Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland

The Steelers are reeling and their season already appears in question following an embarrassing Week 1 blowout loss to the 49ers, and unfortunately for Pittsburgh it seems like their division rival Browns are on the upswing as the Steelers descend. Cleveland heads into the contest not just 1-0, but with their season-opening victory secured at the expense of the division favorite Bengals. The Steelers will look to even the AFC North power rankings with a victory Monday, and they have homefield advantage to their benefit. The Browns are nonetheless favored by 2.0 points, while the over/under is down to 38.0.

QUARTERBACKS

Deshaun Watson ($10600 DK, $16500 FD) has yet to play a clean game for the Browns, and though there are various valid excuses for that outcome the pressure is still building. Now Or Never approaches, and a primetime road game against a hated division rival only puts more of a magnifying glass on Watson. He has to deal with the loss of standout right tackle Jack Conklin in this game, though that development is somewhat offset by Pittsburgh's loss of All-Decade interior defender Cam Heyward. The Pittsburgh cornerbacks were an unwatchable mess in Week 1, so if that continues here then Watson should have some easy shots open downfield. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season as a head coach, however, and it's worth keeping in mind that the Steelers can't be dismissed no matter how weak they might appear.

Kenny Pickett ($9200 DK, $15000 FD) was a disaster in Week 1, much like he was for almost all of his rookie season. The 49ers defense is excellent and that's a valid excuse up to a point, but for the purposes of projecting this game it might not mean much. The Browns defense looks much improved from 2022, which makes sense because Jim Schwartz is a better defensive coordinator than Joe Woods. Myles Garrett has been consistently great in his career yet looked maybe more menacing than ever in Week 1, which could very well prove to be Pickett's problem in this game. The loss of Diontae Johnson makes things more difficult yet.

RUNNING BACKS

Najee Harris ($9400 DK, $14500 FD) always has the bull's eye on him since the Pittsburgh passing game can't scare the safeties back, and that probably only gets worse with Diontae Johnson unavailable. The good news is the Browns defense is likely easier to run on than the 49ers are, and perhaps to a major extent. The Browns run defense is probably better than it was in 2022, but (A) that's not saying much and (B) they could be much improved from last year and still a safe distance behind San Francisco, who may well finish the year with the best run defense. Harris should therefore improve big time on his Week 1 numbers, which resulted in just 31 yards on six carries. Offensive coordinator Matt Canada knows he can't allow that to occur again, or at least should understand he could get fired as soon as this week if he calls the same game against the Browns. Not just Harris – the Steelers also need to get more work for Jaylen Warren ($3000 DK, $7500 FD), who only saw three carries for six yards with a useless six targets for 12 yards otherwise. Warren's Week 1 targets were not quality targets, and Canada has to fix that.

Nick Chubb ($12200 DK, $17000 FD) is arguably the biggest star in the whole game, and the Steelers defense will plan accordingly. Whether Pittsburgh can actually see through those plans is another question, but the plan is clear nonetheless: to beat the Browns, you have to contain Chubb. Then again, Chubb's opponents have concluded as much for nearly every game of his NFL career, and to this point it has saved almost none of them. Whatever Chubb doesn't claim in this backfield should fall to Jerome Ford ($400 DK, $7500 FD), who saw 15 carries last week as the Browns kept the ball away from the Bengals. Ford is no Chubb, but double-digit carries is a big workload for Ford's price.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

The absence of Diontae Johnson is a brutal development for the Steelers, who are now down to Allen Robinson ($6200 DK, $8000 FD) and Calvin Austin ($4800 DK, $7000 FD) behind the excellent George Pickens ($8000 DK, $12000 FD). Not just that, but the Pittsburgh wideouts have to deal with an excellent cornerback trio between Greg Newsome, Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson. All three of the top remaining Pittsburgh wideouts showed something in Week 1, though in a game that looked like garbage time almost from the start. Pickens is a beast and won't be deterred by any circumstances, but it's not clear how nearby or not any of Pickett's passes might be. Tight end Pat Freiermuth ($5800 DK, $10000 FD) might be the real WR2 of the offense after Pickens, even if Robinson and Austin maintain their momentum. Freiermuth would be a very productive pass catcher in an offense with a better quarterback, and in this game he should easily outdo his Week 1 result of just one reception. Although Darnell Washington ($200 DK, $5000 FD) played more snaps than Connor Heyward would have likely played more snaps than Washington if Freiermuth hadn't left the game with a chest injury.

Amari Cooper ($8800 DK, $13500 FD) has an excellent matchup against Pittsburgh's weak corners, but he's a game-time decision with a groin injury and therefore might not be quite himself even if he does play. Any slack left from Cooper would fall on Elijah Moore ($6600 DK, $9000 FD) and Donovan Peoples-Jones ($5000 DK, $8500 FD), both of whom have good matchups here. If Watson does his part, these receivers should see opportunities for big plays. Marquise Goodwin ($200 DK, $6000 FD), David Bell ($200 DK, $5500 FD) and Cedric Tillman ($200 DK, $5000 FD) are all candidates to chip in, too, after each played 10 snaps against the Bengals. Of course, much more than any of those three, tight end David Njoku ($7000 DK, $8000 FD) is a standout candidate to produce, regardless of Cooper's status. Harrison Bryant ($2200 DK, $6500 FD) and Jordan Akins ($800 DK, $5000 FD) seem to be splitting the backup tight end snaps otherwise.

KICKERS

Dustin Hopkins ($4200 DK, $9500 FD) is the favored kicker in this game, and he has been a reliable kicker for almost all of his NFL. Hopkins' limitation is distance – he hasn't made more than two 50-yard kicks in a season since 2018 – but he's reliable from 50 and less. He made all three of his field goal attempts for Cleveland in Week 1 and finished with 12.0 fantasy points.

Chris Boswell ($4000 DK, $8500 FD) kicks for the underdog – one with severe offensive limitations, moreover – but he probably has more fantasy upside than Hopkins if only for the fact that Boswell has elite range as a kicker. Boswell is less reliable than Hopkins from less than 50 – Boswell somehow made more of his 50-yard kicks in the last two years (15 of 18) than from 40-to-49 (16 of 23) – but the ability to drill multiple 50-yard kicks in a game gives Boswell a higher ceiling despite his lower floor.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Though wounded and cornered, the Pittsburgh DST ($4400 DST, $9000 FD) can't be entirely counted out, especially since they're at home. The loss of Cam Heyward is something they can't offset with their remaining personnel, but the Browns offensive line is dealing with a similarly insurmountable loss with Jack Conklin out for the year. Deshaun Watson has yet to log a truly good game with the Browns, and there's no guarantee this game is the first.

The Browns DST ($4600 DK, $9500 FD) nonetheless have the conventional advantage as the favored team with the easily superior season-long projection. That Kenny Pickett looks like a turnover-machine with little or no big-play ability leaves the Browns defense with no excuses for any dud they lay here. The Steelers offensive line should be overmatched by the Browns pass rush, and the Browns corners should have the advantage over the Pittsburgh receivers, especially with Diontae Johnson out.