Pitching 3D: Get to Know September Callups

Pitching 3D: Get to Know September Callups

This article is part of our Pitching 3D series.

Whether it be injury (Stephen Strasburg), innings caps (Julio Urias) or the fatigue of a long season, many teams are looking for mound reinforcements as the regular season heads to a close. Some of these clubs - like the Nats and Dodgers - are still pushing for the playoffs and need these players to put up strong performances down the stretch, while others are just playing out the string and giving kids from the farm a chance to milk cows at the big-league level. September roster expansion has opened the doors for some new faces to take major-league mounds across the nation, but out west there are a couple pitchers in particular who have been handed the keys to the starting rotation over the final month of the season.

Jeff Hoffman, RHP (23)
Called up August 20

IP K BB H HR WHIP ERA
MLB 22.1 13 12 30 7 1.88 6.04
AAA 118.2 124 44 117 11 1.36 4.02
Listed at 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds, Hoffman fits the prototype build of a workhorse starting pitcher. He was in discussion for the top overall pick in the 2014 draft, but Tommy John surgery during his junior season at East Carolina bumped him down, albeit only slightly as the Blue Jays took Hoffman with the ninth overall pick. He was dealt to Colorado near last year's deadline as part of the Troy Tulowitzki trade, essentially sabotaging the right-hander's fantasy value with his banishment to Coors Field,
Whether it be injury (Stephen Strasburg), innings caps (Julio Urias) or the fatigue of a long season, many teams are looking for mound reinforcements as the regular season heads to a close. Some of these clubs - like the Nats and Dodgers - are still pushing for the playoffs and need these players to put up strong performances down the stretch, while others are just playing out the string and giving kids from the farm a chance to milk cows at the big-league level. September roster expansion has opened the doors for some new faces to take major-league mounds across the nation, but out west there are a couple pitchers in particular who have been handed the keys to the starting rotation over the final month of the season.

Jeff Hoffman, RHP (23)
Called up August 20

IP K BB H HR WHIP ERA
MLB 22.1 13 12 30 7 1.88 6.04
AAA 118.2 124 44 117 11 1.36 4.02
Listed at 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds, Hoffman fits the prototype build of a workhorse starting pitcher. He was in discussion for the top overall pick in the 2014 draft, but Tommy John surgery during his junior season at East Carolina bumped him down, albeit only slightly as the Blue Jays took Hoffman with the ninth overall pick. He was dealt to Colorado near last year's deadline as part of the Troy Tulowitzki trade, essentially sabotaging the right-hander's fantasy value with his banishment to Coors Field, yet the Jose Reyes fiasco puts an even greater onus on Hoffman's ability to succeed in thin air.

We have yet to see the pitcher who can consistently thrive at altitude, and Hoffman has been getting lit up like a Christmas tree both at home and on the road this season. Still, the 23-year-old deserves an extended look and the Rox have nothing to lose by giving the kid some innings at the highest level.

Hoffman's stat line would look even worse if it weren't for the fact that all seven runs that he gave up to the Padres on Sept. 8 were deemed unearned. Sure enough, 12 of the 27 runs that Hoffman has given up this season have been unearned, meaning that his RA is nearly double his atrocious ERA. Three of his first five starts in the majors have each seen seven runners cross the plate on his watch before the fifth inning was over, and two of those three turns were on the road (at San Diego and at Arizona). He has also been way too forgiving with homers, having given up bombs in each of his five starts this season, and five of the seven total homers that he has allowed have come on the road.

His minor-league stats from this season should be taken in the same context as his Colorado home, as the Rockies' Triple-A affiliate in Albuquerque is a similarly hellish environment for pitchers and the road parks of the Pacific Coast League are also not very forgiving. Still, he posted the requisite K-per-inning to maintain respect from prospect rankers, with a walk rate that was close to league average. The line was solid if not dominant considering the context.

The Stuff

Hoffman throws hard, averaging 95.1 mph on his four-seamer according to Brooks Baseball, though his fastball often receives high grades due to the perception that he will build velocity over time, given that he theoretically has the frame to do so. Hoffman throws a pair of breaking balls, including a 12-to-6 curve with excellent depth and late movement for a pitch with so much of it, as well as a harder slider that features more movement in the lateral direction than vertical. He also throws a changeup with some drop but little fade, and the off-speed is a pitch that is very much still a work in progress. His best secondary at present is the curve, but the slider has its moments as well.


The Mechanics

The bones of Hoffman's delivery are solid, with above-average balance and a decent pace to the plate that's carved on an efficient path towards the target, often finishing with his momentum going toward the target (but sometimes falling off to the first-base side of the mound). He also has huge torque, and though I like to see a pitcher utilize torque (aka hip-shoulder separation) rather than brute arm strength, the components of Hoffman's hip-shoulder separation leave him highly vulnerable to elbow drag, which is a precursor to elbow injury.

Elbow drag is what occurs when a pitcher's throwing arm lags behind the rest of the body in the sequence of the kinetic chain, such that his elbow drags behind the shoulder line (think of a broom-handle across the pitcher's shoulders) during crucial phases of rotation. There are three ways to get elbow drag: a pronounced scapular load (back-side shoulders pinch), elbows raised above the acromial line (aka the "Inverted-W") and/or an exaggerated delay to the pitcher's trigger of trunk rotation. Hoffman displays all three on a regular basis, and he experiences elbow drag on nearly every pitch.

Jose De Leon, RHP (24)

Prior to the season, most sources had De Leon ranked as the top prospect in a vaunted system that included Corey Seager (who still counts as a rookie) and Julio Urias, but the magnitude of those top two effectively overshadowed the 2013 24th-round pick. His big-league debut was electric at times, with nine strikeouts and zero walks against the Padres, though De Leon also surrendered four runs (three earned) in 6.0 innings. Perhaps most remarkable was his pitch-count efficiency, as De Leon needed just 86 pitches to throw the baseline quality start in his debut on Sept. 4.

IP K BB H HR WHIP ERA
MLB 11.0 12 2 8 3 0.91 4.09
AAA 86.1 111 20 61 9 0.94 2.61
De Leon might lack the "prototype" size of Hoffman, but at 6-2 and 190 pounds, the Dodgers' right-hander has an average frame that may not be large enough to draw raves from scouts but is sufficient to avoid stamina-related whispers about his size. De Leon's minor-league numbers were absolutely dominant, including a 32.5 percent strikeout rate against a low frequency of just 5.8 percent walks. He was very difficult to hit despite playing in the hitter-friendly confines of the PCL, though his home ballpark in Oklahoma City was much friendlier to pitchers than the gauntlet that Hoffman endured in Albuquerque.

The run prevention hasn't always been so keen in the minors, but De Leon's affinity for strikeouts has been present since day one. He has not thrown more than 20 innings at any stop in his minor-league career without posting at least a strikeout-per-inning, and from 2014-16 he pitched a combined 277.2 innings in the minors, striking out a ridiculous 393 batters in that stretch, or 12.7 K/9 for those scoring at home. He walked just 78 batters over that same three-year stretch, good for 2.5 BB/9 and a K/BB greater than 5.0.

The Stuff

What De Leon lacks is gun-shattering velocity, as his fastball averages a modest 91.8 mph this season, but the right-hander has been known to bring it in the mid-90s and touch 96 mph when he needs the extra gas. Most impressive is his fastball command, which allows him to get ahead of counts and set up the rest of his repertoire.

The key to De Leon's whole approach is his changeup, a deceiving pitch with late drop and the same arm-speed as his fastball, leaving batters to swing over the top of the pitch. He has thrown the change 23 percent of the time in his first couple starts, and his constant interplay between the fastball and change is fascinating thing to watch. The two pitches play off each other in a symbiotic relationship, and though his cambio sounds like it's made to order when he gets to two strikes, he still throws the heat two-thirds of the time in those situations and has ended at-bats on the fastball for nine of his 11 strikeouts. He also throws a slider with average potential, but it is currently his least-used and least-effective pitch.

The Mechanics

When I talk about a pitcher carving a straight line to the plate - and I talk about it often - this is what I'm talking about:


De Leon's whole approach is predicated on an ideal streamline to the target, and the on-path momentum begins the moment that he lifts his front leg off the ground, as he leads with the hip to get the body moving forward well before he reaches max leg lift. He then utilizes a pronounced drop-n-drive as transitions from the lift to the stride phase of his delivery, and though his vertical balance suffers greatly due to the drop, he also takes advantage of the "drive" part of the slogan more than most pitchers. It looks almost as if he is ducking into a tunnel, like he's about to go into the tube of a giant waterslide, but once in the tube De Leon gets his momentum going with a combination of power, speed and finesse.

During his stride, De Leon carves extremely efficient paths of kinetic energy with powerful momentum, and though he appears to have a bit of flail near release point, it's a controlled flail as his momentum takes him further toward the target after release point. His vertical balance obviously suffers but De Leon's stability is otherwise solid in the X- and Z-planes, resulting in plus balance overall. He has strong torque and even finishes with above-average posture, highlighting an impressive blend of power and stability that is rarely seen among prospects.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Doug Thorburn
Doug started writing for RotoWire in April of 2015. His work can be found elsewhere at Baseball Prospectus and RotoGrinders, and as the co-host of the Baseballholics Anonymous podcast. Thorburn's expertise lies on the mound, where he tackles the world of pitching with an emphasis on mechanical evaluation. He spent five years at the National Pitching Association working under pitching coach Tom House, where Thorburn ran the hi-speed motion analysis program in addition to serving as an instructor. Thorburn and House wrote the 2009 book, “Arm Action, Arm Path, and the Perfect Pitch: Building a Million Dollar Arm,” using data from hi-speed motion analysis to tackle conventional wisdom in baseball. His DraftKings ID is “Raising Aces”.
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