Mound Musings: Arms to Watch in the NL West

It was months, then weeks and now mere hours until the 2016 season gets under way. This six-part series on some key arms to watch in each of baseball's six divisions ends as the season begins. We've covered a lot of pitchers to watch, and here are a few from the National League West to add to the list. Let's get to it this week with:

Seven Arms to Watch in the NL West

Patrick Corbin (ARZ) - I've been a fan of Corbin since before he arrived in 2012, and after a delay in his progression due to Tommy John surgery that cost him all 2014 and part of last season as he got back in the saddle, it's time for a true breakout. For much of 2013 Corbin was the talk of fantasy circles, but his performance dipped late in the season, perhaps a prelude to the surgery that was to come. He owns a solid fastball that sits in the 92-93 mph range, but his strength is the ability to dot the bottom half of the strike zone with all four of his pitches. And now, for the wild-card part of his resume. Very good command, consistently down in the zone equates to his being a groundball pitcher. If he does get up, he can be homer prone. As I have mentioned, sometimes a couple of key defenders can significantly improve the outlook for a pitcher. The Diamondbacks are still experimenting with their infield, but should they decide to play Nick Ahmed at shortstop and Jean Segura at second base regularly -- creating a very beneficial infield defense -- Corbin's value could go even higher.

Johnny Cueto (SF) - To realize much value on Cueto come draft day, you need to count on your opponents dwelling somewhat on his lackluster performance with the Royals in the second half of last season. If they choose to give him a mulligan for that span, and look exclusively at the last few seasons with the Reds, he could have a top-10 pitcher price. The good part is, now back in the National League, in a pitcher-friendly park (San Francisco), he should be able to payoff even at that level. Cueto was once considered an injury risk, and he missed much of 2013 with various back and oblique issues. With mechanics tweaked to compensate, he has hurled well over 200 innings the last two seasons, so there is reason to believe that is history. If you're looking for a weakness, there aren't many. Cueto throws strikes, he has very good command of the strike zone, and he has the extremely useful ability to step up when he really needs to make a pitch. However, he pitches to contact to reduce wear and tear on his arm, so his strikeout rate is just average. I can deal with that.

Kenta Maeda (LAD) - Investing heavily in a rookie pitcher is always a bit risky, but that risk probably pales somewhat when the "rookie" has been pitching professionally, and successfully, in Japan against decent competition for five years. Some would say that experience was against roughly the equivalent of Triple-A in the United States, but in those five seasons he hasn't had a WHIP over 1.10 nor an ERA over 2.60 and hasn't pitched fewer than 176 innings. In essence, Maeda has been the best pitcher in Japan since Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka left. He isn't either of those pitchers. He doesn't have the power of Darvish, as his fastball is regularly in the low 90s, but he does have a wide assortment of breaking pitches he can throw for strikes at any time. That makes him a confident finesse pitcher. In fact, Dodgers' catcher Yasmani Grandal compared him to Zack Greinke. That's probably more than a little overstated, but he hasn't produced near the buzz of predecessors like Darvish and Tanaka, so there is a fair chance you could land a very reliable starter at a pretty reasonable price.

Rubby De La Rosa (ARZ) - For several years, scouts (including me) have been keeping an eye of De LaRosa. He has a great arm, but he lacked secondary stuff, and his command was on and off at best. He came up with the Dodgers, moved to Boston and then to Arizona, all with similar results -- inconsistency, high pitch counts, too many balls leaving the field and struggles, particularly against left-handed hitters. It was pretty much the same last year, but there were hints that he might be refining his skills a bit. He logged 188 innings, by far the most he has logged in any major league season, and he was able to get deeper into games, at least some games. For example, in 11 of his last 20 starts, De La Rosa allowed two or fewer runs. The other starts weren't especially encouraging, but over the 20 starts, he did drop his ERA from 5.84 to 4.67. He still needs to cut the home runs allowed (32 last year) and keep building on his strikeout rate (up to 7.16 per 9 last season). That will come as his secondary stuff evolves, allowing him to keep lefty swingers off balance more consistently. Don't overpay, there is still plenty of risk, but he could be getting close to arriving as a fantasy asset.

Colin Rea (SD) - San Diego is a place where it has always been a little difficult to find value pitching. Petco Park is fabled as a fantastic pitcher's paradise (rightly so), and fantasy owners often look to the Padres' pitching staff when shopping for an arm that could give them solid innings. Unfortunately, that often drives the price up enough to eliminate potential value, and recently -- especially last season -- a poor defense has negated the real performance probabilities. With this in mind, I went searching for a guy who could help at a nice price. The headliner's spot in San Diego should and does belong to Tyson Ross, but that probably leads to a full price buy on draft day. As I looked, I found there wasn't anyone with both standout upside and enough anonymity to promise a value buy, so I'll offer Rea for consideration. He has just average stuff, which limits his ceiling, but he throws it all for strikes, and keeps the ball on the ground. He fits in deeper leagues, and could be helpful if the Padres' defense improves.

Jeff Hoffman (COL) - On the flip side of that ballpark coin, we find Coors Field and the always risky Rockies' arms. Like most fantasy players I tend to avoid Colorado pitchers because they face pitching half of their games in one of the most hitter-friendly environments, but I don't always rule them out completely. It just takes a special kind of pitcher to stay on the list, and Hoffman fits. He was the centerpiece of the deal that sent Troy Tulowitzki to Toronto -- that should give you a hint at his perceived upside. He had Tommy John surgery before the 2014 draft and still warranted a ninth overall pick. He has an upper-90s fastball (97-98 mph) with hop and three other average or above offerings, so he could develop quickly. He spent last season at the Double-A level and will surely begin 2016 in the minors as he refines his command of that repertoire. He is likely to arrive in 2017 for you dynasty players. It's not often that a Rockies' pitcher comes along with the stuff to be a fantasy asset, so keep Hoffman in mind.

Zach Lee (LAD) - Here's your West Coast $1 flyer. Lee's professional career has been much like a pendulum. He started as a highly thought of first-round draft choice with a team known for quality pitching. He started reasonably well, and I liked a lot of what I saw in those early days. The pendulum swung the other way in a disappointing 2012, but then headed back to the good side in 2013. Then, in 2014, that swinging pendulum sped back to the dark side. Many removed Lee from the top prospect list after a 1.54 WHIP and a 5.38 ERA over 150 innings at Triple-A. Not to be discouraged, I kept watching and he bounced back impressively last year with a 1.11 WHIP and a 2.70 ERA at Oklahoma City. Pitchers with his pedigree can take time to fully develop, but they often do just that. When on his game, he has a full arsenal of quality pitches that aren't overpowering, but are effective when he is spotting them in the right places. He has a possible path to an opportunity with the Dodgers early this season, and he could grab that opportunity and run with it. As always there is risk, but he could surprise.

The Endgame Odyssey

Here we'll cover some notes and observations on the closer scenarios across baseball. For the last six weeks, the focus has been on the division featured in arms to watch.

If he's healthy, he closes. That's the story on the Dodgers' Kenley Jansen who is firmly established as one of the game's best. If he needs a night off, Pedro Baez and probably J.P. Howell are the most likely stand-ins. ... There's at least a little more intrigue in Colorado where the role should go to Jake McGee. The Rockies also have Jason Motte on board. Motte, however, is having shoulder issues, so bet on McGee. ... The Padres signed the sometimes capable, but always volatile Fernando Rodney -- yes, he has found another closer's gig -- so if you own him, you might want to stash the far less exciting Kevin Quackenbush. ... And, my preseason review wouldn't be complete without a mention of Brandon Morrow. Could he go back to closing to revive his career? The Diamondbacks will begin the 2016 season with Brad Ziegler closing again. He did a decent job last year, but their best option, Daniel Hudson, is waiting in the wings. They also have standout setup guy Tyler Clippard on the roster, but I believe Hudson will grab the job at some point, and it could happen fairly early in the season. ... The Giants have been biding their time without a true closer for a few seasons. Santiago Casilla will carry the load initially, but he would be better suited to a setup role, and many think Hunter Strickland could be the guy they've been waiting for.