Regan's Rumblings: Running the Numbers

With advanced metrics freely available on sites such as RotoWire, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus, the amount of information available to fantasy owners is staggering. Most recently, we have things like exit velocity to look at (see future article), and we can even measure when a guy changes his swing to get more loft on the ball (Justin Turner being a recent example). This week we'll discuss hard hit rate and swinging strike rate, taking a look at a handful of pitchers and hitters that stood out when I ran the numbers.

Non-superstars with a superstar hard hit rate

The thought here is to look at guys that are hitting the ball hard and determining whether their slash line/overall performance is going to improve, stay the same, or take a dive.

Hard hit rate in parentheses. 31.5% is league average

Nick Castellanos (3B-DET, 57.1%)

Castellanos is 7-for-17 in his last four games, so perhaps he's picking thing up. Castellanos leads the league in hard hit rate, but he's still hitting just .252/.319/.466. A 29.2% K% is largely to blame, and his FB% is a bit low at 32.9%, but when a guy is hitting the ball that hard, good thing should be happening. Castellanos had a mini-breakout last year when he improved his OPS over 2015 by 105 points, batting .285/.331/.496. I am encouraged by the walk rate improving from 6.3% to 8%, so once he starts putting the bat on the ball with increased frequency, the results should improve.

Tim Beckham (SS-TB, 51.8%)

This guy again? I keep thinking at some point I will stop writing about him, but he has the second highest hard-hit rate in the game and it's led to a decent .274/.315/.500 slash that includes four homers, a 5.6% BB% and 32.2% K%. With his skillset, Beckham would be a legitimate 20/10 guy over the course of a full season, but he's also a career .244/.293/.443 hitter with a >30% K%, so there's obviously some batting average downside. That said, he's a legitimate threat to maintain a .800 OPS with that sort of hard hit rate. Matt Duffy (heel) is due back later this month and will presumably take over the everyday shortstop role, but Beckham should play plenty, perhaps at multiple positions, including second base where Brad Miller is batting just .220 with one home run.

Joey Gallo (3B/OF-TEX, 51%)

Gallo is getting regular at-bats and the result is a Gallo-like .205/.327/.500 with seven homers, a 13.3% BB%, and 34.7% K%. It's been a real "three true outcomes" type of season so far, so 55% of the time, you'll see either a walk, strikeout, or home run from Gallo, which is off the charts. With Adrian Beltre out for at least two more weeks with a calf injury, Gallo should continue to play every day at the hot corner. When Beltre comes back, I can see Gallo shuffling between 1B, LF, 3B, and DH. I am not a big Gallo guy, as he's always struck out well over 30% of the time, even in the minors. Sure the power is nice and I think he could hit 40 homers at some point, but this is basically Chris Carter here. Those four steals don't hurt though.

Marcell Ozuna (OF-MIA, 50%)

After hitting .227/.292/.432 through May 1 last year, Ozuna is hitting .293/.353/.554 through the same date this season. We've seen bouts of brilliance from Ozuna before, such as his .411 May last year, but he also batted .250 or lower in four months in 2016. Perhaps this is the year, at age 26, that Ozuna finds that elusive consistency, but until we see it, it's tough to buy him as a .900+ OPS guy.

Michael Brantley (OF-CLE, 49.2%)

A former top-three MVP finisher (2014), a shoulder injury limited Brantley to 11 games last year, but it appears the shoulder is fine now given his .300/.371/.538 slash with five homers and an encouraging three stolen bases. Even in his elite 2014 season, Brantley's hard hit rate was still "just" 33.8%, so he's certainly seeing the ball well. What's interesting is that his approach at the plate appears to have changed, as his 21.3% K% compares less than favorably to his marks in his last three full seasons (2013-2015): 11%, 8.3%, 8.6%. Sacrificing some batting average for power by looking to hit the ball harder and farther isn't necessarily a bad thing, and a 21.3% K% isn't awful by any means. Brantley's ISO (.238) is by far a career high, and combined with 15 or so stolen bases, Brantley is a lock to vastly exceed his 212 ADP with the huge caveat that he remains healthy. I think he's a top-20 or so player in the league right now.

Mitch Moreland (1B-BOS, 48.5%)

An elite hard hit rate has resulted in just two home runs, but also a whopping league-leading 12 doubles for Moreland, who is batting .264/.356/.462. Given a full season in Fenway Park in that lineup, Moreland should be a lock for 20 home runs, and after hitting just .233 last year, Moreland is hitting the ball hard and his 11.5% BB% and reasonable 22.1% K% should allow him to hit at least .260, if not .270, a number that he's eclipsed twice in his career. Despite being just 3-for-13 versus LHP, Moreland hit them to the tune of .277/.320/.479 last year, so he's an everyday possibility given the Red Sox's other option to play versus southpaws is Chris Young, who is batting just .236/.333/.273.

David Peralta (OF-ARI, 43.2%)

Peralta doesn't get the attention that some of his teammates do, but he's well on his way to duplicating his strong 2015 season (517 PA, .312/.371/.522). The unsung Peralta is hitting .326/.382/.511 with three homers and three steals in 23 games. He's oddly sitting on occasion versus RHP with Chris Owing shifting to RF and Nick Ahmed playing short. Still, he's on pace for well over 500 at-bats despite being just 4-for-18 versus LHP against whom he's struggled throughout his career. Peralta is a legitimate threat to bat .300 with 20 homers and 15 steals, especially with that hard hit rate.

Justin Smoak (1B-TOR, 42.9%)

.272/.302/.494 isn't great for a first baseman, but it's still a step forward for the oft-maligned Smoak. I'm not sure I put a lot of stock in this, but Smoak said this week that he's studying more video and focusing on making better contact this season. He had a hard hit rate of 39% last year, so this isn't something too crazy from him. What's different is that he's reversed a soaring strikeout rate, dropping from last year's 32.8% to 22.1% this season. His BB% has also declined unfortunately, checking in at just 4.7% versus a 10.5% career mark. Smoak is swinging at a rather high 32.3% of pitches outside the strike zone, which is the highest mark of his career. If he can correct that and keep hitting the ball hard, maybe he's a .280/.330/.500 hitter the rest of the way.

Ryan Zimmerman (1B-WAS, 42%)

No, I don't think he will be the first person since Ted Williams to hit .400 nor will he win the Triple Crown, but wow, what a start for Zimmerman. Zimmerman has had a 40-plus-percent hard hit rate three times in his career, but not since 2013. That and a .456 BABIP have resulted in a ridiculous .420/.458/.886 slash line through April, making Zimmerman and Eric Thames two of fantasy baseball's bigger bargains. Is this sustainable? Given he's said his shoulder feels better than ever, I don't see why not. If Zimmerman can hit .280 the rest of the way (his career average) and average four homers and 15 RBI per month, that leaves him at right around .318-31-104 for the season, and that would be a career year. I think those numbers are conservative, with the big caveat being "if he can stay healthy" — a familiar refrain for a guy who averaged 90 games a season from 2014-2016.

High swinging strike rate, poor ERA

This is the seventh consecutive season in which the collective swinging strike rate for pitchers has increased. Added velocity and more of an all-or-nothing approach from hitters are combining to lead to this outcome, and this year, league average swinging strike rate sits at 10.3%. In this section, I'll look at 10 guys who are sitting above league average but aren't necessarily seeing the results in their other measurements such as ERA and WHIP. Missing bats is one of three skills we look for in a pitcher, with control and command being the other two. The theory here is that a high swinging strike rate and high ERA could indicate a buy low opportunity.

Swinging strike rate and ERA in parentheses

Danny Salazar, CLE (15.9%, 4.34)

Salazar has made a conscious effort to use his changeup more this year and it's fooling hitters, helping Salazar reach an elite-level K/9 of 13.0. He's throwing the pitch 33.1% of the time versus 18.8% last year, using his fastball and slider less, and the curve and change more. What's causing the relatively high ERA is that for the second consecutive year, his walk rate is elevated over 4 after being 2.9 or less in 2015 and 2014. His HR/9 is a little high at 0.93, but that's right about where we'd expect him to slot given past performance. The key will be to get that walk rate down, and I think as he continues to get comfortable with his new pitch mix, that will happen. Assuming his .366 BABIP trends down as well, I can see an ERA in the low-3s the rest of the way along with another 180 strikeouts on top of the 42 he has in his first five starts.

Carlos Martinez, STL (12.7%, 4.71)

Like the rest of the free world, I rejoice in Martinez getting rid of his ridiculous silver hair extensions. I don't recall seeing them on Opening Day when he held the Cubs scoreless over 7.1 innings while striking out 10. I do know that in his last four starts, Martinez has a 6.33 ERA, four homers allowed, and 14 walks in 21.1 innings. All joking aside, Martinez's stuff remains elite, as evidenced by a 12.2 K/9. He just needs to limit the home runs and cut down on his 4.4 BB/9, which I expect he can. He's also sporting a career-worst 46.7% GB% (54.1% career), so he has some adjustments to make.

Lance McCullers, HOU (13%, 4.08)

McCullers has fanned 10 batters twice in six starts, but he's also allowed five runs twice, so the consistency isn't quite there. A huge plus is his cutting his BB/9 from 5.0 to 2.8 year over year, but the home run rate has offset that by spiking from 0.56 per nine to 1.27. I'm not too worried about the early home runs, as his 57.5% GB% is elite, and it's highly likely that his 25% HR/FB rate will begin to trend toward the league average that sits at 12.8% this season to date. Shoulder and elbow issues limited McCullers to 14 big league starts last year, but this is a guy with legitimate Cy Young stuff if he can avoid the DL.

Tyler Anderson, COL (12.1%, 7.71)

Well here's an odd one. A 6-foot-3 lefty with decent stuff missing bats and carrying a 7.71 ERA. His 7.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 are average at best, but it's pretty easy to see where the issue is: nine homers in 30.1 innings, including at least one in all six starts. Given that seven of the nine have come on the road, this isn't a "Coors thing". The league average GB% is 44.4% and Anderson sits at 37.5%, so he's a flyball pitcher in Coors Field who also gets to pitch in Arizona, where he allowed three homers in his last start. Unless there's a change in approach (keep the ball down!) or a new pitch coming, he's a tough guy to own despite the solid swinging strike rate.

JC Ramirez, LAA (12.2%, 4.23)

In his four starts covering 22.2 innings, Ramirez has 28 strikeouts to seven walks and for the year is averaging 95.8 mph with a 10.1 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. I'm not liking his 37.7% GB%, as that will make it tough for him to maintain his current 0.93 HR/9, but he's missing bats and his control has been pretty good. He's added a curveball this year which ranks above average and is mixing in far more two-seam fastballs. When a guy completely revamps his pitch mix to this extent, I'm far more likely to weigh current performance well above past performance, so I do think there's something here for a team desperate for good news in their starting staff given the injuries to Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs.

Rick Porcello, BOS (11.3%, 4.46)

Porcello has already notched as many losses (four) this year as he did in his entire Cy Young campaign last season. There are some encouraging signs, however, as his 9.6 K/9 would easily eclipse his previous career high of 7.8 and his BB/9 remains solid at 2.2, though last year's was an elite 1.3. Porcello has been bitten by the long ball to the tune of a 1.7 HR/9, and mixing in a BABIP that's 70 points higher than last year's .279, you can understand the slow start. Porcello should show better results going forward as his BABIP normalizes and the home runs rate drops to his career 0.99 level. At the very least, the strikeout rate is highly encouraging.

Jeff Samardzija, SF (10.8%, 6.32)

Like Porcello above, Samardzija's strikeouts, walks, and home runs are up over last year and the net result is an 0-4 record with a 6.32 ERA headed into Tuesday's start against the Dodgers. Samardzija has already pitched in Arizona and Colorado and at home against those same two teams. The 1.7 HR/9 will dip and given his velocity remains stable, Samardzija should continue to be the same guy he's always been: ERA in the low 4s, 160 K's and double-digit wins.

Shawn Kelley, WAS (16.5%, 5.40)

Kelley is still the team's primary closer, but he's probably on thin ice at this point given he's surrendered five homers in 10 innings and has a 5.40 ERA. Kelley sports a solid 13:3 K:BB and has good stuff, but he also has a 1.3 career HR/9. The Nationals' bullpen has been a disaster so far with Koda Glover on the DL, Blake Treinen sporting a 9.00 ERA, and Joe Blanton being even worse. Kelley hasn't been great by any means, but he's by far the best option, at least until the Nationals make a deal.

Hector Neris, PHI (15%, 4.97)

Now best-known in my house as the guy who gave up three home runs in a row to "my" Dodgers, Neris saw his ERA jump from 2.19 to 4.97 in one fell swoop. He's still a guy with a career 10.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9, but those weren't the first home runs he's given up, as his career HR/9 sits at 1.4. Neris has now allowed seven runs in his last 4.1 innings, opening the door back up for Joaquin Benoit should Neris' struggles last much longer. I'm still pretty optimistic on Neris long-term, but the bumps in the road could easily continue.

Kenta Maeda, LAD (14.3%, 6.58)

Maeda was in danger of losing his rotation spot with an 8.05 ERA through four starts. Like many guys on this list, Maeda has put up a strong strikeout rate (9.4 K/9), solid walk rate (2.1 BB/9), and a LOT of home runs (2.4 HR/9). I've watched each of his five starts, and his stuff is at least as good as last year, but the location hasn't always been there. I think he can turn it around and give the Dodgers a pretty good right-handed option in a lefty-heavy rotation.