This article is part of our Pitching 3D series.
There have been a slew of articles recently that were devoted to the curious case of Trevor Story and what he might be worth on the fantasy trade market. The problem is that it's all speculation, and the honest answer is that he's worth whatever someone is willing to pay. All it takes is one – it's a premise that Scott Boras has used to get his clients hundreds of millions of dollars, and it fuels the drive of that one guy in your league who won't stop offering his backup catcher for a mid-rotation arm.
Pitchers present a different type of opportunity when it comes to trades, as their value boils down to such a small sample of games and the opponents in those games can be all over the map. Perhaps a borderline pitcher is about to face a run of soft lineups, or maybe he's got a plate full of intimidating rosters in his immediate future, but in either case we might see the value of a number of pitchers change drastically over the next few weeks, and the list of opponents on tap can have a heavy impact on the pitcher's performance.
Players fall into categories this early in the season, and the ones that draw attention are those that defy expectation. There are aces who have stumbled out of the gate and rookies who have hit the ground running, yet in April their fortunes can change just that quickly, and often the instigator of "luck"
There have been a slew of articles recently that were devoted to the curious case of Trevor Story and what he might be worth on the fantasy trade market. The problem is that it's all speculation, and the honest answer is that he's worth whatever someone is willing to pay. All it takes is one – it's a premise that Scott Boras has used to get his clients hundreds of millions of dollars, and it fuels the drive of that one guy in your league who won't stop offering his backup catcher for a mid-rotation arm.
Pitchers present a different type of opportunity when it comes to trades, as their value boils down to such a small sample of games and the opponents in those games can be all over the map. Perhaps a borderline pitcher is about to face a run of soft lineups, or maybe he's got a plate full of intimidating rosters in his immediate future, but in either case we might see the value of a number of pitchers change drastically over the next few weeks, and the list of opponents on tap can have a heavy impact on the pitcher's performance.
Players fall into categories this early in the season, and the ones that draw attention are those that defy expectation. There are aces who have stumbled out of the gate and rookies who have hit the ground running, yet in April their fortunes can change just that quickly, and often the instigator of "luck" is directly related to the context of opponents that a pitcher has in his sights.
Of the pitchers that started the season hot, some will stay on track while others will fall off course, and determining who is going to go which direction can make or break a fantasy season. The flip side is also true, with pitchers coming off rough starts who could rebound while others watch their season stats go down in flames. Just knowing the next few opponents can influence a pitcher's trade value, and looking ahead on a pitcher's schedule can play a big role in deciding when to move or when to target a particular arm.
Let's look ahead for a half-dozen pitchers whose value has been on the move in the first two weeks of the season.
We're Going Streaking
Noah Syndergaard
Yeah, we know he's good, but his fantasy value is about to shoot through the roof. It starts with the stuff, as the hardest-throwing starting pitcher of last season has actually added a tick to his fastball in his first couple turns of 2016, and the fact that pitchers tend to throw harder as they progress through the first few months paints a frightening picture for NL batters (his slider has been recorded going as high as 95 mph). He struck out nine Royals in 6.0 innings in his first turn, a feat that is even more impressive than it looks on its surface because the Royals have been the game's hardest lineup to strikeout in each of the last two seasons, and they had just seen Thor in the previous World Series, so the novelty had at least worn off somewhat.
After dominating the Marlins in his second start of the season – and besting Jose Fernandez in the process - Syndergaard has a 0.69 ERA and 21 strikeouts through his first 13.0 innings, and he now gets to travel to Philadelphia and then Atlanta to show off his elite-level stuff to the weakest lineups in the division. Part of the allure of Mets pitchers is that they get to face these two teams several times throughout the year, and Syndergaard is about to enjoy the easiest opponents at a time when it looks like he could dominate just about any club. He'll face the Giants at home after the start against the Braves and then gets to travel to San Diego where he might have an outside chance at a 20-strikeout game.
The Calm Before the Storm
Kenta Maeda
Owner of a pristine 0.00 ERA after two turns, Maeda is garnering attention in LA for all the right reasons following an offseason in which his unique contract may have overshadowed his abilities on the field. The final lines in the box score for the two games were eerily similar, with each including 6.0 innings of shutout baseball, with five hits allowed and four strikeouts, with only a walk and hit batsman in the second outing to distinguish the two. His first start was in San Diego against the punchless Padres, a gimme start that gave Maeda an easy acclimation to the majors. His second start was against the Diamondbacks, who lost their second-best player for the season due to injury, and he has yet to be truly tested. That will change quickly.
Maeda faces the Giants in his next start, a team whose offense is not too intimidating on paper but has scored the second-most runs in baseball this season, albeit with a few games in Colorado to pad the stats. Maeda will get to see for himself in his following start, in which he gets to experience high-altitude baseball in Denver against the Rockies. Something tells me that he won't come home from the mountains with the 0.00 ERA intact.
The Bust Stops Here
Adam Wainwright
It's been a bumpy ride out of the gate for Wainwright. He carries a 6.55 ERA into Saturday's start with a horrible 5:8 K:BB ratio in 11.0 innings, and the worse of his two starts was against the humble offense of the Atlanta Braves. He's averaging just a shade over 90 mph on his fastball, but Waino has never been known for his heat and is within a half-tick of his pitch-speed from 2013. His rebound will be softened by a weak slate of scheduled opponents, starting with Saturday's home game against the Reds, followed by road games at San Diego (where mediocre pitchers become stars) and Arizona (whose second-best player is out for the season), and if everything stays lined up then he'll get a home game against the Phillies. The stuff will have to improve in order for Wainwright to rediscover past levels of effectiveness, but he might be able to fake it for a little while thanks to the light offenses that are lined up in front of him.
Matt Harvey
This one might seems obvious, as Harvey is far too talented to be sitting on a mid-4's ERA and less than a strikeout every other inning, but following Saturday's outing at Cleveland he will have one of the softest schedules imaginable, such that his stat-line might start showing improvement before his stuff does. He barely misses getting to face the Phillies, but his reward will be a start at Atlanta, followed by home games against the Reds and Braves (again), before traveling to San Diego to take on the Padres in Petco. The easy advice is that this is a buy-low opportunity, but reality is that his managers won't be too eager to give Harvey up for pennies on the dollar, so in order to acquire his services a gamer will have to give up some value. The easy slate makes it easier to pry some talent away from the roster, knowing that Harvey has a buffer of weak lineups as he rounds back into form.
I've Fallen and I Can't Get Up
Chris Archer
There is little doubting Archer's raw talent, and his combination of elite velocity and a sharp-breaking slider will help to pile up the strikeouts, but he is going to have to endure a gauntlet of difficult opponents in order to do so. Currently 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA and pitching for the worst offense in the AL East, Archer faces a tall order for virtually every division game, and he has a host of them coming up. Everything is up so far this season, including walks, hits, homers and strikeouts. He is scheduled to pitch at Fenway to face the Red Sox on Wednesday, dodges a three-game set with the Yankees but is then on tap for back-to-back home games against the intimidating offenses of the Orioles and Blue Jays. He'll get a couple games respite before facing the likes of Detroit and Toronto again, and though Archer has the skill-set to beat any team at any given time, he will face an uphill battle to replicate the early-season dominance of 2015, when he had a sub-2.00 ERA into early June.
Rich Hill
The intrigue levels were raised by his quartet of 10-strikeout games for the Red Sox last September, making Hill an interesting upside play in 2016 fantasy drafts. However, a horrific spring and abbreviated start on Opening Day caused his stock to plummet, only to reignite after he pulled off another 10-K performance in his second turn, giving up one run on five hits and a walk against the Mariners. The ship may have already sailed on the opportunity to extract any value, except maybe in AL-only leagues, as Friday's start against the Royals was crucial and Hill failed to step up to the challenge. The contact-heavy World Champions provided a true test for Hill after a pair of very different starts, but he was shelled in an inefficient outing that highlighted all of the weaknesses in his game. His next two starts are at Yankee Stadium (or even worse, the next day at Toronto) and at Detroit; with the high possibility of combustion coming from Hill and the lineups he'll be facing, there's a very good chance that his numbers are unsightly 10 days from now, at which point gamers will have either cut ties or (in deep leagues) bench him until further notice.
