Pitching 3D: Starting Pitchers 31-40

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Updated on February 16, 2017 8:57PM EST

The clustering continues as we work our way down the value ladder of fantasy starting pitchers. After the eight players who tied with 33 points apiece in our last edition, this time we have another eight starting pitchers, each of whom checks in with 32 points on our scale of stats, stuff and mechanics. We'll also cover a pair of arms that top the set of 31-point pitchers, but who slipped far down these rankings when compared to the NFBC ADP.

Here's a quick review of the rankings:

Introduction to the ratings
Rating NFBC SP 1-10
Rating NFBC SP 11-21
Rating DT SP 22-30 (and 19)

With that out of the way, let's dive right in.

Kyle Hendricks
NFBC ADP: 16
DT Rank: 31

K	6 of 10
ERA	4 of 6
WHIP	5 of 6
W	3 of 3
IP	7 of 10
Stuff	4 of 8
Mechanics	3 of 7
TOTAL	32 of 50

Here's a quick review of the rankings:

Introduction to the ratings
Rating NFBC SP 1-10
Rating NFBC SP 11-21
Rating DT SP 22-30 (and 19)

With that out of the way, let's dive right in.

Kyle Hendricks
NFBC ADP: 16
DT Rank: 31

K	6 of 10
ERA	4 of 6
WHIP	5 of 6
W	3 of 3
IP	7 of 10
Stuff	4 of 8
Mechanics	3 of 7
TOTAL	32 of 50

I covered Hendricks earlier in my rankings (above link: SP 11-21), back when I was tracing the NFBC ADP, for anyone who wants a full re-hash of why he ranks so low in this system. I've re-posted his fantasy report card here for the sake of comparison to other 32-point pitchers, and it's worth noting that he stands out in a couple of categories. For starters, he is the only pitcher this far down in the DT Ranks who gets a "3" in the wins category, thanks to the likelihood that he'll spend the whole year pitching efficient innings for the World Champion Cubs, but it's worth noting that he won just 16 games last year despite a 2.13 ERA that was the lowest in the majors. I don't expect him to repeat anything close to that ERA, but he could thwart expectations. Of perhaps greater value are the 5 points that he earns in the WHIP category, as every other pitcher in his cohort earns a 4 or lower due to the expectation of a WHIP higher than 1.15 this season.

Aaron Sanchez
NFBC ADP: 28
DT Rank: 32

K	5
ERA	5
WHIP	4
W	2
IP	6
Stuff	5
Mechanics	5
TOTAL	32

Sanchez pitched a career-high (majors and minors) 192.0 innings last season, a 90-inning jump from the previous (or any) season, then went ahead and threw another 11.2 innings in the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how Jays deploy Sanchez this season, given that his workload exceeded their own targets due to his value and the team's playoff run. They might take it easy on Sanchez, at least in the first half of the season. The Ks are lacking but he makes up the difference in the ratio categories - last year's AL ERA leader (3.00) has a 2.87 career mark in 317.1 innings.

Kevin Gausman
NFBC ADP: 39
DT Rank: 33

K	6
ERA	4
WHIP	3
W	2
IP	7
Stuff	5
Mechanics	5
TOTAL	32

When it comes to the physical components, Gausman is blessed with plus pitch-speed, a nasty secondary pitch (his split) and strong mechanics, including the demonstrated ability to adapt his delivery and respond to coaching. However, I am often amazed at how well hitters can square up the fastball, even pulling the pitch at max velocity, and his breaking stuff is sorely lacking. I'm a big fan of the right-hander's profile, but there is a sizable gap between what he could be and what he is, and further refinement of his repertoire will be needed to bridge that gap.

Sean Manaea
NFBC ADP: 47
DT Rank: 34

K	6
ERA	4
WHIP	4
W	2
IP	6
Stuff	5
Mechanics	5
TOTAL	32

Manea's 2016 season was a tale of two halves. Through his first start of July (11 starts total), the southpaw carried a 5.85 ERA, having been hit up for four or more runs in six of those 11 starts, with a 49:20 K:BB in 60.0 innings, extending past 90 pitches just four times. From July 10 through the end of the season, Manaea carried a 2.44 ERA with a 75:17 K:BB in 84.2 frames, and though his per-game pitch counts were still kept in check, the A's let him go past the century mark five times in 13 starts. He didn't throw more than 88 pitches in any of his last three starts, despite throwing six-plus innings in each, and that high-level efficiency will Manaea to build his innings count this season. The 6 in Ks reflects slight optimism that his nutty K rates of the minors will translate a tick higher (was 20.9 percent last year), and he could actually go much bigger if minors K rates are to be trusted. Finally, his mechanics have evolved beautifully, and though a balance issue during his stride keeps at a 5-of-7 in that category, the direction and pace of his momentum are excellent and he has all of the baselines to improve.

Adam Wainwright
NFBC ADP: 54
DT Rank: 35

K	5
ERA	4
WHIP	4
W	2
IP	8
Stuff	4
Mechanics	5
TOTAL	32

That's right, I have Waino ranked ahead of players such as Rick Porcello and Danny Duffy, and folks must think I'm crazy. To a certain extent, this is a product of the system, which rewards those with a more extended track record and which weighs innings pitched so heavily. My guess is that we would see something similar from the projection systems, based on the height of his performance in recent seasons. The line of thinking isn't that far from that of Felix Hernandez, in terms of players with sustained runs of greatness who hit a bump in the road last year, and in this case they're both long-established vets but not exactly old fogies, and pitching doesn't follow an aging pattern that's as predictable as that for hitters. Wainwright is heading into his age-35 season, so he's undeniably long in the tooth, but for a pitcher whose velocity held firm (it was actually higher than '15, 0.25 mph lower than '14) whole his pitch command went south for the summer, he seems to be getting unfairly taxed on the value scale because of his age and his rough 2016 campaign.

Carlos Rodon
NFBC ADP: 57
DT Rank: 36

K	7
ERA	3
WHIP	3
W	2
IP	6
Stuff	5
Mechanics	6
TOTAL	32

The White Sox claim that they're going to extend Rodon's leash this year, so that "6" in innings (corresponds with a projected 150-165 frames) should be surpassed so long as the lefty remains healthy. He was a free-pass machine in his rookie season and traded a lot of those walks for hits in 2016, but I project an improvement on his WHIP for this season (the 3 points is equivalent to a WHIP of 1.25-1.35) and he could post a 4-point ERA (3.25-3.75) for the first time in his career. I see a ton of upside with the young lefty, hence the lofty ranking when comparing this system to NFBC ADP (no. 57 SP overall), but Rodon already has displayed the tools and learning curve to succeed in the major leagues, and I don't think that it will take much to vault his ranking. It's a good time to remember that Rodon threw just 34.1 innings in the minors before he was shuttled to Chicago and has essentially spent the past two years doing his minor league learning against major league competition.

Meanwhile, there has been plenty of development. I claimed before last season that he would cut his walk rate by a full 1.0 BB/9, instead he went down 1.7 BB/9, from 4.6 to a league-average 2.9 BB/9. In 2015, his fastball velocity went down every single month of the season, culminating in a September average of 93.7 mph; in 2016, his velocity went up in five of the six months of the season (the other was within 0.1 mph), culminating in a season-high mark of 94.9 mph in September. Rodon's fastball was hit hard last year, and oddly enough, it was hit hardest when thrown out of the strike zone, so how he evolves his approach with how he attacks the zone will be an intriguing subplot to this season, especially since he's getting better at hitting spots. Oh, and his delivery is awesome, forming the foundation for a more stable release point in the near future.

Jeff Samardzija
NFBC ADP: 44
DT Rank: 37

K	5
ERA	3
WHIP	4
W	2
IP	8
Stuff	5
Mechanics	5
TOTAL	32

The Shark is relatively boring in the sense of expected fantasy stats, but he's playing home games in one of the toughest ballparks to hit homers, taming the least trained of his tendencies, and he is otherwise well-suited for success in San Francisco. Samardzija has a solid delivery and a plethora of pitches that dip, dive, dart and dodge en route to home plate. He averages more than 95 mph with heavy movement on his 4-seamer), opposing batters couldn't generate loft on his deep-diving curveball, and his strategy of inducing weak contact was much more effective in the National League at AT&T than it was in the AL at the Cell. The strikeout have downside so he might need a relieving caddy, but at this stage in the game teams looking for innings could do worse than go Shark hunting.

Jon Gray
NFBC ADP: 51
DT Rank: 38

K	7
ERA	2
WHIP	3
W	2
IP	6
Stuff	6
Mechanics	6
TOTAL	32

If this guy gets traded, then he instantly rockets up a dozen spots in the ranks. This is a pitcher with excellent stuff and an awesome delivery, ingredients that set the stage for an immense strikeout total. The problem is that he pitches his home games in MLB's equivalent to pitcher hell, and then Gray went and complicated things by having some of his best games of 2016 at home and some of his biggest disasters on the road. Look no further than September of last season: Gray allowed six runs over 4.0 innings to the lowly Padres at the pitcher haven of Petco Park, then one week later he crushed those Pads with 16 strikeouts in a shutout played in the thin air of Denver. His walk rate was double when pitching on the road. Fantasy owners will cross their fingers that he gets traded, because he offers too much upside not to deploy, but each time it feels like playing with fire, and that fire does not seem to be confined to playing at Coors. Drafting Gray is not for the faint of heart.

Danny Duffy
NFBC ADP: 27
DT Rank: 39

K	6
ERA	4
WHIP	4
W	2
IP	6
Stuff	5
Mechanics	4
TOTAL	31

Duffy tops the 31-point group, but he is one of the biggest droppers when comparing my DT ranks to the NFBC ADP. To be honest, I just don't trust some of the ridiculous improvements to his numbers last season, especially when considering the caveats. Walks had been a problem whole career, but Duffy suddenly sliced 'em in 2016 with 2.1 BB/9, though he still managed a 1.14 WHIP (hence the 4 in that category). His K rate also leapt off the page last season, after sitting in the 18-20 percent range for years, he hit 25.7 percent in '16. The fastball's velocity spiked by more than a full mph last season, and the slider was thrown much harder - 2.7 mph harder - but also lost a bunch of depth off of the vertical break (more than three inches, according to Brooks Baseball).

Perhaps he shows up with exactly 2016's repertoire, or perhaps he displays a different array in his repertoire, but we can't be sure until we see it. Throw on top of the uncertainty an unstable delivery and a gross home run rate (1.4 HR/9 in 2016), resulting in a 3.51 ERA in his breakout year, and the fact that he's only one more than nine games once (last season's 12 Ws), and it seems that there is significant risk while we may have already seen the upside. Give it another season and I'll be more of a believer, but for now I'm skeptical, and the projected numbers involve a hedge that he will give a little bit back but still be significantly better than he was before '16.

Michael Fulmer
NFBC ADP: 32
DT Rank: 40

K	5
ERA	4
WHIP	5
W	2
IP	6
Stuff	5
Mechanics	4
TOTAL	31

Last season's AL Rookie of the Year certainly earned his accolades, though Fulmer is a good example of a pitcher who has more value in real-life baseball than in the fantasy game, one who excels because of excellent pitch command and a knack for inducing weak contact. Big numbers in the strikeout department have never been a part of his game, but he carries a stable delivery and a three-pitch repertoire, with each of his offerings registering as above average to plus but with none qualifying as elite. The fastball averaged 95.8 mph last season, the changeup resulted in just three extra-base hits (all doubles) in 96 at-bats that ended on the pitch, and the slider was very effective against right-handed batters (though it plunked a few lefties). The approach is low in true outcomes but one that should help to anchor down the ratios.