Oak’s Corner: Time to Drop Addison

The Week That Was

Yu Darvish has been nothing short of a mess to start the season, especially considering where he was drafted, usually near the middle to the end of the third round in 15 teamers. He has made six starts in 2018 and rewarded his fantasy owner with a lovely 6.00 ERA to go with a 1.57 Whip. The strikeouts are still there for Darvish, but he has been having a big issue with walks, already having issued 16 in 30 innings. He hasn't been hit too hard, with a 29.4 percent hard hit rate, but the 24.7 percent line drive is a concern and is the highest of his career.

I've watched all of his starts (I'm invested in him on an important team) and it seems like he's nibbling early in innings rather than trusting his stuff and then having to come in to batters with guys on base. The strikeouts still being strong gives me some hope, but even though it's just a month of data, I would change my rank on him from draft day. The team dynamic should help with getting him some wins, but even that doesn't matter when you don't get out of the fifth inning in four of your six outings. If I were drafting today, I'd take the healthy guys in his tier over him and likely drop him down a tier, at least until I see a couple of outings with some better control.

I targeted Nick Castellanos in drafts based on the step up he took in 2017, plus his multiposition eligibility, but he has had a slow start to the year with the power. Castellanos did hit his third homer on Thursday against the Royals, but he has been off his 2017 homer pace when he hit 26. It has been cold in a lot of AL Central games, which hasn't helped with pop, but I still really like Castellanos' profile. He has maintained his three percent drop in strikeout rate from 2016 to 2017, and his walk rate has touched up a tick to seven percent.

The key item in Castellanos' profile is that he has maintained his elite hard hit rate so far this season. He checked in at a 43.4 percent hard hit rate in 2017, and it has bumped up a little bit this year to 45.7 percent. It should be noted that there were some concerns last year in how that stat was computed in Comerica Field, as a number of Tigers had hard hit rates that seemed inflated, especially when you realize Castellanos' number was almost 10 percent higher at home. His hard hit rate is still really high at home this year at 48 percent, but he's still excellent on the road at 41.5 percent. His HR/FB percentage of 6.5 percent is going to bounce up, and if he can get his fly balls (currently 34.1 percent) back up to his career average of 39 percent, I can see a slew of home runs coming. He's a hard guy to trade for right now, as he's hitting .309 at a time when BA is hard to find, but I would still pay full price as I think you're likely to get 25 homers the rest of the way.

It doesn't seem that long ago that the Cub's Addison Russell was an elite prospect and the next big thing. After a 2016 season in which Russell hit 21 homers and drove in 95 runs, it seemed like the next step would be big even though the batting average was only .242. This season definitely isn't a step up, as the average remained low but the homers went down and the RBI were cut by more than half as he only played only 110 games. Through the first month of this season, Russell has done next to nothing, as he has yet to homer and has only driven in four runs in 102 plate appearances. Russell's strikeouts have dropped dramatically to 15.7 percent, but he's hitting with very little authority with a .077 ISO. After a bump up to a 32.2 percent hard hit rate in 2017, his rate is back under 30 percent this year, and there's just very little to get excited about in his profile.

The one bright spot is his 24 percent line drive, a number that has risen every year. If he can continue to hit line drives while striking out less, maybe he could see an average bump as the season goes along, but he also finds himself hitting seventh in the lineup for most games, which depresses his counting stats. At the moment it feels like Russell is rostered in fantasy leagues based on name and team value, and past prospect pedigree, but it sure seems like you can do better at your middle infield spot than a guy who's now in his fourth full season and has yet to top his rookie year average of .242.

FAAB Feelings

I won't go too deep into Walker Buehler, as he's owned in almost any deep or medium-sized league (he is owned in 97 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues, but only 41 percent of Yahoo leagues), but in case he was dropped last week when he was sent down to the minors, he deserves an aggressive bid this week. He takes over in the rotation for Hyun-Jin Ryu who had a horribly painful sounding injury (groin muscle torn from the bone? Goodness) and is projected to be out until after the All Star Break. Buehler is a highly regarded prospect with a fastball touching 98 and strikeout upside. He probably won't go deep into games, as they control his innings, but with a rotation spot now locked up for the next few months, he should certainly be owned in every league.

Mike Soroka: Soroka is a tough bid this week, and his price may depend on what the team says this weekend about their intentions with him going forward. It hasn't been announced whether he will make another start this weekend or if they are considering keeping him in the rotation long-term. Soroka, the Braves top pitching prospect, certainly made an initial case for a longer look with his first start, allowing only one run in six innings in a win against the Mets. Most impressively, the 20-year-old (yes, he was born in 1997!) walked no one in his debut while punching out five. He had an excellent campaign in Double-A in 2017, throwing 153.2 innings of 2.75 ball. The control was great at 1.99 BB/9, but his strikeout rate has been under 8.00 K/9 in both of his full seasons. So he may not be a big strikeout guy at the moment, but he sure looked like he had stuff via the eye test and knows how to pitch beyond his age. Of course, there isn't a long list of 20-year-olds who pitch effectively at the major league level, so he's going to have some hiccups.

The issue for the Braves is that they have four guys locked into the rotation at the moment (I know, Brandon McCarthy will likely get hurt at some point) and they have Anibal Sanchez nearing his return, and Luiz Gohara close to being ready in Triple-A, although after allowing six runs in his last start in only 4.1 innings, the Braves may not be in a rush to call him up. It's hard to imagine a stud prospect being blocked by Anibal Sanchez, but before going on the DL, Sanchez did have back-to-back solid starts, allowing only two earned runs in 11 innings. Sanchez clearly isn't going to block Soroka for any long period of time, but they could use him to ease off the gas a bit and let Soroka take a few more short starts at Triple-A until he is needed.

The nice thing for anyone looking to Soroka is that the Braves are currently 19-11 and in first place. The start at least has to have them thinking about contending this year. If you need pitching or maybe you got hit by the starting pitcher injuries this week, this is one of the top prospect arms likely to be available this season. I expect the bidding to be quite aggressive this week, especially in deeper leagues where solid starters are very tough to find on waivers. I'm going to watch the news closely this weekend before deciding how aggressive to be, but I'll bid in all my leagues even if it looks like he might go down because this will be your only chance to get him, and it likely won't to be a long trip to the minors.

Fernando Romero: Although with a bit less fanfare than the Soroka start, the Twins also called up one of their top pitching prospects for a start this week. Romero's debut was also really good; he tossed 5.2 scoreless innings with five strikeouts against the Blue Jays. Romero has a very live arm and averaged 96 mph on his fastball in his first start, but he did walk three batters. He impressively didn't lose velocity as the game went on, as he was clocked at 96 in the sixth inning and many of his heaters had nice movement on them, too.

Walks were the issue for Romero in Double-A in 2017. He posted a 3.24 BB/9 rate in 125 innings and struggled with walks to start this year in Triple-A with 10 walks in 21 innings. The fastball is clearly there for Romero, and while the secondary stuff may need some work, I think the command will determine how successful this first trip through the majors will be. If he can limit the walks, I think the stuff will play and he will the avoid major trouble that the walks bring. He replaced Phil Hughes, and it appears that Romero has a real chance to take this starting job and run with it. Of course, while it would be nice to watch a couple of starts first, you have to act now if you want any chance at him, as he will be picked up in most leagues this weekend. I'll be bidding, as I definitely see enough upside to take a shot, but I think the better command makes me go with a higher bid on Soroka.

A Closer Look

The Astros closer situation has been an interesting, but frustrating, one for fantasy owners. Ken Giles was drafted as the full-time closer after a 34-save 2017, although he did have some struggle in the postseason. Giles finished the regular season with a 2.30 ERA and struck out 11.92 batters per nine. Manager A.J. Hinch has played with matchups so far this season with the weapons he has in the pen and used Chris Devenski a couple of times in save opportunities. As a result, Giles enters the first weekend of May with only three saves. Giles was electric Monday night, striking out the side against the Yankees. He imploded Wednesday night, allowing four runs in 0.1 innings and provided a meme-worthy moment by punching himself in the face on his way into the dugout.

Hinch has deployed Devenski as a bit of a lefty specialist (even though he's right-handed) after he held left-handers to a .110 batting average in 157 batters faced in 2017. If the matchups play out to where the other team has some nasty lefties coming up in the ninth, Devenski could steal a few more opps. However, I think Giles will be utilized in a majority of the Astro's traditional save opportunities, with Devenski coming in to get tough outs in the seventh or eighth. Owning Giles has been frustrating, but he's still a good pitcher with great stuff, and his value this moment is about as low as it will be after the loss to the Yankees. I'd certainly attempt to get him now in a trade from a frustrated owner who may sell him at a discount from draft day.

Series of the Weekend

Astros at Diamondbacks. There are some really good series this weekend, as the top four teams in the NL Central all battle each other, and the Indians head to Yankee Stadium, but I have to pick this inter-league series between two teams that each have a winning percentage over .600. It also features the only two teams in baseball with an ERA under 3.00 on the season. After winning the first of a four-game set with the Yankees on Monday, the Astros lost the final three games of the series, the final two with ninth-inning meltdowns by relievers.

Of course, the Astros are so loaded that they get to respond to a three-game losing streak by sending Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton and Justin Verlander to the mound for the three-game set in the desert. In one of the most ridiculous stats of the year, all three of these Astros starters have ERA's under 2.00 as we head into the first weekend of May. The most surprising one of the three has to be Morton, but after posting a career-high 10.00 K/9 in 2017, Morton has actually upped that once again this year with a current 11.05 K/9 rate. Morton is getting some help with a .235 BABIP and a 92.6 percent strand rate, but if he can keep up the strikeout rate to go with his always elite ground ball rate, more good days are ahead, of course with health being the main issue.

The Diamondbacks are coming off their first series loss of the year, dropping two of three to the rival Dodgers this week. They still sport the best winning percentage in the National League with a 21-10 record with a +39 run differential. The D'Backs have thrived with their pitching so far, as they currently lead the National League with a 2.90 ERA. However, their staff is about to have its depth tested with Taijuan Walker out for the year and Robbie Ray placed on the DL last weekend with an oblique injury. Arizona is calling up Kris Medlen for Friday's start even though he was struggling to start the year in Triple-A with a 6.00 ERA through four starts. On Sunday, when they face Verlander, they will send early-season surprise Matt Koch to the mound. Koch has made three starts so far this season for the D'Backs, allowing two runs or fewer in each one. The 14:7 K:BB in 19 innings gives some cause for concern, and the Astros definitely have the advantage in their series on paper, but Arizona was excellent at home last year and are already 11-5 in Chase Field this season.

The Arizona offense has been sparked by an all-world start by their center fielder, A.J. Pollock. Pollock has a three-homer game under his belt this week and already has 10 homers and eight stolen bases through his first 30 games of the season. Staying healthy has been the problem for Pollock the last two seasons, but his current speed/ power pace is certainly fun to think about. He's striking out more than usual so far at 22.7 percent, but seems to be another guy who's selling out for power, as he sports a career high 44 percent hard hit rate and has bumped his fly ball rate up to 41.7 percent. In addition to the hard hit rate, Pollock is also avoiding soft contact with an 8.3 percent soft contact rate, good for fifth best in baseball. Watching the red-hot Pollock and the rest of the Diamondbacks hitters face off against the three Astros aces should be an absolute blast this weekend.