This article is part of our Farm Futures series.
Continuing with our tour of the minor leagues, we travel to the Florida State League this week to see what some notable High-A hitters have been up to. This is a pitcher's league, so the hitting numbers are typically pretty suppressed. Last year for instance, two players tied for the league lead with 14 homers. As always, prospects are listed in the approximate order of their value in dynasty leagues.
Jorge Mateo, SS, Tampa (Yankees): .262/.319/.392, five HR, eight 3B, eight 2B, 26-for-38 on SB attempts, 73:25 K:BB in 304 AB.
Mateo had a rough June, hitting .194 with just three extra-base hits. He wasn't having a hard time making contact, he was just struggling to drive the ball and find holes in the defense. Still, his first couple months were strong enough that even with his current slump, his numbers are still respectable for a Florida State League shortstop who just turned 21. Mateo's hit tool was always going to determine whether he profiled as a cornerstone in dynasty leagues and we probably won't have a good idea what he's capable of in that department until he gets a good amount of reps against upper-level pitching. For now, the dream of a .275 hitter with 15 homers and 40 steals during his peak seasons remains a possibility. He has played some second base, but that has only been to allow his teammate Abiatal Avelino to get some starts at shortstop. With a big second half, Mateo could
Continuing with our tour of the minor leagues, we travel to the Florida State League this week to see what some notable High-A hitters have been up to. This is a pitcher's league, so the hitting numbers are typically pretty suppressed. Last year for instance, two players tied for the league lead with 14 homers. As always, prospects are listed in the approximate order of their value in dynasty leagues.
Jorge Mateo, SS, Tampa (Yankees): .262/.319/.392, five HR, eight 3B, eight 2B, 26-for-38 on SB attempts, 73:25 K:BB in 304 AB.
Mateo had a rough June, hitting .194 with just three extra-base hits. He wasn't having a hard time making contact, he was just struggling to drive the ball and find holes in the defense. Still, his first couple months were strong enough that even with his current slump, his numbers are still respectable for a Florida State League shortstop who just turned 21. Mateo's hit tool was always going to determine whether he profiled as a cornerstone in dynasty leagues and we probably won't have a good idea what he's capable of in that department until he gets a good amount of reps against upper-level pitching. For now, the dream of a .275 hitter with 15 homers and 40 steals during his peak seasons remains a possibility. He has played some second base, but that has only been to allow his teammate Abiatal Avelino to get some starts at shortstop. With a big second half, Mateo could finish the year as a top-10 prospect in the game.
Corey Ray, OF, Brevard County (Brewers)
Ray was assigned to High-A after signing and played his first professional game Monday as the DH. This was the most aggressive assignment for any player in this year's draft, but Ray has the polish to reward the Brewers for their optimism in their prized first round pick. Milwaukee now has Brett Phillips playing center field at Double-A with Trent Clark playing center at Low-A, and Ray should soon begin playing center at High-A. It will be interesting to see how the organizational depth chart shakes out over the coming years, but Ray might be the safest bet of the three despite having the least experience in the pro ranks.
Christin Stewart, OF, Lakeland (Tigers): .245/.396/.509, 18 HR, 17 2B, 2-for-3 on SB attempts, 87:60 K:BB in 269 AB.
Stewart has already hit more homers than any Florida State League hitter managed over a full season last year. It's valid to be a little concerned about what his batting average will look like in the big leagues, but he seems like a solid bet to get on base enough to profile as an everyday left fielder. In points and OBP leagues Stewart becomes quite a bit more valuable than he does in roto leagues, but the power is legitimate enough that he should be useful across all formats. He has an odd setup in the box and gets his center of gravity very low while loading up for pull-side power, so it's hard to see him ever hitting much better than .250 or .260 as he moves up the ranks. Stewart is a below-average runner, so almost all of his fantasy value will be derived from his power production. It's not a perfect overall package, but few hitters in the lower levels can match his power potential while also striking out at less than a 30 percent clip (26 percent).
Nick Gordon, SS, Fort Myers (Twins): .285/.338/.406, two HR, five 3B, 14 2B, 10-for-18 on SB attempts, 50:15 K:BB in 249 AB.
Everyone knows Gordon is a quality shortstop prospect but his lack of an elite skill seems to leave him in the periphery whenever the top prospects at the position get discussed. He also lacks any apparent weaknesses other than showing significant splits (.203/.271/.266 against southpaws), but he really handles righties and his glove is good enough that he should be able to stick in the lineup as a full-time player even if he doesn't make much progress against lefties. Gordon has an above average hit tool with average to a tick above average speed on the bases. He has hit just four home runs in 240 professional games, but he's much stronger than his older brother Dee Gordon and projects to hit 10-15 homers a year in the big leagues. Gordon won't be star at the position, but he will be someone who is drafted as a low-end shortstop or high-end middle infielder in standard leagues.
Richard Urena, SS, Dunedin (Blue Jays): .274/.326/.403, four HR, six 3B, 13 2B, 8-for-11 on SB attempts, 50:19 K:BB in 288 AB.
Urena is almost two years younger than teammate and more well-known prospect Anthony Alford, but it is Urena and not Alford who is having the better year in the Florida State League. The approach needs some work but he is very gifted at putting bat to ball thanks to plus bat speed. It would not be surprising if the strikeout totals ticked up when he heads to Double-A, but the improvements he has made this year after struggling in a 30-game run at High-A last year give hope to Urena being able to continue to make adjustments as he moves up the organizational ranks. There's the potential for a 20-homer/10-steal shortstop who hits .270 in the big leagues, and that line will still play even if he ends up having to move to second or third base.
Anthony Alford, OF, Dunedin (Blue Jays): .191/.289/.272, two HR, seven 2B, 6-for-9 on SB attempts, 64:20 K:BB in 162 AB.
A knee injury and a concussion have already cost Alford time this season and it's easy to view the injuries as the causation for what has been a very disappointing season to date. Alford was seen as a relatively safe prospect before the season, due to his possessing one of the best approaches in the minor leagues a year ago. Now he's looking less safe and his high batting averages on balls in play at multiple stops in 2015 suddenly look more suspect. A 34.4 percent K-rate looms as another alarming development, as he posted just a 19.2 percent K-rate at the same level last year.
Justin Williams, OF, Charlotte (Rays): .302/.323/.415, three HR, nine 2B, 22:5 K:BB in 159 AB.
Williams seems like he has been around forever, but he's still just 20 years old and could be nearing a promotion to Double-A after having also played 23 games at the level at the end of last season. The raw power hasn't translated into much in-game pop yet, but the fact that he's hitting for average is enough for this season to be seen as a success so far after he struggled in his first taste of the Florida State League. Williams has the look of a prime breakout candidate in the second half if he can start impacting the baseball on a more regular basis.
Cole Tucker, SS, Bradenton (Pirates): .239/.300/.283, one 3B, two 2B, 1-for-5 on SB attempts, 18:8 K:BB in 92 AB.
It only took 15 games for Tucker to show that he was ready for a promotion to High-A earlier this season and he is still young for the level, despite missing a year with a torn labrum. It's a testament to how talented he is that an injury like that hasn't put him behind the developmental curve, but it wouldn't be surprising if he continued to struggle against Florida State League pitching as he adjusts to this challenging new level. Tucker may struggle to crack the top-200 prospect rankings prior to next season, but he is a legitimate breakout candidate in 2017.
Scott Kingery, 2B, Clearwater (Phillies): .293/.364/.423, three HR, two 3B, 26 2B, 22-for-26 on SB attempts, 46:27 K:BB in 300 AB.
His 26 doubles easily leads the league and his success rate on the basepaths gives hope to him at least offering double-digit stolen base totals at the highest level. Second base prospects are always tricky to evaluate as they are by nature flawed, having already moved down the defensive spectrum from shortstop. The former Arizona Wildcat was taken by the Phillies in the second round last year and that is starting to look like an excellent selection. It's important not to overreact to what Kingery has done at High-A as a 22-year-old, but he is starting to look like a top-10 second base prospect in the game, although that's admittedly not saying much.
Wuilmer Becerra, OF, St. Lucie (Mets): .323/.355/.406, one HR, 15 2B, 6-for-6 on SB attempts, 45:9 K:BB in 217 AB.
Becerra has hit at every stop since 2014 while showcasing a solid approach, but this year the power numbers have really taken a hit. Last year he hit nine homers in 118 games at Low-A but this year his ISO is down to .086 from .134 in 2015. At six-foot-four and 190 pounds, Becerra always projected to be a middle of the order threat in time and last year felt like the beginning of his power finally coming around, but now it looks like he has taken a step back in that department. There are still enough encouraging signs not to give up on him eventually tapping into that raw power in games, but he is no longer a top-200 prospect.
Aristides Aquino, OF, Daytona (Reds): .284/.345/.483, 10 HR, seven 3B, 14 2B, 7-for-12 on SB attempts, 68:23 K:BB in 292 AB.
Aquino missed a good chunk of 2015 with a broken wrist and he struggled after returning. However, in 2016 he has made up for lost time, showing excellent plate skills and the power/speed combination that put him on the map in Rookie ball in 2014. Aquino has passed the more heralded Phillip Ervin as the most appealing outfield prospect in the Reds organization after Jesse Winker. He's not quite a top-200 prospect, but if he keeps going at this pace he could finish the year with that distinction.
LaMonte Wade, OF, Fort Myers (Twins): .364/.385/.545, two 2B, 3:0 K:BB in 11 AB.
The 22-year-old outfielder more than earned a promotion from Low-A earlier this year, slashing .280/.410/.396 with a 27:44 K:BB in 56 games in the Midwest League. He's still a little too old to just now be getting to High-A so he's not worth owning in most formats, but he has certainly emerged as someone worth watching in the Twins' system going forward. In fact, his numbers at Low-A look awfully similar to what Anthony Alford registered in the first half of last season at Low-A before getting a promotion to the Florida State League.
OTHERS OF NOTE:
Abiatal Avelino, 2B/SS, Tampa (Yankees): .273/.328/.396, six HR, two 3B, 14 2B, 19-for-31 on SB attempts, 50:23 K:BB in 293 AB.
Carlos Tocci, OF, Clearwater (Phillies): .269/.325/.343, two HR, two 3B, 12 2B, 11-for-17 on SB attempts, 43:23 K:BB in 297 AB.
Zac Shepherd, 3B, Lakeland (Tigers): .186/.285/.320, seven HR, one 3B, 10 2B, 92:32 K:BB in 247 AB.
Clint Coulter, OF, Brevard County (Brewers): .239/.303/.338, four HR, one 3B, seven 2B, 44:13 K:BB in 213 AB.
Jhoan Urena, 3B, St. Lucie (Mets): .215/.278/.325, four HR, two 3B, 11 2B, 44:22 K:BB in 246 AB.
