This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
You know that part of the Wolf of Wall Street about selling the pen? It's presented as a riddle, or at least a philosophical, trick question with no truly meaningful answer. It's still a riddle much more easily answered, and the pen an item more easily sold, than a Sunday night primetime between the Raiders and Steelers. There's nothing to sell here. It's just a bad game. Given the absence of meaning otherwise, let's skip to the showdown considerations. The over/under is 43.0, with the Raiders favored at home by 3.0.
QUARTERBACKS
Although the Steelers defense played well against Deshaun Watson in Week 2 the Pittsburgh defense still appears vulnerable. Jimmy Garoppolo ($10200 DK, $14500 FD) would be in a good spot here, for instance, if the Steelers play more like they did in Week 1, when cornerback Patrick Peterson put on a clinic for poor cornerback play. Garoppolo could use a good game here after a slow start to the season, including an unacceptable three interceptions on 50 pass attempts.
Kenny Pickett ($9800 DK, $14000 FD) won't be starting in the NFL for too much longer, but luckily the Raiders defense might be the worst in the league. The Raiders have one good corner (Nate Hobbs), and they tend to move him into the slot in nickel formations. That means any time the Raiders play nickel they leave the Steelers free to match up WR1 George Pickens against any of the lesser Raiders corners. Pickett is also
You know that part of the Wolf of Wall Street about selling the pen? It's presented as a riddle, or at least a philosophical, trick question with no truly meaningful answer. It's still a riddle much more easily answered, and the pen an item more easily sold, than a Sunday night primetime between the Raiders and Steelers. There's nothing to sell here. It's just a bad game. Given the absence of meaning otherwise, let's skip to the showdown considerations. The over/under is 43.0, with the Raiders favored at home by 3.0.
QUARTERBACKS
Although the Steelers defense played well against Deshaun Watson in Week 2 the Pittsburgh defense still appears vulnerable. Jimmy Garoppolo ($10200 DK, $14500 FD) would be in a good spot here, for instance, if the Steelers play more like they did in Week 1, when cornerback Patrick Peterson put on a clinic for poor cornerback play. Garoppolo could use a good game here after a slow start to the season, including an unacceptable three interceptions on 50 pass attempts.
Kenny Pickett ($9800 DK, $14000 FD) won't be starting in the NFL for too much longer, but luckily the Raiders defense might be the worst in the league. The Raiders have one good corner (Nate Hobbs), and they tend to move him into the slot in nickel formations. That means any time the Raiders play nickel they leave the Steelers free to match up WR1 George Pickens against any of the lesser Raiders corners. Pickett is also an adept runner, which he hasn't really had the chance to display yet in 2023. Pickett must and should play better in this game than he did the first two weeks.
RUNNING BACKS
It's been a nightmare season for Najee Harris ($8800 DK, $13000 FD), who reportedly might lose usage to Jaylen Warren ($6400 DK, $10000 FD). The Steelers offense has been dead because of team management and their decision to back Pickett, not anything under Harris' control. This is a really good matchup against a busted defense – whoever gets the carries will likely produce.
Josh Jacobs ($10800 DK, $12500 FD) is lucky enough to play for a team that doesn't yank his playing time in favor of his backups, so he easily projects for the biggest running back workload in the contest. Granted, it's been a difficult start for Jacobs through two weeks, but obviously the guy is going to produce better going forward after totaling just 46 rushing yards through two games. Jacobs has been effective as a receiver, turning nine targets into seven receptions for 74 yards, so maybe Jacobs will be able to put it all together here. Ameer Abdullah ($200 DK, $7500 FD) still poaches a handful of passing-down snaps, while Zamir White ($2000 DK, $6000 FD) has played exactly five snaps in both of the first two games.
WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS
Davante Adams ($11600 DK, $15500 FD) should be in a good spot here, because the Steelers pass defense hasn't looked good to this point. Adams is much more likely to see a limiting effect from fellow wideout Jakobi Meyers ($8600 DK, $11500 FD) than he is the Steelers defense. Meyers was red-hot before suffering a concussion in Week 1, so it wouldn't be surprising if he managed to outproduce Adams in this game, especially if the Steelers sell out to stop Adams. Hunter Renfrow ($3000 DK, $8000 FD) has to be among the league leaders in most dollars paid per snap, though the Raiders haven't shown any intention of featuring him on offense. Renfrow caught only one pass through two games, even with Meyers missing one of them. Austin Hooper ($2400 DK, $7000 FD) split the tight end reps almost evenly with Michael Mayer ($200 DK, $6500 FD) last week, leaving just 17 snaps for Hooper and 15 for Mayer. Both players will likely play more snaps in this game, but it's a small pie they're splitting, making them both hit-or-miss.
George Pickens ($9200 DK, $11000 FD) has the bull's eye on him but through two games the Raiders have almost always used Nate Hobbs in the slot. Hobbs is the Raiders' only good corner, and he'd pose a challenge to Pickens when matched up. If Hobbs is in the slot, though, then the Steelers just need to line Pickens up outside to keep him away from Hobbs. Hobbs would more so be the problem of Allen Robinson ($5000 DK, $9500 FD) in this case, and to a lesser extent Calvin Austin ($4200 DK, $7500 FD). Pickett's struggles have been a real fantasy killer to Pat Freiermuth ($6200 DK, $8000 FD), who only has two catches for five yards despite being one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the league. The Steelers need to get him going here. Darnell Washington ($400 DK, $5000 FD) seems locked into a 20-snap role, but he has yet to see a target.
KICKERS
Daniel Carlson ($3400 DK, $9000 FD) is one of the very best kickers in the league, reliably making 90 percent of his kicks or more despite kicking with volume and distance. Carlson has elite range – he made 11 of 13 attempts from 50 yards or more last year – and he's due for a field goal spree after seeing just two opportunities in the first two weeks. The Steelers offense has a habit of leaving its defense on short fields, so Carlson could be in a good spot here.
Chris Boswell ($3600 DK, $8500 FD) is a very good kicker in his own right, especially from long range. While Boswell can't match Carlson's overall accuracy, Boswell can make long-range shots about as well as anyone. Boswell has made both of his 2023 field goal attempts, and both were from beyond 50. Boswell made 15 of the 18 attempts from beyond 50 in the two prior years, too, The dysfunction of the Steelers offense limits Boswell's opportunities, but he doesn't need to get as close as most kickers.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The Steelers ($5600 DK, $9000 FD) are road underdogs and their offense will likely hang them out to dry, but T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith is as strong of a pass-rush tandem as any in the league. Jimmy Garoppolo has yet to take a sack in 2023, but he also has three interceptions on just 50 attempts. Garoppolo is due for some sacks. What's less clear is whether he's going to get his turnover issues under control. He might not, and if he doesn't the Steelers defense could swing the upset.
The Raiders ($4000 DK, $8500 FD) doesn't seem to have much going for it. Scratch that – it definitely doesn't have much going for it. For this week, though, they've got Kenny Pickett. It's difficult to put a number value on just how fortunate a defense is to face Pickett, but it's safe to say it can't get much easier. The Steelers have 33 points through two weeks, and that figure of 16.5 points per game could very well be similar to the figure the Steelers have at the end of the season.
