Mound Musings: AL Central Draft Day Targets

Last week, we looked at the NL Central and for the next three weeks I'll continue to throw some names out there for your consideration, covering one division each week. When the dust settles, we should be looking at Opening Day, and hopefully have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2018 season. We're past the halfway point, so let's look at the:

American League Central

Chicago White Sox – If you thought highly of the blueprint for success implemented by the Astros a few years ago, you'll want to pay very close attention to the White Sox. They are following a similar plan. Carlos Rodon, probably the most developed starter on the roster, won't return until June and is likely to be eased back into a normal workload, but the objective isn't about winning this year. Once the hype-star of fantasy circles, Lucas Giolito struggled for a bit at the upper levels, but he appears to be ready to start fulfilling the considerable promise he displayed. Now is the time to grab him, especially in keeper leagues. Speaking of keepers, Michael Kopech is also knocking on the big club rotation door. I'm not as sure he's ready to be an impact arm just yet, but he also has top-of-the-rotation stuff. There's more on the way, too. Both Alec Hansen and Dane Dunning have excellent credentials, but they are dynasty pieces and are unlikely to see much time, if any, in Chicago this season. Until that full complement of kids arrives, there are some veteran placeholders expected to eat some innings. Guys like James Shields and Miguel Gonzalez haven't been fantasy assets in some time, and I'm doubtful that will change this year. They also have Reynaldo Lopez, plus veteran Hector Santiago and Carson Fulmer in the mix. Lopez and Santiago, and maybe even Shields, might offer marginal value in deep leagues, but the wise fantasy owner probably will be playing for the future with this young staff.

The bullpen isn't the same source of optimism. They'll likely open the season with one-time end-game ace Joakim Soria or lukewarm incumbent Juan Minaya, finishing games. I loved Soria in his prime, but injuries have taken a toll on his career. I'll give him the edge as they perhaps showcase him, but Nate Jones could also work his way into the mix if (and it's a huge if) he can get and stay healthy. If you're looking for a sleeper, his name might be Thyago Vieira, but he still has a lot to prove.

Recapping the White Sox:

The arm to own:Lucas Giolito and the other kids
He's not for me:Miguel Gonzalez
Best of the bullpen:Joakim Soria but without much enthusiasm

Cleveland Indians – Unlike the White Sox, the Indians are in win now mode. If you need a proven winner to lead your staff, over the past four seasons very few have been more reliable than Corey Kluber. He pitches every five days, gets deep into games, maintains a very handy WHIP of about 1.00 and piles up strikeouts (over 200 each of those years). He's top-of-the-rotation worthy, but his price tag will reflect that. The next three arms on the staff actually offer similar upside. Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Danny Salazar are generally capable of being fantasy assets when healthy and in sync, but health issues and/or spells of inconsistency are a part of all their resumes. Even though he's generally ranked behind Carrasco, I like Salazar's upside just a bit more, but he's also the most fragile (shoulder woes) and the most inconsistent, as he's prone to struggle with his mechanics. Bauer, too, is vulnerable to extended funks, so his net value suffers over the course of a full year despite his being capable of flashy outings at times. As you might expect, there is a drop-off following the top four arms. Josh Tomlin provides mediocre innings, so he has somehow been able to keep a rotation spot over Mike Clevinger, but Clevinger is a considerably better option.

Cody Allen returns as an adequate option as the primary closer, even though he's not the best of the bullpen. The Indians' best reliever is literally too valuable to be locked in to a finite role. That would be Andrew Miller. He could be one of the best closers in the game, but his ability to pitch multiple innings, earlier in undecided games, makes it tough for the Indians to "save" him exclusively for the ninth inning. He will still provide high level contributions for his fantasy owners in the form of occasional wins, exceptional peripherals, triple-digit strikeouts and a handful of saves – stats that probably outshine a bottom-of-the-rotation starter. Zach McAllister slots in as a stable set-up man pitching around Miller's innings, so he could be useful in leagues that count holds.

Recapping the Indians:

The arm to own:Mike Clevinger, if he sticks in the rotation
He's not for me:Josh Tomlin
Best of the bullpen:Cody Allen, but Andrew Miller is an asset, too

Detroit Tigers – I've never been a big fan of the Tigers' approach to grooming young pitching. It's basically, starve some lions, and then throw some baby Tigers in the cage with them. Occasionally one might survive, but there's an awful lot of carnage. In 2016 rookie sensation Michael Fulmer was the toast of Detroit. I think he'll again be a decent starter but he regressed somewhat last year – probably at least partially because of an elbow condition that ended up cutting his season short. If you pursue him, be careful not to overpay. I had hoped Jordan Zimmermann would bounce back from a poor 2016, however he sunk to new lows last season. His 2014 masterpiece is now a distant memory, and whether his downward spiral is a result of chronic neck and back issues or just declining skills, any possible renaissance will be a surprise. Matt Boyd, is a lefty with lefty command inconsistency, but there's a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. If you're compelled to own a Tigers' starter right now, he may be the best bet. Similarly, the once highly touted Daniel Norris potentially could be in line for better days, albeit still as more of a back-of-the-rotation arm, but he'll need to win a spot. They also added veterans Mike Fiers and Francisco Liriano. Fiers likely will be counted on to provide innings, but I wasn't excited about him when he occasionally showed some positives in Houston, and planet Detroit is on the other side of the galaxy. Buck Farmer could also be in the mix, but Franklin Perez is the cherry in the organization and he could be a fantasy asset if they are patient and actually allow him time to develop.

Last year, Shane Greene (who benefited greatly from a fulltime bullpen role) was the last man standing in the pen. He'll start the season as their everyday closer, and he'll likely be adequate. To be honest, there's not much to challenge him. Joe Jimenez is the latest edition of "Tigers' closer of the future" but he could also be the next perpetual heir-apparent, (remember Bruce Rondon?). I think he'll be better than Rondon, but that's not really a glowing endorsement. I actually think Warwick Saupold could find his way into more high-leverage innings, but the converted starter still has a lot to prove.

Recapping the Tigers:

The arm to own:Franklin Perez hopefully someday
He's not for me: Everyone else unless Fulmer comes cheap
Best of the bullpen:Shane Greene by default

Kansas City Royals – This still isn't a rotation that gets me excited. Danny Duffy is the staff leader, and he's a decent starter when he's healthy and on track, but he has had some injury issues (an oblique last year and minor elbow surgery in the offseason). He doesn't always stay as focused as I'd lik, and can get hit pretty hard. Again, not bad, just not at the level he might be. I have always liked Ian Kennedy, mostly because he tends to stay on point. However, Kennedy remains haunted by the long ball (34 last season). My concern is an uptick in velocity a couple of years ago may be costing him a bit of his pinpoint command. Next up is Jason Hammel, who just doesn't seem capable of consistent success. Like many Royals' starters, he was knocked around too often in 2017. The back of the rotation likely will be filled with the largely uninspiring – at least to me – Jake Junis, Nathan Karns, recent signee Ricky Nolasco, or maybe even Jesse Hahn if he avoids Tommy John surgery following his recent UCL strain. Junis, despite having pretty pedestrian stuff, is the best of that bunch, but the rebuilding Royals don't have many appealing arms on their depth chart.

The Kansas City bullpen isn't all that exciting either. Kelvin Herrera returns as the likely closer – at least until the team can move him. He has a big arm, and he's been on the block for a while, but his performance last year didn't do much to increase his trade value. Brandon Maurer is his primary caddy. Interestingly, he's one of those guys who does fairly well in save situations but throws batting practice in other situations. Given the lack of viable alternatives, he would likely get first crack at closing. About the only other arm of interest for me is a serious dark horse. Josh Staumont has a huge arm but lacks command and a deep repertoire. Late inning reliever could be his ticket to the show after really struggling last year.

Recapping the Royals:

The arm to own: Ian Kennedy could rebound
He's not for me:Nathan Karns
Best of the bullpen: Josh Staumont but he's a real stretch right now

Minnesota Twins – The Twins are quietly building a pretty capable pitching staff with a mix of veterans and young arms. Staff leader, Ervin Santana, (finger) won't be ready for Opening Day, but they hope to have him back shortly after. He put together a solid season in 2017, and I think we can expect similar this year. After he struggled in 2016, some fantasy owners wrote off Jose Berrios, but the shrewd ones stayed the course and reaped rewards last year. There's still growth available so he'll be on my draft consideration list. They needed another quality starter, and so they got one in Jake Odorizzi. His numbers have pretty consistently shown he can perform above expectations and he suffered through an assortment of minor injuries last year. He just needs to keep the ball in the yard to step up in 2018. Things get a little cloudier after those three. Kyle Gibson probably gets one spot. He's an adequate innings eater but unlikely to be much help to a fantasy team. There's a long list of applicants for the fifth spot including veterans Phil Hughes and Anibal Sanchez (no thanks), and a couple younger hurlers in Adalberto Mejia and Stephen Gonsalves. Mejia is more likely to open the year in the rotation, but Gonsalves is the better of the two if he develops a bit more in Triple-A. You can also add Tyler Duffey (better in the bullpen) and Trevor May (Tommy John surgery – may be back in June) to the list, but the most intriguing guy is Michael Pineda (Tommy John surgery), however, he's not expected back until September at the earliest. Keep him in mind for next season.

In recent years, the Twins pieced together a makeshift pen waiting for Glen Perkins to get healthy, but it never happened. Perkins has retired, and the team has moved on with building a better bullpen in the plans. They signed Fernando Rodney to shoot a few arrows into the Minnesota sky. I know, he's ummm, "volatile" but I love the guy. He's so good at forgetting those occasional flare-ups. They also added a solid set-up guy, and insurance policy, in Addison Reed, leaving the bridge-building to useful righties Trevor Hildenberger and Ryan Pressly, while southpaws Taylor Rogers and veteran Zach Duke provide plenty of balance. This's actually a team strength, however, that depth makes it difficult to project fantasy relevance beyond Rodney and Reed.

Recapping the Twins:

The arm to own: Jose Berrios
He's not for me:Kyle Gibson
Best of the bullpen:Fernando Rodney

Next week we'll look at the NL West.