Mound Musings: Checking in on the Bullpens – NL

Last week we took a look at some potential end game shake-ups in the American League, and this week we'll do the same for the National. However, the Tampa Bay Rays have recently put a completely new spin on bullpen roles, and I thought I should make some observations on the fantasy impact of that ongoing experiment.

The Rays are redefining bullpen strategy

I'm sure you are aware that Tampa Bay is currently deploying their pitching staff in a revolutionary new way. At least a few times a week, a relief pitcher starts the game, he pitches an inning or two and is then replaced by a starting pitcher/long reliever who pitches four or five innings (sometimes even longer if all goes well). What's the benefit? As best I can see, the biggest advantage is the potential to flip the opposing lineup. Two of the Rays' primary long men are left-handed, so starting a right-handed short starter could theoretically encourage the other manager to load his lineup with lefty batters and would perhaps make pinch-hitting more important earlier. That would help southpaws Anthony Banda, Ryan Yarbrough and Vidal Nuno. The same could happen if a lefty short starter began the game, followed by the right-handed Matt Andriese or maybe Austin Pruitt. So, from a fantasy perspective, the "starting" pitcher could start several times a week, but will not collect wins, saves, holds or quality starts – basically little or no fantasy value – while that second pitcher would often qualify for a win by completing the fifth inning. On the downside, quality starts aren't going to happen, and while the long guys could get into multiple win opportunities, each outing will be long enough to require several days rest in between, and their appearances will often be unpredictable given matchups and the score of the game early. I really don't see this becoming a widespread tactic, as it will be taxing on a pitching staff. Okay, we'll see how that evolves, but let's take a look at some closer assignments in the NL and see where they may be headed:

Here are some NL bullpen scenarios to keep an eye on:

• Philadelphia Phillies – Hector Neris opened the season as the Phillies' closer, and he hasn't officially lost the job, but the Phillies are currently working with what certainly appears to be a committee. Recently, four different relievers have recorded saves. In my mind, one of those guys stands out. While he's the least experienced of the group, Seranthony Dominguez has closer written all over him, and it may just be a matter of time while he works his way up to the top of the bullpen food chain. For the present, Neris will probably log a few more saves, while Edubray Ramos and Luis Garcia may also pop up on the scoresheet, but if all goes as planned, Dominguez is the guy to own going forward. It should be noted, all four are right-handed, so that probably won't be a significant factor.

• St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals have one of the deepest, most talented starting rotations in the game today, but their bullpen is looking like an Achilles heel. As the season got underway, they signed Greg Holland, and it looked like the end game would be in good hands after the late signee had a chance to get into game shape. In the interim, they tried a couple of set-up men, Dominic Leone and Luke Gregerson, both of whom found their way to the disabled list. Then there was former part-time closer Bud Norris. He had his ups and downs, but it was only supposed to last a couple of weeks. Holland has been a disaster. He hasn't been able to throw strikes, and when a pitch did wander over the plate, it was often crushed. Now he's on the disabled list, too. Norris is doing his best to hold down the fort. Maybe Holland's struggles were health related? They also have the flame-throwing Jordan Hicks, but his 105 mph heat can get straight, and he too loses the strike zone. He's possibly the future, but he's not ready.

• Miami Marlins – The Marlins bullpen continues to look like a three-horse race between current pseudo-closer Brad Ziegler, and two young potential closers-in-waiting, Kyle Barraclough and Drew Steckenrider, with another longshot, Tayron Guerrero lurking in the shadows. Ziegler still leads the pack despite a hideous 1.74 WHIP and 7.83 ERA. It's not a question of if he will spit the bit, but rather when. Miami would like him to show enough to generate some interest from potential trade partners, and it's hard to imagine him being in the same uniform all season. The oft-injured Barraclough and Steckenrider were noses apart early before the latter experienced a significant, albeit hopefully brief, meltdown, so Barraclough might get the first crack if Ziegler is replaced sooner rather than later. But, there may be time for Steckenrider to rally. Guerrero is unlikely to be a threat as long as one of those two stays relevant.

• Atlanta Braves – Although not to the extremes we see in Miami, the Braves have had closer Arodys Vizcaino walking the fence for quite a while. Vizcaino has a live arm, but he suffers lapses in control that make him vulnerable. On the surface, his numbers appear respectable this season, but his BABIP is low, and probably unsustainable. Couple that with a few too many walks, and a tendency to serve up homeruns, and the contending Braves have reason to keep their options open. The problem is, no one has yet stepped up to challenge for the job. It was assumed that lefty A.J. Minter might be their next closer, but despite his wicked stuff, he has even more serious issues with control. Dan Winkler has pushed himself into the picture, but he doesn't really profile as a closer. So, it's likely Vizcaino will continue in the role, barring too many meltdowns, unless Minter finds a functional release point, or the team goes shopping. However, the future might actually be in the pitching-rich organization. He still has his own control problems, and he's in the starting rotation at Double-A Mississippi, but Touki Toussaint has the stuff of which closers are made. He's probably not in the cards for 2018, but he is one to track for next year and beyond.

• San Francisco Giants – This bullpen actually looks fairly set right now, but things could potentially change. Hunter Strickland has performed well in the ninth inning. They have quality lefties in Tony Watson and Will Smith, while Cory Gearrin, Reyes Moronta and Sam Dyson handle the set-up innings from the right side. The only question mark is what role former closer Mark Melancon will fill when he returns from the disabled list, presumably in June. Melancon has a solid history of success in the closer's gig, but he has an equally prominent history of injuries. The Giants have indicated he will not resume closer duties when he comes back, instead serving in a more easily manageable set-up role – clearly an attempt to preserve his somewhat fragile arm – and that should last as long as Strickland stays healthy and effective. However, if Strickland should falter at some point, it's hard to imagine the team wouldn't turn to Melancon, especially if/when Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto are back in the rotation.
  

• Sometimes a pitcher can win me over. Initially I had only mild interest in the Dodgers' Ross Stripling, but I have watched a few innings of his last couple of starts, and he's got my attention. He has just average stuff, and won't be an ace, but he's showing confidence in the whole repertoire, and hitting his spots.

• I'm known to be very patient with pitchers who are struggling despite having the tools to be successful. That said, after watching several innings, over a handful of starts, I'm having a difficult time finding positives in Aaron Sanchez. His pitches lack movement, and everything is up and out over the plate.

• Miami's Jose Urena needs a good luck charm – along with more run support and a more effective bullpen, His numbers are pretty pedestrian, but he's pitched better than his peripherals (and his 0-7 record) would suggest. He remains just a back-of-the-rotation fantasy option, but I expect some modest improvement.

• I'm always leery of groundball pitchers because they can be vulnerable to seeing-eye singles and, worse, when sinkers don't sink, they fly – a long way. That said, I have always liked Seattle's Mike Leake. He throws quality strikes most of the time and usually gets tougher in dangerous spots.

• The Cardinals welcomed back Alex Reyes. It was initially thought he might work out of the pen for a while, but after 15 months recovering from Tommy John surgery he went right into the rotation. This guy is special, folks. If he's somehow available in your league, run, don't walk, to the waiver wire and jump in.

• A guy I have had my eye on made his 2018 A's debut a few days ago, but I didn't get to see it. Frankie Montas has some excellent tools, and if he can throw strikes, he could enjoy success at the MLB level. One run over six innings against Arizona earned him an encore against the Royals. I'll have a look.
  

The Rays dealt their closer, Alex Colome, to Seattle, which leaves saves on the table in Tampa. There really isn't an ideal candidate, especially with several of their late inning relievers now serving as starters. Jose Alvarado would appear to be their best bet, but Chaz Roe, and even "starter" Sergio Romo, could squeeze into the mix. Interestingly, in Toronto, with Roberto Osuna out indefinitely, they have used a frequently ineffective Tyler Clippard, and more recently, top setup man Ryan Tepera, while their most effective short reliever, Seung Hwan Oh, has pitched the seventh or eighth. That could change at any time. The trade rumors are already beginning to circulate in Kansas City regarding closer Kelvin Herrera. He will no doubt continue to draw inquiries, and if they feel they can get a good return, the Royals won't hesitate to peddle him despite not really having an obvious replacement. Blaine Boyer and Tim Hill might be the most likely heirs today, but I think they may want to eventually see how Josh Staumont fits. While the White Sox could be good someday, today is not that day. They want to protect the fragile arm of Nate Jones, and closing might provide him with plenty of rest between outings.

I have always loved intriguing little facts about the game and its players, so here's a morsel to gnaw on … Did you know that the average relief pitcher today – not elite relief pitchers mind you, average – is currently posting a higher K/9 than Sandy Koufax?