Regan's Rumblings: Hot and Cold

In this week's rumblings, I will take a look at a couple (or more) guys at each position who are off to either hot or cold starts. For the most part, I'm not going to worry about established guys like Miguel Cabrera batting .125, but for guys who were on the fringe to begin with, should we be worried this early in the season? In some cases, probably. Similarly, we'll look at guys off to hot starts and dig into the numbers to see if we should be buyers or sellers.

Catcher

The Good – Sandy Leon, BOS

I ended up with Leon in our staff league as my #2 catcher for a reasonable $6, though it was hard to get too excited about it. Leon hit a shocking .310/.369/.476 in his first taste of extended playing time last year at age 27, but he also hit .213 in September, and before his mid-season promotion was batting .243/.315/.339 for Triple-A Pawtucket. I didn't expect anything close to 2016, but so far so good as he's batting .368 with a home run and a couple of doubles through Monday. I'd honestly be happy with .260 and 10 home runs, but maybe he exceeds that a bit.

The Bad – Austin Hedges, SD

Hedges hit .310 this spring and is coming off a stellar 2016 in Triple-A in which he batted .326/.353/.597, so I bought in with multiple shares. Naturally he's off to an 0-for-19 start and for his big league career, Hedges is now batting at a rate that many pitchers would be ashamed of - .144/.198/.211 in 201 plate appearances. Maybe it's time to just conclude that he can't hit big league pitching. I'm giving him another couple weeks, but my optimism just isn't there. At least he's "only" fanned in 26.1% of his PA's.

First Base

The Good – Ryan Zimmermann, WAS

Coming off a .218/.272/.370 season, I ended up with zero shares of Zimmerman, though I was poised to pull the trigger in one very deep league before someone grabbed him ahead of me. So of course he's batting .400/.444/.840 with three home runs through seven games. Zimmerman last played more than 115 games in the 2013 season, the same year in which he last hit 20+ home runs. We heard report that Zimmerman re-tooled his swing this spring to add loft, and though I'm always skeptical of those sorts of stories regarding aging veterans, the early returns are good. If Zimmerman can somehow stay healthy, he's in line to provide positive value, particularly given his 389 ADP.

The Bad – Tommy Joseph, PHI

I'm not going to worry about Miguel Cabrera and Anthony Rizzo. Those guys will hit. Fringe guys like Joseph are another question. Joseph took over for Ryan Howard last year and hit 21 home runs while batting .257 in 107 games and heads into this season as the everyday first baseman. Off to a 2-for-20 start, Joseph could become vulnerable to the short side of a platoon if he doesn't pick things up. The right-handed hitter posted a .912 OPS versus southpaws last year and .774 vs. RHP. Stassi is off to a 1-for-8 start himself, but he did homer Monday and has drawn three walks. At some point (now?), he could be worth a speculative pickup. Stassi showed excellent plate discipline last season in Triple-A with a 13.6% BB% and 17.2% K%.

Second Base

The Good – Brandon Drury, ARI

Drury broke out with a .282-16-53 season a year ago and hit .339 this spring, so he was on many "sleeper" lists this spring. Given he logged just 16 games at second last season, Drury may not qualify there just yet (OF/3B only in many leagues), but he'll get there later this month. Drury is off to a nice .417 start through seven games, though just two of his 10 hits have gone for extra bases (no home runs). Drury isn't going to be a fantasy star given he doesn't run much at all, but .208 with 20 homers from a second baseman has a fair share of fantasy value.

The Bad – Devon Travis, TOR

Shoulder issues have limited Travis to a total of 163 MLB games over the last two seasons, so health will be his big focus this season. Travis is off to a 3-for-23 start with just one walk, but Travis brought a .302 average into this season, and that's enough of a sample size to know that he can hit for average. Travis offers 15-homer upside with a small handful of steals, but you're probably not counting on him running much. I'm not worried at all, particularly given Plan B is Darwin Barney.

Shortstop

The Good – Chris Owings, ARI

Owings won the starting shortstop gig over Nick Ahmed with a .345/.377/.534 spring, and he's kept up the momentum this month. Owings is off a .345/.387/.517 start with one home run, but what's really stood out is that he's already swiped four bases. Given that we projected him for 21, Owings has a chance to greatly outperform expectations. Even with the hot start, he's still just a career .256/.296/.379 hitter in 1,442 plate appearances, so temper expectations. His minor league performance has been up and down as well, and Owings has posted a mediocre 4.9% career BB%, so from a fantasy perspective, he's more valuable in non-OBP formats. Breakout potential: Low.

The Bad – Trevor Story, COL

Story burst upon the scene at this time last year, bashing six home runs in the first four games of 2016 in route to hitting 27 in 372 at-bats before a season-ending thumb injury on July 31. Story hit .238 this spring with 22 strikeouts in 63 at-bats, but the power continued to be there, as of his 15 hits, a whopping 12 (five HR) went for extra bases. This month has been a bit of a different story, as Story is off to a .148/.281/.259 start with no home runs through 32 plate appearances. So what do we know? Safe to say that we know the 30-homer power is there. Second, it's as safe to conclude that there is quite a bit of batting average downside with Story. Last year for example, Story fanned in 31.3% of his PA's (37.5% this year). Story also struck out 26.8% of the time in the minors, so this is nothing new. Story is going to have some very hot and very cold periods. Bench him and he may very well hit a couple home runs.

Third Base

The Good – Miguel Sano, MIN

Sano is almost the third base version of Story, 30-35 homer power but a batting average with the downside of .220 with 200 strikeouts. Sano batted .236/.319/.462 last year with 25 homers in 495 at-bats and is off to a .350/.458/.850 start this year. Sano has struck out in 35.6% of his career PA's and has improved on that a little so far this season – 29.2%. He was also about a 26% person in the minors, so he's never going to be a contact hitter, but with experience, perhaps he can be consistently in the 27% or so range, a number that would allow him to perhaps top out as a .270 hitter. So basically the early returns are positive, but don't expect him to hit more than .260 the rest of the way. That said, if you were to ask me to make a list of guys with 40-homer upside who have yet to hit 40 home runs, Sano is on that list.

The Bad – Anthony Rendon, WAS

Rendon has now stayed healthy in two of his last three full seasons, but he's yet to have the type of breakout season that I think a top six overall draft pick is capable of. His career slash sits at .272/.343/.428, and we can pretty much mark him down for .270 with 20 homers, but Rendon's bat was once thought of as a .300+ 30-100 type of threat. So far in 2017 he's off to a 3-for-25 start that includes eight strikeouts, and if you're in a 12-team mixed league and are tired of waiting for that breakout, I don't blame you. He does have a 9.1% career BB% and a similarly-solid 17.5% K%, so the breakout potential is still there. I'm just not sure it's going to happen this year.

Outfield

The Good – Nomar Mazara, TEX; Steven Souza Jr., TB; Adam Eaton, WAS

As a 21-year-old with just 23 games at the Triple-A level to his name, Mazara had by all accounts a strong rookie season, batting .266/.320/.419 with 20 home runs in 568 PA's. Excellent for his age, but just a starting point for what has the potential to be an All-Star caliber career. Mazara may be a couple of years from reaching that plateau, but given that he's hitting .417/.462/.750 so far this year, maybe that timetable gets accelerated. One thing to watch would be his BB%, which sat at a so-so 6.9% last year and this year with just one walk, is even lower at 3.8%.

Souza hasn't provided much of a return on the Wil Myers trade, but so far so good this year, as he's off to a .370/.485/.593 start that includes an interesting 3:6 K:BB. Considering that Souza's career K% sits at a very high 32.8%, if he can sustain a K% that's even in the 25% range, that's a huge step forward for the 28-year-old. Souza has shown the ability to hit .300+ if you look at his recent minor league numbers, and he should draw a fair share of walks and hit in the range of 20 home runs.

The Nationals took a bit of heat for the Eaton trade, as Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez are arms with upside. That said, I never saw how this was a bad deal for the Nationals. They get five years of team control of Eaton at a below market total of $38.4 million, this for a guy who put up a 6.0 fWAR in 2016. Eaton found his 12-15 HR power in 2015, and his OBPs the last three years have been remarkably consistent at .362, .361, and .362. it appears Dusty Baker prefers him second in the order between Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, so he should see plenty of good pitches and score a ton of runs. Off to a .333/.485/.583 start, I could see him having a career year in the range of .300/.380/.460.

The Bad – Byron Buxton, MIN; Carlos Gomez, TEX; Andrew Benintendi, BOS

If Buxton has another disappointing year in 2017, will he be a post-post-hype sleeper in 2018? We keep thinking that at some point, things are going to click and the former #2 overall pick is going to morph into the superstar the scouting community assured us he'd be. But….what if he never does? Off to a 2-for-26 start, Buxton is now a career .212/.265/.383 hitter in 496 MLB plate appearances. That's a pretty good sample size, but it's still probably a bit early to write him off. Strikeouts have been a huge issue (35.5% career K%, 51.9% this year). On the plus side, he has shown good power in his young career (.170 ISO) and the speed and defense are there, but it just seems he was promoted a bit early and needs further minor league seasoning.

Gomez hasn't been a legitimate fantasy force since the 2014 season, but he took a step toward resurrecting his career upon being released by the Astros last year. After signing with the Rangers, Gomez hit .284/.362/.543 with eight home runs over the final six weeks of the regular season. He's off to a .136 start in 22 at-bats this year, though a 6:3 K:BB is reasonable, as both his 11.1% BB% and 22.2% K% are improvements over his career numbers. Given how good he was from 2013-2014 and the latter part of 2016, I'm inclined to target Gomez in multiple leagues, not drop him.

Starting Pitcher

The Good – Michael Pineda, NYY: Chris Devenski, HOU; Lance McCullers Jr., HOU

Pineda was knocked around a bit in his first start, but he now has a 17:0 K:BB in 11.1 innings through two outings. So with a 3.97 ERA, basically nothing has changed. He can rack up the strikeouts, but avoiding giving up the big hit or the big inning on a consistent basis just isn't there. If he can stay healthy, 200+ strikeouts look to be a lock, but whether that comes with a 4.25 ERA or 3.25 mark is nearly impossible to predict.

Devenski is a really interesting pitcher. After spending most of the 2016 season in a long relief role, he's tossed a pair of four-inning relief appearances this year, notching a 14:1 K:BB with just one earned run allowed. Devinski has four pitches that grade as above average, with his changeup being his best pitch and the fourth best change in the game according to FanGraphs. It's also a pitch he threw 31.4% of the time, with that mark ranking second in the game. That's a starter's arsenal, but he's being utilized uniquely and effectively, so I'm not sure his role will change any time soon unless perhaps a guy like Mike Fiers implodes or Lance McCullers gets hurt again. Either way, Devinski has a lot of value in his current role for the strikeouts, solid ratios, and he'll probably pick up a win here and there.

McCullers is off to a nice start with a 2.77 ERA and 17:2 K:BB in 13 innings. The key metric to watch with McCullers is his BB/K, a number that sat at a bloated 5.0 last year but is 1.4 after two starts this season. The 23-year-old has top of the rotation upside, but there's still a fair amount of risk considering he's been limited by arm injuries in each of the last two seasons. I'd probably consider him a top 30 or so starter now, but to make that next step, we need to see extended good health.

The Bad – Zach Davies, MIL; Sean Manaea, OAK; Gerrit Cole, PIT

Back-to-back poor outings leave Davies with a 10.61 ERA and 7:6 K:BB in 9.1 innings. Given that his fastball averages a few ticks south of 90 mph, Davies is going to need excellent control and command to be successful, but that's not happened for him so far this year. I think he'll ultimately be a solid No. 5 starter, but unless he somehow develops Greg Maddux level command, he's going to have some runs like this.

Manaea has had an interesting start to the season, posting a 14:4 K:BB and 1.06 WHIP in 11.1 innings, but also carrying a 7.15 ERA. Want another elite number? How about a whopping 19.1% swinging strike rate, a number that is second in all of baseball to Chris Devinski and is well above the 10.5% league average. The A's have some pretty good young pitching, with Manaea my favorite of the bunch despite the bloated ERA.

Relief Pitcher

The Good – Greg Holland, COL; Addison Reed, NYM; Cam Bedrosian, LAA

Holland has yet to allow a hit in four innings and is the first to four saves. He also has a 6:1 K:BB, so the Rockies have to be ecstatic. Holland is averaging 93.8 mph with his fastball, which is down over two mph from his peak years, but slightly up over what he was clocking in at in 2015. Holland may never be the 1.21 ERA guy again, but if he can continue to keep the ball down (3.0 GB/FB), he'll be just fine.

The Mets will get Jeurys Familia back on April 20, so Reed's time is probably limited, but is Familia a lock to get his old job back? The 94 saves he recorded from 2015-2016 say yes, but Reed has allowed just one run in four innings with a 6:1 K:BB while recording a pair of saves. Reed will probably shift to the eighth inning late this month, but Reed is doing what he can to make his case.

The Bad – Shawn Kelly, WAS; Luke Gregerson, HOU; Sam Dyson, TEX

Kelley has had a rough start to his 2017, first losing the closer battle to Blake Treinan and now allowing runs in each of his first three appearances. At least he has five strikeouts in three innings, but he's also allowed three home runs, a year after posting a high 1.4 HR/9. Kelley is coming off back-to-back solid seasons, so this may just be a blip, but he's clearly nowhere near the closer role.

Gregerson had three scoreless appearances before an ugly six-run outing Friday. This firmly plants him behind both closer Ken Giles and setup guy Will Harris, though that was pretty much the pecking order anyway.

Dyson tossed a scoreless inning in his last outing after allowing eight runs in an inning over two appearances to open the season. He still walked a batter, but hey, at least his ERA was cut in half to 36.00. Dyson received a vote of confidence from manager Jeff Banister after his first two appearances, so he's safe for now, but he should continue to get plenty of rope after his excellent past two seasons.