This article is part of our MLB Barometer series.
I think the first month of the season is the most difficult month to make pickups.
Replacing a healthy player on your roster based on a handful of bad performances with a player from the waiver wire who has put together a handful of good performances is a dangerous, albeit necessary game.
Even though the fantasy community preaches patience and the need for larger sample sizes, we also know that important players will emerge in the first month of the season and being quick to make the right move can pay huge dividends.
With hitters, I look for improved lineup position or larger volumes of playing time than initially expected. With pitchers, I look for early bullpen patterns, and changes in pitch mix (including fluctuations in velocity). In many cases, I look back at the second half of last season to see if there were underlying performance improvements that I might have missed over winter.
Regardless of what you're looking for in a player to add, you need to decide on a player to drop, unless you're simply shifting an injured player into a DL slot.
Generally, the players you drafted as reserves (the final five to seven rounds) are the easiest cuts, but there is often an unnecessary sense of optimism about how good those players will be if you decide to cut them loose to make an early pickup.
I have found that it is helpful to figure out the priority list of who I am going to
I think the first month of the season is the most difficult month to make pickups.
Replacing a healthy player on your roster based on a handful of bad performances with a player from the waiver wire who has put together a handful of good performances is a dangerous, albeit necessary game.
Even though the fantasy community preaches patience and the need for larger sample sizes, we also know that important players will emerge in the first month of the season and being quick to make the right move can pay huge dividends.
With hitters, I look for improved lineup position or larger volumes of playing time than initially expected. With pitchers, I look for early bullpen patterns, and changes in pitch mix (including fluctuations in velocity). In many cases, I look back at the second half of last season to see if there were underlying performance improvements that I might have missed over winter.
Regardless of what you're looking for in a player to add, you need to decide on a player to drop, unless you're simply shifting an injured player into a DL slot.
Generally, the players you drafted as reserves (the final five to seven rounds) are the easiest cuts, but there is often an unnecessary sense of optimism about how good those players will be if you decide to cut them loose to make an early pickup.
I have found that it is helpful to figure out the priority list of who I am going to cut from my rosters before I prepare any pickup lists. That way, I'm not simply rifling through the lists of players while seeing every available addition with rose-colored glasses. Doing that can leave you with a long queue of players, many of which, might not be upgrades over the player you're cutting.
Plus, thinking more about your drops in advance, you can more carefully compare the reserve picks you made to the players you drafted ahead of them a few weeks ago. It's entirely possible that situations for some of those endgame players have improved enough to close the gap. The price you paid – whether auction dollars or a draft pick – to acquire a player initially is irrelevant once the draft is over.
As a reminder, players listed as Risers or Fallers in this column are labeled based on where their value is trending. Being a "Riser" available on the waiver wire does not mean a player is a must-add in all formats. On the contrary, being a "Faller" on your roster does not mean a player should be cut at the next opportunity. The goal of this piece is to highlight shifts in skills, opportunity and performance as those factors impact each player's fantasy value to varying degrees.
RISERS
Kyle Gibson, SP, MIN - Gibson became the butt of a running joke after the First Pitch Arizona Fact or Fluke pitching panel in November. Paul Sporer, Jason Collette, Doug Dennis and yours truly were on the fringes of indignation that our friends at Baseball HQ had the audacity to suggest that Gibson may have been on to something as a potential post-post-post hype sleeper in the second half of last season. The prompt sent to the panel was reasonable and direct:
Kyle Gibson – Second half skills breakout leads to sub-3.75 ERA in 2018. Fact or Fluke?
As I prepared my handout before the conference, I calmly pressed the caps lock key and wrote "FLUKE" along with the following notes:
• Altered pitch-mix in the second half (reduced two-seamers for four-seamers)
• More strikeouts, fewer walks, fewer homers; new skills-level across the board
• How much of the success can be attributed to his schedule in August and September?
• In final two months: three games against DET, two against KC, one against San Diego ... had a few short starts less than five innings in that span too.
• There was growth, but I don't want to bank on teams being unable to adjust to his adjustments. Probably a real-life No. 4 starter if those gains hold, and I don't expect an ERA under 4.00.
I have had plenty of takes worse than what you see above, but there were two things I did not properly account for. First, the Twins were not realigned out of the AL Central, leaving them plenty of matchups with the Tigers, Royals and White Sox on the schedule for 2018. Second, the Twins' outfield defense in particular is outstanding, with Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario combining for a +29 rating on the Outs Above Average Leaderboard (a lot of that comes from Buxton, but Kepler was also a net-positive in the outfield and Rosario is not bad).
Gibson will be on the short list of pitchers getting chased in the coming days as a potential pickup after tossing six hitless innings at Camden Yards against the Orioles on Saturday (he walked five and struck out six) and it's easy to write it off as an aberration since he's checked in with an ERA north of 5.00 and a WHIP higher than 1.50 in each of the last two seasons. A 4.00 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, with a good number of wins (13-14?) and strikeouts (150-160 if he gets to 190-plus innings) will be surprisingly useful in a large number of leagues.
Yonder Alonso, 1B, CLE - The Indians signed Alonso to a two-year, $16 million deal in December as a low-cost replacement for Carlos Santana. After making significant adjustments to his swing to hit the ball in the air more frequently, Alonso was pleasant surprise for fantasy owners in the first half of 2017 before he struggled to maintain that approach in the second half after he was flipped to the Mariners by the A's. The market was skeptical of Alonso this draft season, as he finished with an NFBC ADP just outside the top 250. If the Opening Day lineup is any indication, Alonso will hit clean-up against righties in a strong Cleveland lineup (he hit sixth and swatted a grand slam against Seattle lefty James Paxton on Saturday). In addition to the improved lineup around him, and a better-than-expected lineup placement to begin the season, Alonso will also benefit from playing half of his games in a home park that boosts left-handed homers (three-year park index: 110), a significant upgrade from Oakland (three-year park index: 84). As long as he keeps that valuable spot in the Cleveland lineup, Alonso should be relevant in shallow mixers.
Matt Davidson, 3B, CWS - Hitting three homers on Opening Day is really cool. I'd be overjoyed to hit three in a softball game. Davidson was used in the clean-up spot in each of the White Sox's first two games against the Royals to begin the season. He may continue to get those opportunities until he gives manager Rick Renteria a reason to do something different. The problem with Davidson last season – and throughout his time in the upper levels of the minors – has been plate discipline. In 2017, Davidson had a 37.2 percent strikeout rate along with a 4.3 percent walk rate. Behind a 26-homer performance, there was a .220/.260/.452 line. The K-rate was a tick below 40 percent (39.9) against right-handed pitching last season. The White Sox can afford to see if he's a late bloomer who has figured it all out at age 27. Prospect junkies might remember that Davidson was regarded as the top position player in the D-backs' farm system in 2011. Davidson, Bobby Borchering and Keon Broxton were ranked ahead of Paul Goldschmidt everywhere, and in the case of Davidson for Goldschmidt, it wasn't even close. If you want to be the optimist, by all means, stranger things have happened, but you should be fully aware of the risk in his profile.
Marcus Semien, SS, OAK - The A's used Semien as their No. 2 hitter against righties in the opening series against the Angels, moving him up to the leadoff spot against lefty Tyler Skaggs in the second game of the season Friday. Injuries limited Semien to 85 games last season, but he posted a double-digit stolen base total for the third consecutive season, improving his career success rate to 79.1 percent (38-for-48) in the process. The arrival of Matt Olson and Matt Chapman last season, paired with the trade for Stephen Piscotty and the signing of Jonathan Lucroy, gives the A's a significantly improved lineup for 2018. A 25-plus homer season with 10-15 steals and 90-plus runs are within reach.
Derek Dietrich, 3B, MIA - Dietrich is serving as the Marlins' primary left fielder to begin the season, and while things could get more complicated once Martin Prado is healthy, Dietrich's versatility should continue to help him find at-bats (and make him even more helpful in leagues with lower thresholds for position eligibility). Cameron Maybin started one of the team's first three games against the Cubs in favor of Garrett Cooper, which could leave Prado to play right field once he's healthy if he doesn't end up back at his regular spot at third base (in place of Brian Anderson). Dietrich posted a wRC+ of 122 in 2015 and followed it up with a 119 mark in 2016 before taking a big step back a year ago (99). The Marlins penciled him as the No. 2 hitter in each of the team's first three games, and the lack of big-league ready outfielders in the system to push him for playing time could lead him to 500 plate appearances for the first time as a big-leaguer in his age-28 campaign.
Drew Robinson, OF, TEX - The Rangers lost Delino DeShields Jr. to a fractured hamate bone over the weekend. The lack of experienced center field options on the roster (Rule 5 pick Carlos Tocci is the best option from a defensive standpoint) could open the door for Robinson to take on a more prominent role the next 4-6 weeks. Robinson should be eligible at third base and in the outfield in all leagues already, and he played more than five games at second base and shortstop last season, opening up even more flexibility in some leagues. The soon-to-be 26-year-old has shown an interesting combo of power and speed at Triple-A over parts of four seasons, carrying a combined .263/.362/.483 line while going 29-for-39 on the basepaths with 906 PCL plate appearances.
FALLERS
Josh Donaldson, 3B, TOR - The Blue Jays deployed Donaldson as their DH for three consecutive games in their season-opening series with the Yankees due to a case of "dead arm" that popped up in the team's home opener.
Your reminder: This corner belongs to @BringerOfRain20. #BlueJayspic.twitter.com/YBDiNWfElN
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) March 29, 2018
While it was believed that Donaldson was nursing a shoulder injury this spring, which might have limited his volume of max-effort throws in March, there is clearly something wrong, and it will be interesting to see if it begins to cost him time, or if it has any effect on his performance at the plate. Donaldson moving to the DH role is very bad news – at least in the short term – for Kendrys Morales. A short DL stint now would likely be a better long-term course of action.
Billy Hamilton, OF, CIN - The Reds think Scott Schebler is a center fielder, or at least, the Reds think Scott Schebler is a good enough center fielder to offset the difference between his offerings with the bat and Hamilton's. To make matters worse, Hamilton was hitting ninth on Opening Day, which will chip away at his counting stats over the course of the year, even though it's the absolute correct approach with an OBP machine like Jesse Winker available to set the table atop the order (against righties). Roster construction preferences steered me to draft Trevor Story ahead of Hamilton at Pick 93 in the NFBC Main Event late in draft season, and while Hamilton's speed will still make him an asset capable of swinging plenty of standings points in leagues where steals are tightly clustered, he already appears to be a long shot to reach 600 plate appearances in 2018.
Jon Lester, SP, CHC - Lester's average fastball velocity was down a full mile-per-hour from last season (90.1 mph) in his first start of the season against the Marlins on Thursday. Defensive miscues from Kyle Schwarber did not help matters in his disappointing outing (3.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 2 K), but the margin for error for Lester is shrinking fast if the velocity drop holds, as he had just one positive-value pitch in his arsenal in 2017 (his cutter). The team context and home park will still make him viable even if the skills continue to erode, but a drop from SP3 to SP5 or SP6 status isn't out of the question. Maybe I am in a unique position where I ended up with Lester in two leagues because was I was desperate for a high-volume starter without a second-tier price tag, but I'm looking to deal Lester in both of those leagues if I can find a willing buyer.
Wilmer Flores, 3B, NYM - Thanks to Todd Frazier and Adrian Gonzalez, Flores started one of the Mets' first three games, though it's an encouraging sign that he received that nod against Cardinals right-handed Luke Weaver. Gonzalez's age and injury risk could eventually clear a regular role at first base for Flores, who looked like a potential cheap 20-homer bat at the outset of draft season. He'll be utilized in place of Gonzalez against southpaws when the schedule brings that matchup, but Flores is a difficult player to roster beyond NL-only formats and extremely deep mixed leagues (16-plus teams) as long as he's blocked from regular duty.
Cam Bedrosian, RP, LAA - In his first three appearances this season, Bedrosian has entered the game in the seventh inning twice, and in the sixth inning once. Keynan Middleton took over for a struggling Blake Parker in a win Sunday to convert his first save of the season. In early March, there was a report suggesting that Bedrosian was the frontrunner to close for the Angels despite Parker's success in the ninth-inning role last season. The early usage patterns suggest otherwise, and Bedrosian might be an easy early season drop in mixed leagues as a result.
Alex Claudio, RP, TEX - True to their word, the Rangers have shifted Claudio away from closer duty to begin the season, positioning Keone Kela to take on the role initially, with Kevin Jepsen in the second chair. Claudio entered Sunday's game with runners on base in the sixth inning, and while he's a very useful piece in the Texas bullpen thanks to his heavy groundball tendencies, he's almost certainly going to fall short of being a useful staff filler thanks to his low career 6.5 K/9.
