This article is part of our Painting the Black series.
PAINTING THE BLACK: Predicting a World Series winner
Everybody loves to think they can "predict" how a game will end. Who will win it all? Maybe more than anything, WHY it happened.
Regardless of how some pundits believe things look on paper, sometimes "momentum" can't always be the sole argument for why a team ends up winning a World Series championship. Yes, it's obviously a part of how the four representatives got to the League Championship Series and made their way to that point in the season. However, looking a bit deeper, you may be able to gain an advantage on accurately predicting the Major League Baseball champion with just a tad bit of historical perspective on your side.
Consider these facts:
Last 5 World Series Winners that had hitter who led postseason in AVG w/ min 45 ABs:
2013: Boston Red Sox (David Ortiz - .353)
2012: San Francisco Giants (Pablo Sandoval - .364)
2011: St. Louis Cardinals (David Freese - .397)
2010: San Francisco Giants (NA, Mitch Moreland (TEX) .348)
2009: New York Yankees (Alex Rodriguez - .365)
Current 2014 postseason leader: (min 30 ABs)
Eric Hosmer (KC) - .448
Last 5 World Series Winners that had their league's hitter win Batting Title:
2013: BOS (AL) - Miguel Cabrera (DET), .338
2012: SF (NL) - Buster Posey (SF), .336
2011: STL (NL) - N/A (Miguel Cabrera, DET, .344)
2010: SF (NL) - N/A (Josh Hamilton, TEX, .359)
2009: NYY (AL) - Joe Mauer (MIN), .365
2014 Batting Title winner:
AL - Jose Altuve (HOU), .341
Last 5 World Series Winners that had MLB-best regular season record in their league:
2013: Boston Red Sox - N/A (T-1st in MLB, 97-65)
2012: San Francisco Giants (3rd in NL, 94-68)
2011: St. Louis Cardinals (4th in NL, 90-72)
2010: San Francisco Giants (2nd in NL, 92-70)
2009: New York Yankees - N/A (1st in MLB, 103-59)
2014 Best MLB Record:
AL - LA Angels (98-64)
Some other interesting twists to consider:
- since the inception of the Wild Card in 1995, 10 Wild Card teams have made the World Series; 5 have won (3 NL, 2 AL)
- since the inception of the Wild Card in '95, the American League leads the National League in World Series Champions 10-9
Postseasons certainly are defined by "pitching and defense" winning championships. Being able to win on the road and possibly "steal" a victory to get the series advantage back to your home ballpark is also key. And, the long-lost aspect of any team's payroll (the bullpen) becomes arguably the most valuable asset a playoff team holds. Here's an in-depth look at the regular season numbers for each LCS participant:
Pitching records on the Road:
KC: 47-34, 3.10 team ERA, .237 AAG
BAL: 46-35, 3.65 team ERA, .249 AAG
SF: 43-38, 3.71 team ERA, .251 AAG
STL: 39-42, 3.60 team ERA, .249 AAG
Starting Pitching regular season stats:
KC: 986.2 IP, 96 HR, 722 K/270 BB, .257 AAG
SF: 977.0 IP, 98 HR, 824 K/258 BB, .252 AAG
STL: 969.1 IP, 82 HR, 794 K/310 BB, .243 AAG
BAL: 953.2 IP, 109 HR, 732 K/314 BB, .251 AAG
Critical bullpen stats:
Inherited Runners Scored %:
4th - STL - 22.7% (52/229)
7th - BAL - 24.8% (59/238)
16th - SF - 29.6% (64/216)
19th - KC - 29.9% (52/174)
Bullpen Innings Thrown:
KC: 464.0 IP, 32 HR, 446 K/170 BB, .235 AAG
SF: 472.0 IP, 35 HR, 387 K/131 BB, .217 AAG
STL: 479.1 IP, 41 HR, 427 K/160 BB, .240 AAG
BAL: 507.2 IP, 42 HR, 442 K/158 BB, .229 AAG
What does it all boil down to? If history repeats itself, and it usually does, all signs point to the Kansas City Royals defeating the San Francisco Giants, becoming the 2014 World Series Champions.
Delving into the present day postseason numbers, the numbers don't lie:
Pitching on the Road:
KC: 4-0, 2.85 ERA, .220 AAG
SF: 4-1, 1.36 ERA, .138 AAG
BAL: 1-2, 1.44 ERA, .182 AAG
STL: 1-4, 5.95 ERA, .284 AAG
Starting Pitching stats:
SF: 3-1, 2.40 ERA, 5 HR, 51 K/15 BB, .207 AAG
KC: 2-0, 3.80 ERA, 7 HR, 33 K/15 BB, .232 AAG
STL: 1-1, 4.32 ERA, 2 HR, 43 K/16 BB, .282 AAG
BAL: 2-2, 4.93 ERA, 6 HR, 29 K/10 BB, .282 AAG
Critical bullpen stats:
Inherited Runners Scored %:
KC - 7 ER in 35 IP
SF - 7 ER in 35.1 IP
BAL - 8 ER in 27.1 IP
STL - 13 ER in 28.1 IP
Bullpen Innings Thrown:
SF: 35.1 IP, 1.78 ERA, 7 HR, 30 K/11 BB, .164 AAG
KC: 35 IP, 1.80 ERA, 1 HR, 36 K/13 BB, .179 AAG
STL: 28.1 IP, 4.13 ERA, 4 HR, 20 K/15 BB, .241 AAG
BAL: 27.1 IP, 2.63 ERA, 3 HR, 25 K/12 BB, .209 AAG
Watching the entire postseason from the Wild Card playoffs until now, and doing this historical research, it's amazing to me how dead-on the results are in real life. As a former player, we tend to try and keep the game as simple as possible in October. There's enough speculation and distraction in the day-to-day media to keep us busy. Nonetheless, being on the outside looking in now, the numbers certainly bear out how this postseason should be playing out. Kansas City fans - time to Take The Crown!
