This article is part of our Fantasy 101 series.
The baseball season is underway and there is a lot of excitement about daily fantasy games. DraftKings has already run a $500,000 contest and has a $1 million contest scheduled for the end of April. Their recent partnership with Major League Baseball has heightened the speculation for live events at baseball stadiums later on this year. Look for weekly articles on RotoWire focused on how you can get your seat to play for $1 million throughout the season. This week, I am going to focus on some of the basics with DraftKings to get you started.
DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball
Salary Cap - $50,000
Roster Composition – P, P, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF (ten players)
Position Eligibility – Fixed, Multiple
Average Cost Per Position - $5000
Average Salary Range per Player – Hitters $2,000-$6,000; Pitchers $5,000-$13,000.
Scoring System
Hitters will accumulate points as follows:
Single = +3 PTs
Double = +5 PTs
Triple = +8 PTs
Home Run = +10 PTs
Run Batted In = +2 PTs
Run = +2 PTs
Base on Balls = +2 PTs
Hit By Pitch = +2 PTs
Stolen Base = +5 PTs
Caught Stealing = -2 PTs
Pitchers will accumulate points as follows:
Inning Pitched = +2.25 PTs
Strike Out = +2 PTs
Win = +4 PTs
Earned Run Allowed = -2 PTs
Hit Against = -0.6 PTs
Base on Balls Against = -0.6 PTs
Hit Batsman = -0.6 PTs
Complete Game = +2.5 PTs
Complete Game Shut Out = +2.5 PTs
No Hitter = +5 PTs
DraftKings has fixed positions on rosters, but players can have more than one position, which opens up the amount of roster flexibility. You can take a player like Carlos Santana at catcher or Hanley Ramirez at shortstop.
The salaries are slightly tighter than FanDuel, but they also take into consideration "park factors," so players in hitting environments like Colorado or Texas will have a premium placed on their salary versus those in Seattle or San Diego. Added in this year, it appears that DraftKings is also adjusting player salaries based on the opposing pitcher. If the hitter is facing an ace, his salary will been adjusted down, and if they are facing a weaker pitcher, the salary will been adjusted up.
Also, take note of the scoring differences between sites, as there is more emphasis placed on hits versus runs or RBI. There are also no negative points for outs or strikeouts, so power hitters are placed at a premium.
With two starting pitchers, the need to find a value arm is critical because if you take two aces, you will have a weak hitting lineup. Taking a look at the scoring system for pitching, you can see there is more of an emphasis on innings pitched (2.25 points per IP) and strikeouts. The other scoring categories are adjusted similarly as FanDuel, with the exception of wins, which are only four points on DraftKings, so they are more of a bonus than a necessity. Taking pitchers in very low-scoring hitting environments is a good strategy to uphold.
On the hitting side, because there is a more of a gap between the lowest to highest players, it is important to find those minimum-salaried players who can break out on a given night. Having a few of these players will help alleviate salary to take some of the power hitters.
Factors for Outperforming Salary
One of the biggest keys in daily fantasy baseball is knowing how to extract value from players on a given night. Here are some of the things to consider:
Hitters
Opposite-handed hitter vs. starting pitcher (RHB vs. LHP, LHB vs. RHP): You gain about a 50-point edge in OPS when taking a RHB vs. LHP or LHB vs. RHP instead of a RHB vs. RHP, and it jumps to almost 100 points when looking at LHB vs. LHP.
Batting Order: You want to select players batting in the top five spots in the order. There is a significant drop off in OPS when they are in the 6-9 hole, especially in the National League. Especially look for hitters who jump in the order due to favorable platoon splits or an injury to a 1-5 hitter.
Facing "finesse" starting pitcher (defined as in the bottom third of the league in strikeouts plus walks – low k/high bb rate arm): You gain 90 points on OPS taking a hitter against a finesse pitcher.
Facing "flyball" starting pitcher (defined as in the bottom third of the league in ratio of fly ball outs to ground ball outs):You gain 15 points on OPS taking a hitter against a flyball pitcher.
Favorable hitting environment: Look for OPS situations that are at least .720 based on handedness in the ballpark. Notorious hitting parks like Texas, Toronto, Colorado, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Cincinnati and Yankee Stadium. Vegas total on the game is at least 8.5 runs or higher.
Pitchers
Heavy favorite to win the game according to the Vegas money line: Anything -150 or higher is a good barometer.
Weak opposing lineup with a penchant for striking out at a high clip: Highest K rates versus LHP in 2014 (Cubs, Mets, Braves, Astros, Phillies) and highest K rates versus RHP in 2014 (Astros, Cubs, Marlins, White Sox, Braves). Note that team lineups will change from year to year, so keep an eye on this.
Opposing lineup in the bottom five for wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average): Lowest wOBA versus LHP in 2014 (Mariners, Mets, Reds, Phillies, Indians) and Lowest wOBA versus RHP in 2014 (Braves, Reds, Phillies, Rangers, Cubs). Note: I excluded the Diamondbacks and Padres due to significant lineup upgrades.
Favorable pitching environment: Look for OPS situations that are .720 or less based on the handedness in the ballpark. Notorious pitcher parks are Citi Field (Mets), Miami, San Francisco, Seattle, LA Dodgers, Oakland, Minnesota, San Diego, Tampa Bay. Vegas total on the game is seven runs or lower.
Pitcher is at home and have at least 8.0 K/9
Target Scores
In order to win on DraftKings, you need to know what scores are needed when projecting players. Breaking down each position and category gives you the baselines needed to correctly project the players who will outperform their salary.
Hitters
Value Salary Range = $2,000-$3,900
Mid Tier Salary Range = $4,000-$4,900
Top Tier Salary Range = $5,000-$6,000
Pitchers
Value Salary Range = $4,000-$6,900
Mid Tier Salary Range = $7,000-$8,900
Top Tier Salary Range = $9,000-$13,000
Tournaments (Guaranteed Prize Pool) – (avg. score to take first place in a large field tournament)
Target Score – 150 points
Fantasy Points Pitching ($15,000-$20,000 allocation; 30-40 percent of salary cap)
Fantasy Points Hitting ($30,000-$35,000 allocation; 60-70 percent of salary cap)
Head to Head / 50-50 Double Up
Target Score – 100 points
