NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Week 7

Washington (+4.5) at Philadelphia, 48.5 o/u – Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

The Story: Kirk Cousins has finally started to play like he's in a contract year, mustering a 7:1 TD:INT in his last three games and that's without much chemistry with Terrelle Pryor, or a healthy Jordan Reed. The Eagles, meanwhile, look like the class of the NFC East, if not the entire conference after Aaron Rodgers' injury, combining a stingy defense with a strong O-line that's helped LeGarrette Blount to a career-high (and, let's be honest, unsustainable) 5.6 YPC. They've already walked into Washington to spank their division rivals in Week 1, and other than the fact that this is 2017, so wacky results are de rigueur, it's hard to see the Eagles getting grounded.

The Skinny:
•2017 WAS offense: 23.4 PPG (14th), 122.8 rushing yds/gm (10th), 266.8 passing yds/gm (7th), eight sacks allowed (4th), nine turnovers (T-19th)
•2017 PHI offense: 27.5 PPG (6th), 132.5 rushing yds/gm (5th), 164.0 passing yds/gm (9th), 16 sacks allowed (T-18th), seven turnovers (T-11th)
•2017 WAS defense: 22.6 PPG allowed (19th), 88.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (8th), 248.8 passing yds/gm allowed (T-20th), 15 sacks (T-12th), eight turnovers (T-12th)
•2017 PHI defense: 20.3 PPG allowed (T-9th), 65.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (1st), 289.0 passing yds/gm allowed (28th), 14 sacks (T-15th), 11 turnovers (T-4th)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 WAS, average score WAS 26-PHI 25, average margin of victory seven points. Only two of those games have been decided by more than one score, and the largest margin was only 14 points.
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: WAS, sixth against WR1s (minus 32.1 percent DVOA), third against WR2s (minus 40.5 percent DVOA), third against other WRs (minus27.5 percent DVOA); PHI, sixth against WR2s (minus 26.4 percent DVOA), ninth against RBs (minus 25.6 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: overcast, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Rob Kelley grinds out 50 yards, but does score. Cousins throws for 340 yards and three TDs, one each to Pryor, Reed and Josh Doctson, but he does get picked off twice. Blount gets held to 40 yards but Wendell Smallwood comes through with 80 combined yards and a touchdown. Carson Wentz throws for 310 yards and two scores of his own, finding Zach Ertz and Torrey Smith in the end zone and leading the Eagles into range for a game-winning Jake Elliott field goal inside the final minute. Eagles, 33-31

Tampa Bay (+3) at Buffalo, 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: Jameis Winston appears set to play despite his shoulder injury, but the Bucs' offense didn't appear much worse off with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center and isn't the team's problem anyway. The ability of the Tampa defense to make any opposition QB look great could be put to the test with Tyrod Taylor, though, given that he has no one but LeSean McCoy to throw to with Charles Clay still out and Jordan Matthews iffy.

The Skinny:
•2017 TB offense: 23.6 PPG (13th), 82.8 rushing yds/gm (30th), 309.8 passing yds/gm (2nd), nine sacks allowed (T-5th), six turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 BUF offense: 17.8 PPG (27th), 106.6 rushing yds/gm (17th), 182.0 passing yds/gm (29th), 18 sacks allowed (T-23rd), two turnovers (2nd)
•2017 TB defense: 24.2 PPG allowed (22nd), 101.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (12th), 308.8 passing yds/gm allowed (31st), six sacks (32nd), eight turnovers (T-12th)
•2017 BUF defense: 14.8 PPG allowed (1st), 87.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (7th), 248.8 passing yds/gm allowed (T-20th), 12 sacks (T-21st), 10 turnovers (T-6th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: TB, 26th against WR1s (25.8 percent DVOA), 32nd against other WRs (38.5 percent DVOA); BUF, fourth against WR2s (minus 34.5 percent DVOA), 1st against other WRs (minus 66.5 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Doug Martin rushes for 70 yards. Winston throws for less than 200 yards and no TDs before getting knocked out of the game again, with Fitzpatrick throwing for a touchdown to Mike Evans in relief. Shady breaks through for 130 combined yards and two scores, one on the ground and one through the air. Taylor throws for a season-high 240 yards and runs in another TD. Bills, 24-13

Baltimore (+5.5) at Minnesota, 39.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Ravens might not have the worst offense in the NFL, but by gum, they might have the dreariest. Who is there to get excited about in this crew? Nick Boyle? Michael Campanaro? Mind you, injuries have taken away most of the pizzazz from the Vikings' offense too, but if the Bruise-Colored Bowl turns into a defensive slugfest, that would seem to favor the home side.

The Skinny:
•2017 BAL offense: 19.0 PPG (24th), 129.5 rushing yds/gm (7th), 173.2 passing yds/gm (31st), 12 sacks allowed (13th), 12 turnovers (30th)
•2017 MIN offense: 20.3 PPG (19th), 117.2 rushing yds/gm (12th), 252.7 passing yds/gm (14th), nine sacks allowed (T-5th), six turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 BAL defense: 20.7 PPG allowed (11th), 141.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (30th), 203.8 passing yds/gm allowed (4th), 16 sacks (T-7th), 14 turnovers (T-2nd)
•2017 MIN defense: 17.2 PPG allowed (5th), 78.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (3rd), 235.3 passing yds/gm allowed (15th), 16 sacks (T-7th), eight turnovers (T-12th)
•Key injuries, BAL: WR Mike Wallace (back, questionable); WR Jeremy Maclin (shoulder, questionable); RB Terrance West (calf, out); TE Ben Watson (knee, questionable); CB Jimmy Smith (Achilles, questionable)
•Key injuries, MIN: QB Sam Bradford (knee, out); WR Stefon Diggs (groin, out)
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Joe Flacco throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Boyle, but gets picked off three times. Jerick McKinnon picks up 90 combined yards, while Latavius Murray adds 60 yards and a score. Case Keenum throws for 220 yards and TDs to Kyle Rudolph and Laquon Treadwell. Vikings, 27-10

N.Y. Jets (+3) at Miami, 38.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Jets are enough of a threat again that league officials had to overturn an Austin Seferian-Jenkins TD last week against the Pats on some nonsense, so that has to count as progress for the franchise, right? MIA-NYJ games are typically wacky anyway, but between these two particular iterations of the teams, in this season, anything from a 0-0 tie to both teams dropping 50 on each other seems within the realm of possibility.

The Skinny:
•2017 NYJ offense: 18.2 PPG (26th), 105.2 rushing yds/gm (18th), 234.2 passing yds/gm (22nd), 19 sacks allowed (T-26th), 11 turnovers (T-27th)
•2017 MIA offense: 12.2 PPG (32nd), 87.4 rushing yds/gm (27th), 171.4 passing yds.gm (32nd), 10 sacks allowed (T-8th), six turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 NYJ defense: 21.7 PPG allowed (T-13th), 138.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (28th), 225.3 passing yds/gm allowed (12th), seven sacks (31st), nine turnovers (T-9th)
•2017 MIA defense: 16.8 PPG allowed (3rd), 80.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (4th), 247.4 passing yds/gm allowed (19th), 12 sacks (T-21st), four turnovers (T-27th)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score MIA 22-NYJ 21, average margin of victory 13 points
•Jay Cutler career stats versus NYJ, four games: 3-1, 59.3 percent completion rate, 254.3 passing yds/gm, 8:3 TD:INT, 6.8 YPA, 89.2 QB rating
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, 16 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Bilal Powell leads the Jets' backfield with 70 combined yards and a score, while Matt Forte also gets into the end zone. Josh McCown throws for 280 yards and TDs to Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse. Jay Ajayi piles up 150 yards and two touchdowns. Cutler throws for 240 yards and a TD to Jarvis Landry. Dolphins, 30-28

Arizona (+3.5) at L.A. Rams, 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: Adrian Peterson would like you to know he's not dead, thank you very much. While the Bucs' defense deserves plenty of credit for his resuscitation, the Rams' front seven hasn't exactly been much better when it comes to slowing down opposition runners, so AP might not be done partying like it's 2012 just yet. If the Cards' o-line can't keep Aaron Donald and company out of Carson Palmer's face, though, what Peterson does may not matter all that much.

The Skinny:
•2017 ARI offense: 19.8 PPG (T-20th), 69.8 rushing yds/gm (32nd), 309.3 passing yds/gm (3rd), 21 sacks allowed (T-28th), nine turnovers (T-19th)
•2017 LAR offense: 29.8 PPG (1st), 116.0 rushing yds/gm (13th), 254.0 passing yds/gm (12th), nine sacks allowed (T-5th), 11 turnovers (T-27th)
•2017 ARI defense: 26.3 PPG allowed (28th), 90.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (9th), 263.3 passing yds/gm allowed (26th), 12 sacks (T-21st), six turnovers (T-22nd)
•2017 LAR defense: 23.0 PPG allowed (20th), 139.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (29th), 230.2 passing yds/gm allowed (13th), 20 sacks (2nd), 10 turnovers (T-6th)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score ARI 22-LAR 16, average margin of victory 14 points
•Carson Palmer career stats versus LAR, eight games: 5-3, 66.3 percent completion rate, 284.6 passing yds/gm, 10:7 TD:INT, 7.7 YPA, 90.7 QB rating
•Weather forecast: clear, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Peterson bangs out 70 yards and a TD. Palmer throws for a season-low 240 yards, getting picked off twice and sacked five times. Todd Gurley gallops for 130 combined yards and a score. Jared Goff throws for 270 yards and TDs to Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods. Rams, 30-10

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (+3), 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Jaguars' inability to get out of their own way remains their greatest talent, as the defense held the Rams' offense to only 13 points ... only for the special teams units to give up two TDs. The Colts are the only team in the AFC South below .500, but they're only one game back of the division lead and the only team who might get Andrew Luck back at some point, so they're got that going for them.

The Skinny:
•2017 JAC offense: 26.0 PPG (8th), 165.8 rushing yds/gm (1st), 178.0 passing yds/gm (30th), 10 sacks allowed (T-8th), six turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 IND offense: 19.8 PPG (T-20th), 97.5 rushing yds/gm (20th), 222.8 passing yds/gm (25th), 19 sacks allowed (T-26th), nine turnovers (T-19th)
•2017 JAC defense: 18.3 PPG allowed (7th), 145.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (31st), 189.0 passing yds/gm allowed (3rd), 23 sacks (1st), 16 turnovers (1st)
•2017 IND defense: 32.5 PPG allowed (32nd), 114.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (19th), 307.7 passing yds/gm allowed (30th), 12 sacks (T-21st), eight turnovers (T-12th)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 IND, average score IND 26-JAC 18, average margin of victory 16 points. Half of those games have been decided by 20 or more points.
•Key injuries, JAC: RB Leonard Fournette (ankle, questionable); WR Marqise Lee (knee, questionable)
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Fournette doesn't play, but Chris Ivory steps up with 110 combined yards and a score. Blake Bortles throws for a season-high 270 yards and TDs to Allen Hurns and Corey Grant. Marlon Mack leads the Colts' backfield with 60 yards. Jacoby Brissett throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off three times, with Jalen Ramsey returning one to the house. Jaguars 31-6

New Orleans at Green Bay (+5.5), 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: The loss of Aaron Rodgers really can't be overstated for the Packers. They go from a favorite to win a postseason bye in the NFC to a team that's going to struggle to even squeak into a wild-card spot. At least Brett Hundley gets a relatively soft matchup in his first career start, but he might need to come through with a big performance as Drew Brees hasn't been living down to his rep as a QB who struggles away from the Superdome.

The Skinny:
•2017 NO offense: 29.0 PPG (4th), 113.8 rushing yds/gm (14th), 264.2 passing yds/gm (8th), four sacks allowed (1st), three turnovers (3rd)
•2017 GB offense: 24.5 PPG (10th), 88.3 rushing yds/gm (26th), 157.0 passing yds/gm (10th), 23 sacks allowed (T-31st), eight turnovers (T-17th)
•2017 NO defense: 23.2 PPG allowed (21st), 100.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (11th), 290.6 passing yds/gm allowed (29th), 16 sacks (T-7th), nine turnovers (T-9th)
•2017 GB defense: 22.5 PPG allowed (18th), 119.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (24th), 221.7 passing yds/gm allowed (11th), 11 sacks (T-27th), 11 turnovers (T-4th)
•Drew Brees on the road in 2017, three games: 2-1, 72.9 percent completion rate, 259.7 passing yds/gm, 6:0 TD:INT, 7.3 YPA, 111.9 QB rating
•Weather forecast: 13 mph wind, 33 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mark Ingram picks up 80 yards and a TD, while Alvin Kamara adds 60 combined yards and a receiving score of his own. Brees throws for 240 yards and a second touchdown to Michael Thomas. Aaron Jones leads the Packers' backfield with 70 combined yards and a score, while Ty Montgomery chips in 40 yards. Hundley throws for 220 yards and a TD to Davante Adams but gets picked off twice. Saints, 24-20

Carolina at Chicago (+3), 41.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Panthers couldn't hold serve against the Eagles last Thursday, but with extra time to prepare for Mitchell Trubisky, it could be a long day for the rookie. This game could well come down to whether the Luke Kuechly-less CAR defense can slow down Jordan Howard, and whether CHI's banged-up linebacking corps can contain a rejuvenated Cam Newton.

The Skinny:
•2017 CAR offense: 21.3 PPG (17th), 95.5 rushing yds/gm (22nd), 248.8 passing yds/gm (15th), 17 sacks allowed (T-21st), 10 turnovers (T-25th)
•2017 CHI offense: 17.5 PPG (T-28th), 136.0 rushing yds/gm (3rd), 188.8 passing yds/gm (28th), 13 sacks allowed (T-14th), 14 turnovers (31st)
•2017 CAR defense: 20.3 PPG allowed (T-9th), 83.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (5th), 216.0 passing yds/gm allowed (T-8th), 20 sacks (T-2nd), four turnovers (T-27th)
•2017 CHI defense: 24.7 PPG allowed (25th), 104.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (15th), 215.8 passing yds/gm allowed (7th), 16 sacks (T-7th), six turnovers (T-22nd)
•Cam Newton versus CHI, three games: 1-2, 55.0 percent completion rate, 314.3 passing yds/gm, 3:4 TD:INT, 7.9 YPA, 75.1 QB rating, 19 carries for 81 yards and two TDs
•Weather forecast: 15 mph wind, 25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Christian McCaffrey scoots for 70 combined yards. Newton throws for 260 yards and two TDs to Devin Funchess while running in a score of his own. Howard runs for 100 yards and a touchdown. Trubisky throws for less than 200 yards again and gets picked off twice. Panthers, 24-13

Tennessee at Cleveland (+6), 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: Marcus Mariota returned last week to get that Colts monkey off the Titans' backs, and while he didn't look 100 percent healthy he's a darn sight better than Matt Cassel, or whatever the University of Cleveland (Ohio) trots out under center. Wait, that's not a college program flipping between QBs every week trying desperately to find something that works, but a professional NFL franchise? Really? Huh.

The Skinny:
•2017 TEN offense: 24.3 PPG (11th), 132.0 rushing yds/gm (6th), 210.0 passing yds/gm (26th), 11 sacks allowed (12th), nine turnovers (T-19th)
•2017 CLE offense: 15.7 PPG (31st), 96.7 rushing yds/gm (21st), 228.0 passing yds/gm (23rd), 18 sacks allowed (T-23rd), 16 turnovers (32nd)
•2017 TEN defense: 27.3 PPG allowed (31st), 105.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (16th), 240.8 passing yds/gm allowed (17th), nine sacks (30th), seven turnovers (T-20th)
•2017 CLE defense: 26.2 PPG allowed (27th), 84.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (6th), 240.7 passing yds/gm allowed (16th), 13 sacks (T-18th), seven turnovers (T-20th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: TEN, 32nd against WR2s (46.2 percent DVOA); CLE, 32nd against WR1s (58.1 percent DVOA), 1st against WR2s (minus 56.2 percent DVOA), 31st against other WRs (32.0 percent DVOA), 31st against TEs (40.5 percent DVOA)
•Key injuries, TEN: RB DeMarco Murray (hamstring, questionable), TE Delanie Walker (calf, questionable), S Johnathan Cyprien (hamstring, out), LB Derrick Morgan (abdomen, questionable)
•Weather forecast: clear, 11 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: DeMarco Murray plays but gains only 50 yards, with Derrick Henry adding 50 yards and a TD. Mariota throws for 250 yards and touchdowns to Rishard Matthews and Jonnu Smith. Duke Johnson leads the Browns' backfield with 100 combined yards and a receiving score, while Isaiah Crowell picks up 60 yards. DeShone Kizer throws for less than 200 yards, but does find David Njoku in the end zone. Titans, 27-23

Dallas at San Francisco (+6), 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

The Story: All the furor over Ezekiel Elliott's legal situation has somewhat obscured the fact that on the field, he's been getting it done. Throw out the Week 2 stinker on the road in Denver, and he's averaging more than 126 yards from scrimmage per game and had three TDs in the three games prior to last week's bye. The Niners counter with rookie quarterback C.J. Beathard, who had his moments last week against Washington and may be a better fit for coach Kyle Shanahan's system. Or maybe just not being Brian Hoyer is enough.

The Skinny:
•2017 DAL offense: 25.0 PPG (9th), 124.0 rushing yds/gm (8th), 238.4 passing yds/gm (20th), seven sacks allowed (T-2nd), seven turnovers (T-11th)
•2017 SF offense: 18.8 PPG (25th), 94.8 rushing yds/gm (23rd), 248.3 passing yds/gm (16th), 18 sacks allowed (T-23rd), seven turnovers (T-11th)
•2017 DAL defense: 26.4 PPG allowed (29th), 118.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (22nd), 250.4 passing yds/gm allowed (22nd), 16 sacks (T-7th), four turnovers (T-27th)
•2017 SF defense: 24.3 PPG allowed (23rd), 112.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (18th), 277.0 passing yds/gm allowed (27th), 14 sacks (T-15th), eight turnovers (T-12th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: DAL, 29th against TEs (27.1 percent DVOA), 32nd against RBs (46.8 percent DVOA); SF, 29th against WR2s (39.1 percent DVOA), 27th against other WRs (27.5 percent DVOA), 1st against TEs (minus 66.4 percent DVOA), 30th against RBs (38.0 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: clear, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Zeke rips off 160 combined yards and two TDs, one on the ground and one through the air. Dak Prescott throws for 260 yards and a second score to Terrance Williams. Carlos Hyde manages 60 combined yards, while Matt Breida catches a touchdown pass. Beathard throws for 220 yards and a second TD to George Kittle, but gets picked off twice. Cowboys, 30-17

Denver (+1.5) at L.A. Chargers, 41.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Story: I'm trying to find something witty to say about the Broncos' embarrassing showing against the Giants, and I got nothing, not even a pun involving Orleans Darkwa's name. The Bolts beat the Giants, though, and have won consecutive games and look like they're finally putting things together, so by the rules of 2017 the Broncos should beat the Chargers this week. Hey, I don't make the rules.

The Skinny:
•2017 DEN offense: 21.6 PPG (16th), 123.6 rushing yds/gm (9th), 256.4 passing yds/gm (11th), 17 sacks allowed (T-21st), nine turnovers (T-19th)
•2017 LAC offense: 19.3 PPG (23rd), 79.0 rushing yds/gm (31st), 272.2 passing yds/gm (5th), seven sacks allowed (T-2nd), seven turnovers (T-11th)
•2017 DEN defense: 19.4 PPG allowed (8th), 70.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (2nd), 204.0 passing yds/gm allowed (5th), 13 sacks (T-18th), four turnovers (T-27th)
•2017 LAC defense: 21.8 PPG allowed (16th), 152.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (32nd), 207.0 passing yds/gm allowed (6th), 18 sacks (T-5th), six turnovers (T-22nd)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 9-2 DEN (plus 1-0 DEN in postseason), average score DEN 25-LAC 19, average margin of victory nine points
•Philip Rivers career stats versus DEN, 24 games: 11-13, 61.6 percent completion rate, 229.0 passing yds/gm, 39:23 TD:INT, 7.4 YPA, 89.0 QB rating
•Weather forecast: clear, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: C.J. Anderson runs for 110 yards and a TD. Trevor Siemian throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Demaryius Thomas. Melvin Gordon gains 70 yards but is held out of the end zone. Rivers throws for 210 yards but gets picked off twice. Broncos, 20-6

Cincinnati (+5.5) at Pittsburgh, 41.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Steelers might be feeling all fat and sassy after handing the Chiefs their first loss, but if they can't keep their focus in a game against their most hated rival (sorry, Ravens, you're not there yet), maybe it is time for Ben Roethlisberger to hang up his cleats. Their young secondary is starting to gel around Joe Haden, though, and that's bad news for Andy Dalton and a Cinci passing game that's struggled against Pittsburgh at the best of times.

The Skinny:
•2017 CIN offense: 16.8 PPG (30th), 84.0 rushing yds/gm (T-28th), 244.0 passing yds/gm (19th), 15 sacks allowed (17th), 11 turnovers (T-27th)
•2017 PIT offense: 19.7 PPG (22nd), 107.3 rushing yds/gm (16th), 253.5 passing yds/gm (13th), 10 sacks allowed (T-8th), 10 turnovers (T-25th)
•2017 CIN defense: 16.6 PPG allowed (2nd), 103.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (14th), 181.6 passing yds/gm allowed (2nd), 18 sacks (T-5th), four turnovers (T-27th)
•2017 PIT defense: 17.0 PPG allowed (4th), 118.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (23rd), 177.7 passing yds/gm allowed (1st), 20 sacks (T-2nd), eight turnovers (T-12th)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 PIT (plus 1-0 PIT in postseason), average score PIT 23-CIN 18, average margin of victory nine points
•Andy Dalton career stats versus PIT, 12 games: 3-9, 58.3 percent completion rate, 213.1 passing yds/gm, 13:11 TD:INT, 6.3 YPA, 76.5 QB rating
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Joe Mixon produces 80 combined yards. Dalton throws for 210 yards and a TD to A.J. Green. Le'Veon Bell racks up 110 combined yards and a touchdown. Roethlisberger throws for 240 yards and TDs to Antonio Brown and Vance McDonald. Steelers, 24-13

Seattle at N.Y. Giants (+5.5), 40.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Giants' defense and running game finally showed up last week, but you could say the same things about the Seahawks defense and Jimmy Graham heading into their bye after they throttled the Rams in Week 5. Regardless of that result in Denver, Eli Manning still has only one semi-reliable target in a rookie tight end, and the team's defense will need to continue playing at their 2016 level if they're going to even keep things close in most matchups, much less find a way into the win column.

The Skinny:
•2017 SEA offense: 22.0 PPG (15th), 109.2 rushing yds/gm (15th), 244.4 passing yds/gm (17th), 13 sacks allowed (T-14th), five turnovers (T-4th)
•2017 NYG offense: 17.5 PPG (T-28th), 89.5 rushing yds/gm (25th), 244.3 passing yds/gm (18th), 16 sacks allowed (T-18th), six turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 SEA defense: 17.4 PPG allowed (6th), 127.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (26th), 216.0 passing yds/gm allowed (T-8th), 11 sacks (T-27th), nine turnovers (T-9th)
•2017 NYG defense: 22.0 PPG allowed (17th), 123.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (25th), 258.3 passing yds/gm allowed (23rd), 12 sacks (T-21st), six turnovers (T-22nd)
•Eli Manning career stats versus SEA, seven games: 2-5, 63.1 percent completion rate, 290.7 passing yds/gm, 14:13 TD:INT, 7.8 YPA, 84.4 QB rating
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: SEA, second against other WRs (minus 44.5 percent DVOA), first against RBs (minus 63.3 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Thomas Rawls leads the Seattle backfield with 60 yards, but J.D. McKissic catches a TD pass. Russell Wilson throws for 230 yards and a second score to Graham. Orleans Darkwa manages only 50 yards. Manning throws for 250 yards but can't find a touchdown. Seahawks, 17-12

Atlanta (+3.5) at New England, 55.0 o/u – Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

The Story: Maybe the Falcons just need to stop playing second halves against AFC East teams. Or maybe they need to start playing them, am I right? (Insert rim shot here). Atlanta's offense isn't the dynamo it was under Kyle Shanahan, but facing a Pats defense that has been a train wreck so far might be just the thing to spark the unit and get them back into a form they haven't seen since, well, the first half of the Super Bowl. Throwing the ball more often to Julio Jones, who's seen only 11 targets in the last two games, would probably help too.

The Skinny:
•2017 ATL offense: 24.2 PPG (12th), 120.6 rushing yds/gm (11th), 271.4 passing yds/gm (6th), 10 sacks allowed (T-8th), seven turnovers (T-11th)
•2017 NE offense: 28.7 PPG (5th), 102.2 rushing yds/gm (19th), 326.5 passing yds/gm (1st), 16 sacks allowed (T-18th), five turnovers (T-4th)
•2017 ATL defense: 21.8 PPG allowed (15th), 102.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (13th), 230.6 passing yds/gm allowed (14th), 12 sacks (T-21st), three turnovers (32nd)
•2017 NE defense: 26.5 PPG allowed (30th), 115.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (20th), 338.2 passing yds/gm allowed (32nd), 14 sacks (T-15th), eight turnovers (T-12th)
•Tom Brady career stats versus ATL, four games: 4-0, 67.2 percent completion rate, 298.3 passing yds/gm, 9:1 TD:INT, 9.1 YPA, 115.7 QB rating
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: NE, 31st against WR1s (45.2 percent DVOA), 28th against RBs (31.8 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Devonta Freeman reels off 120 combined yards and a score, with Tevin Coleman adding 60 yards. Matt Ryan throws for 330 yards and three TDs, one to Justin Hardy and two to Julio, who brings in 140 yards. Dion Lewis leads the Pats backfield with 80 combined yards and a touchdown, while Mike Gillislee also punches home a short TD. Brady throws for 310 yards and touchdowns to Chris Hogan and Rob Gronkowski. Patriots, 34-31

Kansas City at Oakland (+3), 46.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Chiefs let the '72 Dolphins off easy, but they get a potentially cushy landing after their first loss of the season against a team they've mostly owned lately. Oakland did add NaVorro Bowman to its battered linebacking corps, but his snaps will probably be limited Thursday and the bigger concern for the Raiders is the health of Derek Carr's back. He only missed one game due to a transverse process fracture, but he hasn't hit for 200 passing yards since Week 2. On what could be a wet night with poor field conditions, a Kansas City pass rush that got Dee Ford back last week will be looking to send him back to the sidelines.

The Skinny:
•2017 KC offense: 29.5 PPG (T-2nd), 134.8 rushing yds/gm (4th), 272.8 passing yds/gm (4th), 20 sacks allowed (28th), one turnover (1st)
•2017 OAK offense: 20.7 PPG (18th), 93.7 rushing yds/gm (24th), 198.2 passing yds/gm (27th), 13 sacks allowed (T-14th), seven turnovers (T-11th)
•2017 KC defense: 21.7 PPG allowed (T-13th), 130.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (27th), 261.7 passing yds/gm allowed (25th), 15 sacks (T-12th), eight turnovers (T-12th)
•2017 OAK defense: 21.0 PPG allowed (12th), 117.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (21st), 242.7 passing yds/gm allowed (18th), 11 sacks (T-26th), five turnovers (26th)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 KC, with a five-game winning streak. Average score KC 25-OAK 18, average margin of victory 13 points.
•Alex Smith career stats against OAK, 10 games: 9-1, 63.1 percent completion rate, 211.3 passing yds/gm, 19:4 TD:INT, 8.0 YPA, 105.9 QB rating
•Weather forecast: 11 mph wind, 33 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Kareem Hunt piles up 140 combined yards and a touchdown. Smith throws for 230 yards and TDs to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Marshawn Lynch manages only 50 yards but does get into the end zone. Carr throws for less than 200 yards again but hits Cordarrelle Patterson for a score. Chiefs, 27-17

Last week's record: 6-8, 4-10 ATS, 6-8 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 47-44, 37-52-2 ATS, 43-46-2 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS