This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
There was an excellent article in The Ringer the final day of March showing how the data from spring training pointing to the new baseball may quite possibly be much ado about nothing. The article quoted both Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell commenting on how different the ball feels this year and that the seams were thicker. The article cited the memo that stated the new baseball should reduce ball flight by 1 to 2 feet on balls hit 375 feet or more. The Athletic's concurrent work calculated that the decreased distance would reduce home run rates by about 5 percent.
The article went on to show how the HR/Contact (HR/(AB-K)) has risen each year and that just once in recent years has the spring data been higher than the regular season data:
The theory goes baseball first used up all of the old baseballs before rolling out the new batch this spring, and the drag coefficient data backs that up. The piece closes quoting the median hit distance for baseballs this spring was 4 feet farther than in the 2020 season and the median fly ball distance was 10 feet longer than the 2020 season.
It is a well-researched article, but I also fear it was a bit premature as five games into the regular season, the data is showing that we may be in for the power outage we all feared once the news broke of the changes to the baseball.
I have written about this topic before,
There was an excellent article in The Ringer the final day of March showing how the data from spring training pointing to the new baseball may quite possibly be much ado about nothing. The article quoted both Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell commenting on how different the ball feels this year and that the seams were thicker. The article cited the memo that stated the new baseball should reduce ball flight by 1 to 2 feet on balls hit 375 feet or more. The Athletic's concurrent work calculated that the decreased distance would reduce home run rates by about 5 percent.
The article went on to show how the HR/Contact (HR/(AB-K)) has risen each year and that just once in recent years has the spring data been higher than the regular season data:
The theory goes baseball first used up all of the old baseballs before rolling out the new batch this spring, and the drag coefficient data backs that up. The piece closes quoting the median hit distance for baseballs this spring was 4 feet farther than in the 2020 season and the median fly ball distance was 10 feet longer than the 2020 season.
It is a well-researched article, but I also fear it was a bit premature as five games into the regular season, the data is showing that we may be in for the power outage we all feared once the news broke of the changes to the baseball.
I have written about this topic before, noting that the first 5-10 days of the season tend to be a very good indicator of what is in store for us. The past few years have given us the following HR/PA figures in the first 10 games of the season:
Season | Early HR/PA | Final HR/PA |
|---|---|---|
2016 | 36.2 | 32.9 |
2017 | 32.5 | 30.4 |
2018 | 36.1 | 33.1 |
2019 | 29.3 | 27.5 |
2020 | 30.2 | 28.9 |
The rate improves within the season as the weather warms and the quality of pitching diminishes throughout the season, but note how much higher the early rate was the previous two seasons compared to the first three, as well as the final fate in each season.
Use that as your context when you consider baseball has seen a home run ever 34.5 plate appearances to begin the 2021 season. The 2018 season got off to a similar slow start and saw the season close with an 8.5 percent reduction in home runs from the 2017 season. That rate of reduction from the 2019 season home run total would give us 576 fewer home runs:
- 2016: 5,610 home runs
- 2017: 6,105 home runs
- 2018: 5,585 home runs
- 2019: 6,776 home runs
- 2021: 6,200 home runs (projected)
That total would still be the second-highest total of the last five full seasons, but would still be a reduction from what we experienced in our last full season of baseball.
The new ball effect is helping 2018 and 2021 align rather nicely in terms of home run indicators with an important divergence at the end of the table.
Season | HR | PA/HR | HR/FB | HRDist | MaxHRDst | RunsViaHR% | RBIViaHR% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 109 | 32.1 | 12% | 401 | 459 | 42% | 44% |
2017 | 105 | 34.4 | 11% | 396 | 451 | 44% | 46% |
2018 | 139 | 35.2 | 10% | 398 | 460 | 40% | 42% |
2019 | 162 | 31.3 | 11% | 402 | 482 | 42% | 45% |
2020 | 138 | 30.0 | 11% | 399 | 483 | 43% | 44% |
2021 | 131 | 34.5 | 10% | 398 | 471 | 36% | 39% |
To date, the league run production associated with home runs has seen a sharp decline as both the rate of runs scored and runs driven in are the lowest we have ever seen them this early in the season. I understand some of you are staring at your team ERA's and scoffing at this idea, but that is how the season is playing out so far.
BaseballHQ's Ryan Bloomfield noted that the StatCast data this season is higher than it has ever been:
Pretty wild given the off-the-bat stuff, which is stronger than ever pic.twitter.com/zisp1Urs7l
— Ryan Bloomfield (@RyanBHQ) April 6, 2021
Those rates would lead us to believe the ball should be doing more, but one can also conclude that the higher seams on the baseball are in fact providing more drag on the baseball than anticipated.
The baseballs are going high, they're going far, but they are not leaving the yard with the regularity we have come to expect in recent seasons. This trend bears close scrutiny the next week or two because this data point does not need too much to become a reality in the league. Fewer home runs will put a premium on on-base hitters and high-contact hitters to drive them in at a time when the game continues to see ever-increasing strikeout rates. This, plus the re-introduction of pitchers hitting, could lead to some incredible pitching numbers in the National League this season.
