This article is part of our Pitching 3D series.
The top of the pitcher pyramid has been decimated by injury and ineffectiveness. The best pitcher in the game, Clayton Kershaw, contributed 121 masterful innings before his back flared up, an ailment that may cost him the rest of the season. Top-end pitchers such as Chris Sale and Jake Arrieta are in the midst of seasons while missing key components of last year's dominance, with campaigns that have been excellent yet potentially considered disappointing from a fantasy perspective. Noah Syndergaard hasn't been dominant for nearly two months, pitching with bone spurs in his elbow that raise the risk factor of his rest-of-season value. Some of last season's studs, such as David Price or Chris Archer, are having career-worst campaigns that lend little confidence towards their respective performances down the stretch. There are also innings limits to contend with, as pitchers such as Jose Fernandez are likely to be unplugged around the time that rosters expand in September, effectively cutting their fantasy impact in half.
With two months left in the season, pitchers have 10-11 starts remaining. This is why pitchers who are currently on bad stretches get knocked down a rung or two on the ladder, because even if it only takes 2-3 starts to get back to normal levels of dominance, that represents 20-30 percent of the pitcher's remaining value. Some leagues still have time left before the trade deadline, and for those with a few minutes still on the trade clock, let's compare the few aces
The top of the pitcher pyramid has been decimated by injury and ineffectiveness. The best pitcher in the game, Clayton Kershaw, contributed 121 masterful innings before his back flared up, an ailment that may cost him the rest of the season. Top-end pitchers such as Chris Sale and Jake Arrieta are in the midst of seasons while missing key components of last year's dominance, with campaigns that have been excellent yet potentially considered disappointing from a fantasy perspective. Noah Syndergaard hasn't been dominant for nearly two months, pitching with bone spurs in his elbow that raise the risk factor of his rest-of-season value. Some of last season's studs, such as David Price or Chris Archer, are having career-worst campaigns that lend little confidence towards their respective performances down the stretch. There are also innings limits to contend with, as pitchers such as Jose Fernandez are likely to be unplugged around the time that rosters expand in September, effectively cutting their fantasy impact in half.
With two months left in the season, pitchers have 10-11 starts remaining. This is why pitchers who are currently on bad stretches get knocked down a rung or two on the ladder, because even if it only takes 2-3 starts to get back to normal levels of dominance, that represents 20-30 percent of the pitcher's remaining value. Some leagues still have time left before the trade deadline, and for those with a few minutes still on the trade clock, let's compare the few aces who remain in the deck. This is how I would rank the best pitchers still standing for the stretch run of the fantasy season.
1. Stephen Strasburg
Stras is the frontrunner for the National League Cy Young award, with elite numbers in all four categories that a starting pitcher can impact, and his schedule down the stretch gives him an advantage over the rest of the field. Teams play a lot of games within the division down the stretch, and for the Nationals that means several series against the Braves and Phillies, the two worst-hitting teams in baseball. Strasburg likely has 11 starts left, up to five of which could be against one of those two weak-hitting ball clubs. He has an easy schedule remaining, with his most challenging opponents being an interleague game at Baltimore and a home start against the Giants. He even dodges Coors Field, lucking into a pair of starts against the Braves that bookend the team's road trip to Denver. His teammate is not quite so lucky…
2. Max Scherzer
Scherzer is set to start the first game of the three-game set at Coors Field on Aug. 15, and he misses the first series against the Braves because his next turn in the rotation lines up with a two-game set against the Indians, with the right-hander scheduled to start Tuesday's game against Trevor Bauer. Scherzer will still get 3-4 starts against the Braves-Phillies combination, so roughly one-third of his remaining games will involve premium matchups. The race for NL Cy Young is led by the two Nats, and with Kershaw on the shelf indefinitely, these two have a clear path to out-duel each other for the hardware, piling up fantasy stats in all four categories. Just cover your eyes when he pitches in Coors. He has started to get the homers under control, with just four allowed over his last seven starts, and keeping the baseball in the yard has helped Scherzer to a 1.46 ERA over that stretch.
3. Madison Bumgarner
Bumgarner has the two Nats beat in the ERA category, but with Bummer coming off his worst start of the season (against a light-hitting Philly offense) and a tougher schedule to boot, he falls behind on the rest-of-season expectations. He will have one start that is either at Coors to face the Rockies or at Wrigley to face the Cubs, but he won't have to face both. He might have one or two starts against light-hitting opponents Atlanta and San Diego, but neither is guaranteed and he has a number of solid lineups on his remaining schedule. That said, Bumgarner has a history of getting stronger as the season wears on, and the southpaw certainly has it in him to overcome any opponent-related hurdles that might stand in his way. It's not a coincidence that the top three pitchers for rest-of-season value are in the National League.
4. Chris Sale
Sale was up to his old tricks in his last start, striking out 10 Tigers over eight innings of two-run baseball, though his weak supporting cast failed to provide the runs for a win. It was the first time all season that Sale had cracked double-digit strikeouts in a game, something that he accomplished 13 times last season (including one stretch of eight starts in a row). Sale is actually 0-2 over his last three starts despite posting a 1.64 ERA in 22.0 innings, but that's an anomaly in a season where Sale has a 14-5 record for a sub-.500 team. He appears to be emerging from a rough six-week stretch that saw a 5.56 ERA and 12 of his 18 homers leave the yard over the span of nine games, and though the expectations need to be tempered relative to the strikeout rate, this is still a K-per-inning pitcher who can be a difference-maker in the other three categories.
5. Corey Kluber
The rest of the Cleveland staff is going down like flies, with Carlos Carrasco coming off his worst start of the season and Danny Salazar shelved with pain in his throwing elbow, but Kluber will likely stick around to reap the advantage of a soft schedule the rest of the way. He probably has 11 starts left, of which his only tough assignment is a game at Texas at the end of August. Otherwise, he gets to face the lesser offenses of the AL West and AL Central. Of course, with Kluber the risk is in his tendency for self-implosion, dropping blow-up starts once or twice a month, though he is currently on a nice four-start string with a 1.24 ERA and 31:6 K:BB ratio in 29 innings, including at least seven innings and seven or more strikeouts in each start. There's no reason why he should suddenly lose it, but recent history tells us that there will be some bumps despite the easy road to the finish line.
6. Jake Arrieta
Arrieta hasn't been himself over the past month, with a 5.45 ERA and 32:14 K:BB ratio over 36.1 innings in his last six starts. Compounding the issue is that he was getting pummeled by mediocre lineups such as the Pirates, Reds, White Sox and Mets. His single-game K-count has topped out at eight strikeouts during that stretch, and the high level of walks have been present all season, as last year's 5.5 percent walk rate has risen to 9.0 percent this year. He certainly has the capacity to reel off another string of dominance, and the Cubs' offense will buffer his wins total in the meantime, but each start that it takes Arrieta to rediscover his magic knocks another 10 percent off his remaining value. As far as his remaining schedule goes, he gets to dodge Coors Field, instead starting in the before-and-after series versus the Lucroy-less Brewers and the Kemp-less Padres. However, Arrieta does likely have three more starts remaining against the division-rival Cardinals and their own high-powered offense, potentially adding another dent to his value.
7. Jacob deGrom
Similar to Strasburg and Scherzer, deGrom gets the benefit of facing NL East opponents down the stretch, with up to five (but probably four) of his remaining 11 starts coming against Philadelphia or Atlanta. He has one game against the Cardinals that is counterbalanced by a vacation against San Diego. DeGrom is currently on his best stretch of the season, and save for a five-run hiccup in less than four innings against the Marlins three starts ago, the other four of his last five starts have been excellent, each involved 7.0 or more frames with zero runs allowed, including six or more Ks and just one walk in each contest. The right-hander is hitting his stride at a time when the Mets are in dire need to quality innings, with Matt Harvey done for the season, Syndergaard dealing with the bone spurs and Steven Matz having a rough time pitching through bone spurs of his own.
8. Johnny Cueto
Cueto immediately follows Madison Bumgarner in the Giants' rotation, but Cueto's remaining schedule of opponents might look a bit different. For starters, where Bumgarner likely gets to avoid starting at altitude, Cueto might have to face the Rockies in Colorado, though those games are a month out so it doesn't take much to throw off expectation. He also has up to three games left against the Dodgers and is scheduled for tough matchups against the Cardinals and Orioles, similar to Mad Bum, but Cueto lacks his teammate's value in a vacuum. He does deserve his lofty ranking on the rest-of-season scale, though, given the lack of other quality options throughout the league. Ranking Cueto this high on the rest-of-season list surprised me..
The Wild Card: Yu Darvish
If there's one pitcher in baseball who has the capacity to do Fern-like things down the stretch, it's Darvish. At the same time, I wouldn't be surprised if another injury cropped up or the Rangers shut him down to save him for the playoffs. Texas is letting the leash out slowly with regard to his pitching count, with a progression that has stayed within a 90-95-pitch range while increasing in each of his last four starts. He has a ridiculous 54 strikeouts in just 38.1 innings on the season. The Rangers have an upcoming series at Coors Field but Darvish is not scheduled to start, as most of his remaining games are against weak AL West opponents (or those that lead the league in batter strikeouts), and Texas has a restocked lineup that should provide plenty of run support. He wraps up the season against Milwaukee and/or Tampa Bay, offenses that were depleted by the trade deadline. There's plenty of risk here, but there's a non-zero chance that Darvish has the greatest fantasy impact of any starter down the stretch.
