt with two injuries and pitched just 117 innings last season, so even if he brings the inflated homer rate (1.4 HR/9) back to earth, the right-hander runs the risk of not pitching enough to let even good ratios make a dent in a fantasy team's bottom line.

Steven Matz
NFBC ADP: 38
DT Rank: 49

K	6
ERA	4
WHIP	4
W	2
IP	5
Stuff	5
Mechanics	4
TOTAL	30

Matz is yet another case of an injured pitcher who falls far down my ranks compared to the NFBC consensus. The issue with these players is that I see the potential for not only a truncated innings-count, but also the possibility for compromised ratios if the pitcher is still off of his physical peak. Injuries to a pitcher's throwing arm have a galling tendency to persist, and given that Matz had injuries to both his throwing shoulder and elbow last season (but only had surgery on the elbow), and there is a good chance that the player who shows up to camp lacks the physical attributes that put Matz on the prospect map to begin with.

Matz lacks the MLB track record to inspire confidence that he can make do in the event that his arm is not back to 100 percent. I have to admit that I'm also not a big fan of his curveball, a loopy breaking pitch that leaves his hand on a different plane than his fastball, making it relatively easy for opposing batters to identify out of hand. The arm action and delivery look better on the fastball but it still grades out a sa B- on the mechanics report card, and the volatility between pitch types brings his grade down to a four out of seven.

Taijuan Walker
NFBC ADP: 65
DT Rank: 50

K	6
ERA	3
WHIP	4
W	2
IP	5
Stuff	5
Mechanics	5
TOTAL	30

Walker has seemingly been on the prospect radar for years, and though his stuff and delivery provide a substantial baseline for success at the highest level, a lack of consistency has followed the right-hander throughout his pro career. He has made numerous mechanical changes over the years and was even altering his delivery at the end of last season, and a 2.45 ERA over his final four starts of the year provide a glimmer of optimism that he has finally turned the corner. He has to do better than the atrocious rate of 1.8 HR/9 that he gave up last season, giving him the upside to be an asset in the ratio categories even if the K rate stays within the vicinity of 8.0 K/9 (as it has the last few years). He will call a tougher ballpark home this season, adding a caveat that any physical improvement could be masked statistically this season, but there is still plenty of room for growth from a player who is entering his age-24 season.