Baseball Draft Kit: Picks & Pans

If I never wrote for the RotoWire magazine, it would still be my favorite preseason fantasy mag because of its late deadlines. The mag will always be the freshest on your newsstand in February because the staff at RotoWire gives us December deadlines to complete our articles. This is important in making picks for the following season, because the offseason player market -- and especially the Winter Meetings -- can change the opportunities for dozens of players.

This year's picks and pans will emphasize, though not exclusively, players whose situation changed due to transactions through the meetings in Maryland. Talent matters, but when it comes to fantasy baseball, a clear path to playing time and a specific role is everything. Thanks to RotoWire, I get to use the latest information possible to make these calls, all to the benefit of your fantasy teams.

PICKS

Mauricio Cabrera, RP

After all that, the first name up is a player whose situation was actually made worse in the fall, when Jim Johnson signed a two-year deal that should allow him to start 2017 as the Braves' closer. While Johnson will have the ninth inning to start the year, Cabrera is the long-term play in that bullpen. He averaged 100.1 mph with his fastball in 38 innings last year, getting swings and misses on almost 12 percent of his deliveries. When batters did hit that heater, they hit the ball on the ground half the time. Cabrera will pick up double-digit saves in 2017, and 100 saves before the decade is out.

Alex Dickerson, OF

Bad teams are a useful generator of cheap fantasy stats, and no team will be as bad in 2017 as the Padres. Dickerson, an old rookie at 26, showed that his huge minor-league numbers weren't just a hitters-park mirage. He had 10 homers and five steals in about half a season of playing time, with effective management of the strike zone (25:44 BB:K). Petco Park has become a good place for flyball hitters, and Dickerson got the ball in the air 40 percent of the time last season.

Randal Grichuk, OF

The Cards' big free-agent splash came in the form of Dexter Fowler, whose leadoff skills will fit nicely atop the lineup. Having committed $82 million to a player who doesn't hit for big power increases the need for Grichuk to bring a big stick. After a breakout 2015, Grichuk's problems making contact dropped him to a .240 batting average and a midseason demotion. Even in his lost year, he roped 24 homers and had nearly 70 runs and RBI. With Fowler, Aledmys Diaz and Matt Carpenter batting up top, some Cardinal is going to drive in 115 runs. Grichuk is my pick.

Nate Jones, RP

The Pale Hose finally picked a lane, trading away Chris Sale and Adam Eaton at the Winter Meetings to kick off what should be a three-year rebuild. You can expect incumbent closer David Robertson to be gone by Opening Day, clearing a path for Jones to take over as the saves guy. Jones had a 30 percent strikeout rate and an 80:15 K:BB in his first full, healthy season since 2013. Even bad teams get saves: the six last-place teams in 2016 averaged 36 saves apiece.

Shelby Miller, SP

Miller's collapse was one of the big mysteries of 2016, explained only in part by changes to his pitch mix -- fewer two-seamers, which had been his bread and butter in 2015 -- and mechanics. He lost velocity and had absolutely no command of his four-seam fastball; it was a ball, or it was in the launch zone. Miller is just 26, and was coming off three years of steady work as a No. 2/No. 3 starter. This is a bet on the established skill set and track record. For later drafters, pay attention to his repertoire, especially the use of his two-seam fastball, in March.

Jose Peraza, SS

Injuries to Zack Cozart and Billy Hamilton opened up playing time for Peraza, who stole 21 bases in just 72 games played. Steals are a precious commodity in today's fantasy game, and as a prospect Peraza was good for 35 to 60 a year. He also hit .321 in the majors, but his strikeout rate jumped enough to be a concern. Peraza has no power and he doesn't walk, so he will have to maintain a good contact rate to hit .280, which is the bare minimum he needs to be a valuable player. If the Reds, as has been rumored, trade away Cozart, the door is open for Peraza to swipe 40.

Eduardo Rodriguez, SP

What was supposed to be a breakout year for Rodriguez was derailed in the spring by a knee injury that pushed his debut back to May 31. Six starts later he was back in Pawtucket. After he returned for good in July, though, he was excellent: a 3.24 ERA in 14 starts, just shy of a 25 percent strikeout rate, six quality starts and a number of others in which he was lifted just short of one. The skills have always been there, a rotation job is now available and the health should be there. Rodriguez takes his star turn this summer.

Addison Russell, SS

Russell has been the shortstop for two playoff teams, including a World Champion, and he turned 23 just a few weeks before you read this. His real-world value has exceeded his fantasy value, but that's about to change. Russell has already shown power -- 21 homers -- and a willingness to draw walks --- 49 last year. The contact rate has dragged down all his numbers, but again, he's been 21 and 22 in a league with all-time high strikeout rates. Look for the contact and power to progress in 2017, with a .280 batting average and 25 homers well within reach. The Cubs' lineup promises runs and RBI in droves as well.

PANS

Last year, I beat up Mike Trout a bit in the following section, a decision that looked terrible when Trout started running again -- 30 steals in 37 attempts -- and somehow scored 123 runs and drove in 100 in the Angels' wretched lineup. Let's see what other award-winning stars we can spur to new heights!

Jake Arrieta, SP

(What, you thought I was kidding?) Arrieta pushed Clayton Kershaw for the title of "best pitcher in the game" for about two-thirds of a season, stretching into May of 2016. The improved command that had made Arrieta a Cy Young Award winner deserted him, and he went on to walk 76 men, hit six and lead the NL in wild pitches with 16. He made the All-Star team and earned down-ballot Cy Young votes, but it's hard to not think we've seen the best of Arrieta, who's thrown nearly 470 innings the last two seasons -- about what he'd thrown from 2011 through 2014. I would avoid him in mixed leagues, and rate him lower than most in NL-only formats.

Brian Dozier, 2B

Dozier has had good power for a middle infielder for a while, but no one saw 42 homers coming, especially not after he started 2016 with five homers through the end of May. He'll be 30 in May, and has racked up nearly 5,000 innings at second base over the past four years. Some decline is inevitable, and the possibility of a big HR/FB regression makes Dozier a stay-away for me.

Gary Sanchez, C

If Dozier is a stay-away due to likely HR/FB regression, we need to mark Sanchez with those skull-and-crossbones images they use in cartoons to signal "poison." Two out of every five flyballs Sanchez hit last year left the yard; the only player to ever approach that in a full season dating back to 2002 was Ryan Howard, at 39.5 percent. Just 10 players have had more than 30 percent of their flyballs go for homers. In two years at Triple-A, Sanchez hit 16 homers in 459 plate appearances. At Double-A, he hit 27 in 841 plate appearances. Even accounting for development, Sanchez looks like a 20-25 homer guy in the majors; he was going in the third round in some offseason drafts. Let someone else have him.

Kyle Schwarber, OF

The hype on Schwarber died in the outfield of Chase Field in early April, and was revived on a crisp fall night in Cleveland almost seven months later. Schwarber's return from a severe knee injury to contribute to a Cubs' World Series win will have the noise turned up to 10, but be realistic: he's a positionless (outfield only, may never catch again) bat in the non-DH league with a 160-game teammate at first base. He hasn't hit lefties so far in the majors. He plays for a team that won a title thanks in part to a historically great defense, and one that will carry three true outfielders plus Ben Zobrist, squeezing his playing time. Schwarber may eventually play 155 games and hit 45 homers, but it won't be in 2017, and it probably won't be as a Cubs outfielder.

This article appears in the 2017 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide. You can order a copy here.