Payne's Perspective: Super Bowl Props

Every year I take the time to put out some of the prop bets for the Super Bowl that grabbed my attention. Note that these are just for fun and entertainment purposes. I'll do my best to come up with a justification for my picks and would love to hear any thoughts or other prop bets I might have missed.

Seattle, Pick'em

I don't feel great about this pick as I see a close game, meaning that it's hard to feel overly strong about either team. As a side note, I had a pretty strong feeling about the Seahawks a year ago and even picked them to win by 10 even though they were more than a field goal underdog. Some of my thinking here has to do with Vegas coming out initially with "a wrong line" after the Conference Championship games. New England opened as high as a three-point underdog, which everyone immediately pounded down to New England giving a point. This line was likely due to the perception that the Seahawks were "lucky" to beat the Packers while the Patriots easily dismantled the Colts. While this was perceived as "a wrong line," will it still be considered that if Seattle wins and covers? This pick comes down to me trusting the Seattle defense (who, I know, doesn't play as good away from home) more than trusting the New England defense. I'm curious to see how the Seahawks run the ball, especially if they game plan to run away from Vince Wolfork up the middle. It wouldn't surprise me if this game comes down to Rob Gronkowski and his likely matchup with Kam Chancellor.

Under 48

I feel even less sure about this, but I haven't heard anyone taking the under, and the over is always the more popular bet. If Seattle is going to win, it's likely to run the heck out of Marshawn Lynch, control the clock and keep Tom Brady off the field. Again, a weak feeling here, but it's what I'd take if forced to choose a side.

Tom Brady over .5 interceptions, -160

I probably would put X amount on this prop and put half of whatever X is on Brady over 1.5 interceptions (+190). Believe it or not, Brady has thrown at least one interception in eight of his last 10 games, and one of those interception-less games was against Buffalo Week 17 when he only attempted 16 passes and didn't play the whole game. The Seahawks have plenty of playmakers in their secondary, and it is likely Brady has to throw more than 30 times in this game.

LeGarrette Blount under 62.5 rushing yards

This seems like a low number considering Blount is coming off a 148-yard rushing performance. However, he only had three carries for a yard against the Ravens in the divisional round, a product of the game situation with the Patriots behind for the most part. I don't think he'll find the running lanes he found against the porous Colts defense, and ultimately one would have to think the Patriots put their trust in Tom Brady and let him air it out to win his fourth Super Bowl.

Brandon LaFell over 50.5 receiving yards

If the Patriots have a true "downfield threat," LaFell would have to be considered that guy. He's been consistently targeted by Brady the last two playoff games with six and seven targets in the two contests. Seattle's secondary has to be keyed on Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman, which likely will leave LaFell in single coverage. I can see a long 30-40 yard completion here and 2-3 more catches on intermediate sideline routes to push the total over.

Rob Gronkowski will score a touchdown, -165

This one seems too good to be true as Gronk has scored in five straight games. Seattle will be well aware of this, but the Patriots always seem to do a good job with their formations in getting him in one-on-one situations in the red zone. Tom Brady is roughly penciled in to throw two touchdowns, and if that happens it's tough to imagine Gronk not being on the receiving end of at least one.

Robert Turbin over 4 carries

Looking at Turbin's game logs, it seems this prop has a pretty safe floor. Outside of last week when the Seahawks played catchup, Turbin had carried the ball at least four times in 10 consecutive games. Keeping with the premise that the Seahawks will look to run the ball and control the clock, Turbin should at least get a push with four carries, spelling Marshawn Lynch.

Bill Belichick will smile on camera during the game, +130

If you think the Patriots are going win, this is almost an automatic wager. Belichick, if I remember correctly, was grinning ear to ear during the Patriots two Super Bowl wins at the end of the game. There's even the chance that he gets caught up in the heat of the moment during the game and cracks a grin, especially if he goes into the bag of tricks and is successful. This feels like it should be an even bet, so getting plus odds is an added bonus.

Coin Flip is heads

I'm totally kidding. If you actually bet on the coin flip you might want to join a support group and start regularly attending meetings.

Al Michaels will mention the point spread, total, odds on who wins or any prop bet during the game, -140

There are so many possibilities here it will be tough for Michaels not to mention something. It's worth noting that the spread could go off as a pick 'em for the first time in Super Bowl history and that itself should be mentioned. This prop would be along the lines of -1000 if Brent Musberger was doing the game instead of Michaels.

Marshawn Lynch will not grabs his crotch after a touchdown, -300

Lynch has been warned about everything from his cleats to his interviews to the hand placement on his own body. First off, he has to score a touchdown, which is a -200 proposition. So there's a fair chance he doesn't even score, making this a moot point. I'd be shocked if he grabs himself if he scores as it'll be an easy 15-yard penalty. Unless there's a blowout and he scores late, this seems like a very safe proposition, albeit at bad odds.

The game will go to overtime, +800

If I really believe this game will be close, why not dump a little something on this wager? There's a first time for everything, and both coaches in this game understand game management/situations. It wouldn't be a shocker to see another late field goal by either team send this to an extra frame.

Katy Perry will be mentioned over 1.5 times in the first half

This seems like an obvious one to me, it'll be plugged at least once and more likely multiple times. I really thought 3.5 should have been the number here.

Tony Moeaki will score the first touchdown, 50/1

There's a good chance the Seahawks get the ball inside the five and the Patriots load up the box. The perfect call would be to run play-action and let Moeaki get loose in the end zone. Many would go with Luke Willson here, but Moeaki is the better value. Plus, Vegas would make a killing if it was Moeaki and not Marshawn Lynch or LeGarrette Blount who gets the first touchdown.

Again, any good props I missed? Agree or disagree with any of my leans? Let me know in the comments section.