This article is part of our Pitching 3D series.
We've come to our last stop on the two-week grading tour through big-league pitching staffs, and in many ways we have saved the best for last. Not only is the game's preeminent pitcher in this division, but the division is chock full of grade-A performances and second-half intrigue.
Greinke was roughed up in his first month as a Diamondback before righting the ship, and though it was a slow progression, he was flying high in June with a 1.63 ERA through six starts and 38.2 innings. The final start of the month was cut short as Greinke left after two innings with a strained oblique. The injury sent him to the disabled list, and though he might return just after the All-Star break, oblique injuries tend to linger and they can have a ripple effect on velocity as well as mechanical timing if the player comes back too soon and tries to compensate. When he does come back, Greinke will still have to deal with the difficulties of being a high-contact pitcher whose
As usual, the grades reflect the pitcher's first-half fantasy performance -- relative to his perceived value on draft day -- in the four key rotisserie categories: wins, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. The bar is higher for Clayton Kershaw than it is for Jake Peavy, and a player's contributions are considered relative to the cost of acquisition.
(Stats through July 8.)
Arizona Diamondbacks
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 17 | 109.1 | 10 | 3.62 | 1.16 | 91 |
Greinke was roughed up in his first month as a Diamondback before righting the ship, and though it was a slow progression, he was flying high in June with a 1.63 ERA through six starts and 38.2 innings. The final start of the month was cut short as Greinke left after two innings with a strained oblique. The injury sent him to the disabled list, and though he might return just after the All-Star break, oblique injuries tend to linger and they can have a ripple effect on velocity as well as mechanical timing if the player comes back too soon and tries to compensate. When he does come back, Greinke will still have to deal with the difficulties of being a high-contact pitcher whose
We've come to our last stop on the two-week grading tour through big-league pitching staffs, and in many ways we have saved the best for last. Not only is the game's preeminent pitcher in this division, but the division is chock full of grade-A performances and second-half intrigue.
Greinke was roughed up in his first month as a Diamondback before righting the ship, and though it was a slow progression, he was flying high in June with a 1.63 ERA through six starts and 38.2 innings. The final start of the month was cut short as Greinke left after two innings with a strained oblique. The injury sent him to the disabled list, and though he might return just after the All-Star break, oblique injuries tend to linger and they can have a ripple effect on velocity as well as mechanical timing if the player comes back too soon and tries to compensate. When he does come back, Greinke will still have to deal with the difficulties of being a high-contact pitcher whose home ballpark is conducive to such things.
There was once hope that Corbin could rediscover the level of effectiveness that he had before going under the knife, but he has been consistently awful this season. His ERA has stayed within the narrow range of 4.88 to 5.04 in each of the season's first three months, and his strikeout rate has cratered from last season's respectable 8.3 K/9 (21.9 percent) to 6.6 K/9 (16.9 percent) this season. The greatest asset that Corbin has displayed throughout his career is an ability to limit walks, with a career rate of 2.2 BB/9 (5.7 percent) entering this season and a career-low 4.8 percent last year, but in 2016 those numbers have shot up to 8.2 percent and 3.2 BB/9. ... Abandon ship.
Ray strikes out a ton of batters, but the Ks fail to counterbalance the virus that he gives to the ratios. He started the season with three consecutive quality starts, but he has registered just three more quality starts in the 14 turns since. He might be worth a spot start if desperate for Ks, in which case it's probably best to go with Ray when he's pitching on the road -- he has a 3.50 ERA in eight road starts this season but a 5.92 ERA in nine turns at Chase Field.
Miller entered the season with big expectations, but he has pitched his way onto the waiver wire in the vast majority of leagues. It's frustrating when a young player yo-yos between excellence and putrescence, but such has been the case for Miller in his career. The extreme depths of his 2016 campaign are far-reaching, including career-high rates (by far) of hits, walks and homers allowed, a career-low rate of strikeouts, and an ERA that is nearly double what he has put up in even his worst MLB season up to this point. It might be time to abandon ship on Corbin, but the torched shipwreck of S.S. Miller was beached long ago.
Expectations have sunk since Bradley was a top prospect, but at 23 he still has youth on his side. He walks too many but has reigned in the free passes since last season, plus he is striking out more than a batter per inning. However, the kid is relying on a merely solid fastball more than 70 percent of the time and his changeup is a work in progress, leaving him as basically a two-pitch pitcher until he hones his stuff and command. There could still be a bright future, but expect more growing pains along the way.
Let's just get those out of the way now: don't start Rockies pitchers at home. Maybe that's obvious, but every pitcher on the Colorado staff is essentially a half pitcher, and that's before getting into the difficulty of going back and forth between their high-altitude home and sea level throughout the season. Chatwood has been excellent as a spot-start option this season, with a 1.30 ERA and 5-0 record in eight turns on the road. Don't expect it to continue, as the only thing sparing the low-K sinkerballer is an avoidance of home runs, and that can come back to bite him at any point.
His prospect brethren Eddie Butler proved unfit for the trials and tribulations of pitching at altitude, but Gray has come out of the other side of the gauntlet with solid numbers in multiple categories. He's not only been a solid road start this season but has even popped a couple gems at home, including his last start of the first half, a 6.1-inning, two-run start with eight strikeouts against the Phillies. I'm not ready to proclaim Gray as the walk-on-water-turned-to-wine pitcher who could save the Rockies from their own high-altitude hell, but I am saying that he is a top-flight arm who can be dominant at sea level.
He was the first pitcher off the board in fantasy drafts, the only whose ADP placed him in the first round, and was the most expensive pitcher in just about everyone's auction this year; yet despite the high price, Kershaw has been worth every penny in the first half this season. He earns an A on his report card despite the high bar of excellence needed to achieve such a score, with some of the best numbers in the game in all four categories that he can impact as a starting pitcher. The second half is the question, as his ailing back is a concern that looms like a storm cloud above his stat line. Every start that the southpaw misses is a serious knock to his fantasy owners, because start-for-start there is no better pitcher in the game, but there is no telling how long his back injury will keep Kersh off the mound or whether the problem will persist after he returns. The question of his innings is one of the most pertinent of the second half.
Maeda entered the season with considerably less hype than other top hurlers from Japan, but that has not stopped him from being extremely effective in his first tour of the majors. He has returned positive value in every category this season, exceeding even optimistic projections with his K-per-inning pace and low-3.00 ERA. There's a good chance his numbers step backward a bit on his second tour through the league, as advanced scouts do their job and teams learn how to attack the right-hander, so it will be interesting to see how Maeda adjusts in the second half.
He has three variations of breaking ball, throwing a cutter, slider and curve a combined 26 percent of the time, yet those three secondaries have finished just 18 percent of his strikeouts this season; the fastball (55 percent) and changeup (27 percent) have dominated his strike-three's. His solid counting stats offset middling ratios, but he could be a stealth presence in the second half, with the outside chance that he puts together the higher K rate with his low ratios of old to help a team in all four categories. There's volatility here, but he makes for an intriguing trade target for teams in the middle of the pack willing to take risks.
His talent knows no bounds, and in dynasty leagues Urias deserves a lofty ranking, but his lack of innings and birthday candles conspire to severely limit his value for the rest of this season in single-year leagues. Urias will be back with the Dodgers, but in when and in what capacity are open issues. If he comes back as a reliever, then he'll have little to no value in standard roto leagues.
He added a cutter, tacked on some curveballs and discovered a new tier of strikeouts that has vaulted Pomeranz multiple levels on the value scale. Despite the reputation of Petco as an extreme pitchers' park, Pomeranz is the only arm worth owning on the San Diego pitching staff, either now or in the second half. The hit rate will regress and bring the ratios with it, but the strikeout-related gains appear legit, and Pomeranz makes for another interesting trade target who might still be considered under the radar in terms of perceived value.
This is not a recommendation. Cashner has been a nightmare this season, and is only listed because every team needs to have at least two representatives. I used to be higher on Cash, which might explain why he gets the nod over the other bad options in the San Diego rotation, as a pitcher with elite velocity and a well-balanced delivery always has my attention, but I've given up on his impact in 2016.
Bummer has been one of the most consistently excellent pitchers in baseball the last six years, and this season he has found a way to top himself. The ERA is 0.68 runs lower than his best single-season mark, the strikeouts are churning at a career-high rate while his WHIP and record are right on pace with last season. Bumgarner has a history of cooking with even more gas as the seasons wears on, making him a solid pitcher to target to carry a fantasy pitching staff for the second half.
Cueto has shaken off the struggles that he endured down the stretch of 2015, becoming an elite pitcher in three categories without hurting the fourth. His 13-1 record will even out a bit, but the lofty win total isn't a total accident, as his stamina and pitch efficiency allow him to go deep into ballgames and lead the majors in innings as we enter the All-Star break.
Well, he's not getting hit as hard as last season, though his change in home ballpark might be masking stagnation with superficially stronger numbers. Even with the ballpark adjustment, the Shark has been selectively useful this season and the strikeouts have dropped to dangerous levels. His value has come from wins and his typically exceptional walk rate, and one could see the pendulum of his ratios swinging one way or the other in the second half.
Peavy has actually been useful in many of his recent starts, but just when you turn your back he coughs up a seven-spot and is axed in the fourth. The line isn't pretty, but he's pitched better than the numbers indicate.
As usual, the grades reflect the pitcher's first-half fantasy performance -- relative to his perceived value on draft day -- in the four key rotisserie categories: wins, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. The bar is higher for Clayton Kershaw than it is for Jake Peavy, and a player's contributions are considered relative to the cost of acquisition.
(Stats through July 8.)
Arizona Diamondbacks
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 17 | 109.1 | 10 | 3.62 | 1.16 | 91 |
Greinke was roughed up in his first month as a Diamondback before righting the ship, and though it was a slow progression, he was flying high in June with a 1.63 ERA through six starts and 38.2 innings. The final start of the month was cut short as Greinke left after two innings with a strained oblique. The injury sent him to the disabled list, and though he might return just after the All-Star break, oblique injuries tend to linger and they can have a ripple effect on velocity as well as mechanical timing if the player comes back too soon and tries to compensate. When he does come back, Greinke will still have to deal with the difficulties of being a high-contact pitcher whose home ballpark is conducive to such things.
Grade: C+
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 18 | 105.2 | 4 | 4.94 | 1.48 | 75 |
There was once hope that Corbin could rediscover the level of effectiveness that he had before going under the knife, but he has been consistently awful this season. His ERA has stayed within the narrow range of 4.88 to 5.04 in each of the season's first three months, and his strikeout rate has cratered from last season's respectable 8.3 K/9 (21.9 percent) to 6.6 K/9 (16.9 percent) this season. The greatest asset that Corbin has displayed throughout his career is an ability to limit walks, with a career rate of 2.2 BB/9 (5.7 percent) entering this season and a career-low 4.8 percent last year, but in 2016 those numbers have shot up to 8.2 percent and 3.2 BB/9. ... Abandon ship.
Grade: D
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 17 | 92.1 | 4 | 4.78 | 1.55 | 108 |
Ray strikes out a ton of batters, but the Ks fail to counterbalance the virus that he gives to the ratios. He started the season with three consecutive quality starts, but he has registered just three more quality starts in the 14 turns since. He might be worth a spot start if desperate for Ks, in which case it's probably best to go with Ray when he's pitching on the road -- he has a 3.50 ERA in eight road starts this season but a 5.92 ERA in nine turns at Chase Field.
Grade: C-
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 14 | 69.1 | 2 | 7.14 | 1.75 | 50 |
Miller entered the season with big expectations, but he has pitched his way onto the waiver wire in the vast majority of leagues. It's frustrating when a young player yo-yos between excellence and putrescence, but such has been the case for Miller in his career. The extreme depths of his 2016 campaign are far-reaching, including career-high rates (by far) of hits, walks and homers allowed, a career-low rate of strikeouts, and an ERA that is nearly double what he has put up in even his worst MLB season up to this point. It might be time to abandon ship on Corbin, but the torched shipwreck of S.S. Miller was beached long ago.
Grade: F
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 10 | 58 | 3 | 4.81 | 1.40 | 60 |
Expectations have sunk since Bradley was a top prospect, but at 23 he still has youth on his side. He walks too many but has reigned in the free passes since last season, plus he is striking out more than a batter per inning. However, the kid is relying on a merely solid fastball more than 70 percent of the time and his changeup is a work in progress, leaving him as basically a two-pitch pitcher until he hones his stuff and command. There could still be a bright future, but expect more growing pains along the way.
Grade: C
Colorado Rockies
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 15 | 90.2 | 8 | 3.08 | 1.24 | 57 |
Let's just get those out of the way now: don't start Rockies pitchers at home. Maybe that's obvious, but every pitcher on the Colorado staff is essentially a half pitcher, and that's before getting into the difficulty of going back and forth between their high-altitude home and sea level throughout the season. Chatwood has been excellent as a spot-start option this season, with a 1.30 ERA and 5-0 record in eight turns on the road. Don't expect it to continue, as the only thing sparing the low-K sinkerballer is an avoidance of home runs, and that can come back to bite him at any point.
Grade: B-
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 15 | 88.2 | 5 | 4.67 | 1.17 | 95 |
His prospect brethren Eddie Butler proved unfit for the trials and tribulations of pitching at altitude, but Gray has come out of the other side of the gauntlet with solid numbers in multiple categories. He's not only been a solid road start this season but has even popped a couple gems at home, including his last start of the first half, a 6.1-inning, two-run start with eight strikeouts against the Phillies. I'm not ready to proclaim Gray as the walk-on-water-turned-to-wine pitcher who could save the Rockies from their own high-altitude hell, but I am saying that he is a top-flight arm who can be dominant at sea level.
Grade: B
Los Angeles Dodgers
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 16 | 121 | 11 | 1.79 | 0.73 | 145 |
He was the first pitcher off the board in fantasy drafts, the only whose ADP placed him in the first round, and was the most expensive pitcher in just about everyone's auction this year; yet despite the high price, Kershaw has been worth every penny in the first half this season. He earns an A on his report card despite the high bar of excellence needed to achieve such a score, with some of the best numbers in the game in all four categories that he can impact as a starting pitcher. The second half is the question, as his ailing back is a concern that looms like a storm cloud above his stat line. Every start that the southpaw misses is a serious knock to his fantasy owners, because start-for-start there is no better pitcher in the game, but there is no telling how long his back injury will keep Kersh off the mound or whether the problem will persist after he returns. The question of his innings is one of the most pertinent of the second half.
Grade: A
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 17 | 96.2 | 7 | 3.07 | 1.15 | 94 |
Maeda entered the season with considerably less hype than other top hurlers from Japan, but that has not stopped him from being extremely effective in his first tour of the majors. He has returned positive value in every category this season, exceeding even optimistic projections with his K-per-inning pace and low-3.00 ERA. There's a good chance his numbers step backward a bit on his second tour through the league, as advanced scouts do their job and teams learn how to attack the right-hander, so it will be interesting to see how Maeda adjusts in the second half.
Grade: B+
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 18 | 97.2 | 7 | 4.52 | 1.32 | 106 |
He has three variations of breaking ball, throwing a cutter, slider and curve a combined 26 percent of the time, yet those three secondaries have finished just 18 percent of his strikeouts this season; the fastball (55 percent) and changeup (27 percent) have dominated his strike-three's. His solid counting stats offset middling ratios, but he could be a stealth presence in the second half, with the outside chance that he puts together the higher K rate with his low ratios of old to help a team in all four categories. There's volatility here, but he makes for an intriguing trade target for teams in the middle of the pack willing to take risks.
Grade: C
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 8 | 36.1 | 1 | 4.95 | 1.54 | 44 |
His talent knows no bounds, and in dynasty leagues Urias deserves a lofty ranking, but his lack of innings and birthday candles conspire to severely limit his value for the rest of this season in single-year leagues. Urias will be back with the Dodgers, but in when and in what capacity are open issues. If he comes back as a reliever, then he'll have little to no value in standard roto leagues.
Grade: C
San Diego Padres
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 17 | 102 | 8 | 2.47 | 1.06 | 115 |
He added a cutter, tacked on some curveballs and discovered a new tier of strikeouts that has vaulted Pomeranz multiple levels on the value scale. Despite the reputation of Petco as an extreme pitchers' park, Pomeranz is the only arm worth owning on the San Diego pitching staff, either now or in the second half. The hit rate will regress and bring the ratios with it, but the strikeout-related gains appear legit, and Pomeranz makes for another interesting trade target who might still be considered under the radar in terms of perceived value.
Grade: A
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 13 | 61.2 | 3 | 5.40 | 1.56 | 44 |
This is not a recommendation. Cashner has been a nightmare this season, and is only listed because every team needs to have at least two representatives. I used to be higher on Cash, which might explain why he gets the nod over the other bad options in the San Diego rotation, as a pitcher with elite velocity and a well-balanced delivery always has my attention, but I've given up on his impact in 2016.
Grade: F
San Francisco Giants
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 18 | 120 | 9 | 2.09 | 1.02 | 132 |
Bummer has been one of the most consistently excellent pitchers in baseball the last six years, and this season he has found a way to top himself. The ERA is 0.68 runs lower than his best single-season mark, the strikeouts are churning at a career-high rate while his WHIP and record are right on pace with last season. Bumgarner has a history of cooking with even more gas as the seasons wears on, making him a solid pitcher to target to carry a fantasy pitching staff for the second half.
Grade: A-
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 18 | 131.1 | 13 | 2.47 | 1.00 | 115 |
Cueto has shaken off the struggles that he endured down the stretch of 2015, becoming an elite pitcher in three categories without hurting the fourth. His 13-1 record will even out a bit, but the lofty win total isn't a total accident, as his stamina and pitch efficiency allow him to go deep into ballgames and lead the majors in innings as we enter the All-Star break.
Grade: A-
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 18 | 117.1 | 9 | 3.91 | 1.18 | 90 |
Well, he's not getting hit as hard as last season, though his change in home ballpark might be masking stagnation with superficially stronger numbers. Even with the ballpark adjustment, the Shark has been selectively useful this season and the strikeouts have dropped to dangerous levels. His value has come from wins and his typically exceptional walk rate, and one could see the pendulum of his ratios swinging one way or the other in the second half.
Grade: C
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 17 | 89.1 | 5 | 5.14 | 1.43 | 69 |
Peavy has actually been useful in many of his recent starts, but just when you turn your back he coughs up a seven-spot and is axed in the fourth. The line isn't pretty, but he's pitched better than the numbers indicate.
Grade: D+
