This article is part of our Injury Analysis series.
No player is immune to injury, but some are more vulnerable than others. Last season, the top-25 players by average draft position (ADP) averaged 2.2 games lost to injury or illness. If you do opt to gamble on an inherently risky player, it's often wise to invest in a reliable backup even if there is a trade off in terms of upside. To help gauge the level of risk with some big names, here's a breakdown of what to expect entering this season.
Return = When a player is ready to play in games
Low Risk = Player's injury risk should not impact his draft price
Medium Risk = Player is worth drafting at a discount or if his injury risk is already baked into his draft price
High Risk = Player should be avoided or drafted only at a large discount
QUARTERBACK
Carson Wentz, Eagles
Risk: High
Injury: Stress Fracture in Back
Return: Early Preseason
Wentz has endured myriad injuries since entering the league in 2016. He suffered broken ribs during his rookie season, then tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee a year later. His 2018 campaign was cut short by a stress fracture in his back, an injury that often heals slowly due to limited blood flow to the area. These concerns are amplified by Wentz's medical record, including a previous stress fracture in his back that occurred during college. He returned for OTAs without limitations, but history suggests
No player is immune to injury, but some are more vulnerable than others. Last season, the top-25 players by average draft position (ADP) averaged 2.2 games lost to injury or illness. If you do opt to gamble on an inherently risky player, it's often wise to invest in a reliable backup even if there is a trade off in terms of upside. To help gauge the level of risk with some big names, here's a breakdown of what to expect entering this season.
Return = When a player is ready to play in games
Low Risk = Player's injury risk should not impact his draft price
Medium Risk = Player is worth drafting at a discount or if his injury risk is already baked into his draft price
High Risk = Player should be avoided or drafted only at a large discount
QUARTERBACK
Carson Wentz, Eagles
Risk: High
Injury: Stress Fracture in Back
Return: Early Preseason
Wentz has endured myriad injuries since entering the league in 2016. He suffered broken ribs during his rookie season, then tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee a year later. His 2018 campaign was cut short by a stress fracture in his back, an injury that often heals slowly due to limited blood flow to the area. These concerns are amplified by Wentz's medical record, including a previous stress fracture in his back that occurred during college. He returned for OTAs without limitations, but history suggests he might have a tough time staying healthy. The risk of re-injury will linger even when he receives full clearance.
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers
Risk: Medium
Injury: Torn ACL
Return: Early Preseason
Garoppolo's first full season with the Niners was cut short by a torn ACL during a Week 3 loss to the Chiefs. While the timing of the injury was costly for 2018, it should provide enough time to minimize the impact on this season. The fact that the injury was isolated to a single ligament and did not involve cartilage damage should further aid Garoppolo's recovery. Quarterbacks have the highest return-to-play rate following ACL tears, and players like Wentz, Deshaun Watson and Tom Brady provide encouraging precedents. The injury could impact Garoppolo's mobility, especially early in the season, but he should be available at a reasonable price on draft day.
Cam Newton, Panthers
Risk: Medium
Injury: Shoulder
Return: Early Preseason
Newton spent the offseason rehabbing from his second shoulder surgery in two years. Fortunately, this second trip to the operating room was a simple debridement — the removal of damaged tissue — and much less invasive than the 2017 procedure to repair a partially torn rotator cuff. The surgery is often described as a "clean up" and was needed to address a small cartilage issue in the joint. While this suggests Newton could require long-term maintenance on his shoulder, he started throwing footballs in May and is expected to participate in training camp. Regaining complete range of motion in the joint will be a key component of recovery and should allow Newton to return to top form.
Andy Dalton, Bengals
Risk: Low
Injury: Torn Thumb Ligament
Return: Early Preseason
The Bengals' decision to spend a fourth-round pick on QB Ryan Finley shouldn't be seen as an indication that Dalton's injury might impact him this season. After undergoing surgery in late November to repair a torn ligament in his right thumb, the 31-year-old started throwing in February and reportedly has full range of motion in the joint. He practiced in OTAs in May and shouldn't be limited in training camp.
RUNNING BACK
Todd Gurley, Rams
Risk: High
Injury: Arthritic Knee
Return: Early Preseason
Gurley's 2018 started in dominant fashion as he scored 17 touchdowns in the Rams' first 10 games. But his output waned as the season progressed, capped off with a disappointing Super Bowl in which he totaled 35 yards on 10 carries. A problematic left knee was the primary reason for the downswing, and reports about arthritis in the joint surfaced after the season. Gurley famously tore his ACL in the same left knee during his final season at Georgia but was still drafted 10th overall by the Rams. Concern about his long-term durability is warranted — Gurley's trainer spoke in June about "managing" an "arthritic component to his knee" stemming from the ACL injury. Arthritis is a chronic condition linked to the articular cartilage of a joint . It is difficult to treat, and surgery cannot truly fix the problem. Instead, Gurley likely will utilize various treatments to battle the symptoms of the issue, i.e., he'll manage it as best he can. The Rams likely will help as well by reducing his workload, which also would limit his productivity. Draft cautiously and don't expect a repeat of last year's success.
Phillip Lindsay, Broncos
Risk: Medium
Injury: Fractured Wrist
Return: Late Preseason
The undrafted running back surprised everyone with a Pro Bowl season as a rookie last year. Unfortunately, Lindsay couldn't participate in the all-star game because of a wrist injury that included bone and ligament damage and required surgery. It's believed Lindsay injured the scaphoid, a small bean-shaped bone at the base of the thumb. The bone tissue should heal fine, but ligaments can be slow to recover. A loss of strength in the wrist might lead to issues with fumbles or dropped passes, the latter of which was already a problem (five drops on 47 targets) when Lindsay was healthy. He was limited to individual drills throughout spring and wasn't seen catching passes until June.
Jerick McKinnon, 49ers
Risk: Medium
Injury: Torn ACL
Return: Late Preseason
McKinnon tore his ACL in early September shortly before what would've been his 49ers debut. His recovery is reportedly progressing smoothly, and he has already made cuts on the surgically repaired joint. While the injury happened early enough for him to be ready for Week 1 this season, the team can handle the final phases of McKinnon's recovery conservatively now that it has a crowded backfield — the 49ers added Tevin Coleman in the offseason, and Matt Breida's injured pectoral isn't thought to be serious. The presence of viable alternatives could impact how quickly McKinnon returns to playing or how much of a workload he receives.
WIDE RECEIVER
Christian Kirk, Cardinals
Risk: High
Injury: Broken Foot
Return: Early Preseason
Kirk broke his foot Week 13 last season and underwent surgery. The exact bone broken was not revealed, though reports suggest the injury involved the fifth metatarsal. Fractures in this area have become commonplace among NFL wide receivers, with Dez Bryant, Julian Edelman and Julio Jones enduring the injury in recent seasons. Surgery does not guarantee a speedy recovery, and the odds of a re-fracture or hardware complications in the area are high. Kirk is a popular breakout candidate for good reason, but the possibility of complications with his foot should also be factored into the acquisition cost.
Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos
Risk: High
Injury: Torn Achilles Tendon
Return: Early Season
Sanders has made impressive strides, literally and figuratively, in his recovery from a torn Achilles tendon suffered in early December. He returned to straight-line running just four months following surgery, but he admitted he isn't sure about his availability for training camp. A traumatic injury of this nature often has lingering effects in a player's first season back, and it's likely Sanders will not return to peak fitness until 2020. It doesn't help that he's 32.
Cameron Meredith, Saints
Risk: High
Injury: Knee Swelling
Return: Early Preseason
Knee issues have plagued Meredith since the 2017 preseason when he tore the ACL and medial collateral ligament (MCL) in his left knee. After missing all of that season, he missed multiple games last year with continued swelling linked to the original repair. He underwent a debridement procedure in November in hopes of addressing the root of the problem and returning for the start of training camp. However, he was a limited participant in spring practices, and multiple surgeries on one joint in a short time gives him a higher degree of risk for this season.
Demaryius Thomas, Patriots
Risk: High
Injury: Torn Achilles Tendon
Return: Midseason
Thomas spent the offseason working his way back from a torn Achilles in his left foot. The injury occurred Dec. 23, increasing the chances of his rehab bleeding into the 2019 campaign. He made a quick recovery from the same injury in his other foot in 2011, but that was when he was 23. Let someone else gamble on the four-time Pro Bowler.
Odell Beckham Jr., Browns
Risk: Medium
Injury: Strained Quadriceps
Return: Early Preseason
A lingering quadriceps strain kept the explosive playmaker out of his final four games with the Giants last year. Beckham was then traded to Cleveland in the offseason and has shown no signs the injury remains an issue. However, his injury profile and history raise questions about durability, as Beckham has battled multiple lower-extremity strains throughout his career as well as a broken ankle. He will still enter the year as a top-rated fantasy option, but repeated leg injuries take their toll.
Will Fuller, Texans
Risk: Medium
Injury: Torn ACL
Return: Week 1
Fuller produces when healthy, but injuries have limited his time on the field. He has missed 17 games in his three-year career with an assortment of injuries, including a broken collarbone and multiple knee problems. He is still rehabbing a torn ACL sustained in late October. A Week 1 return remains a possibility, but expect the Texans to limit his reps in training camp and throughout preseason.
A.J. Green, Bengals
Risk: Medium
Injury: Torn Toe Ligament
Return: Early Preseason
Green enters a contract year after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ligament on the bottom of his big toe. The issue dates to 2014, and it was particularly problematic last season, costing him seven games. Toe injuries can be severely limiting for wide receivers and can easily be aggravated, though the return-to-play rate following surgery is high. Look for Green to modify his cleats in some fashion to help guard the area. He's already running routes and should be ready when camp starts, though his history of toe injuries raises the risk of future problems.
Cooper Kupp, Rams
Risk: Medium
Injury: Torn ACL
Return: Early Season
Kupp is working his way back from a late-season ACL tear. His injury occurred Week 10, increasing the chances his recovery carries into this season. Kupp participated in jogging-speed team drills during May OTAs, but look for the Rams to slow play the situation to ensure he's ready and available for the bulk of their schedule.
Marqise Lee, Jaguars
Risk: Medium
Injury: Torn ACL/PCL
Return: Week 1
Lee suffered an ACL tear during the third week of preseason, and when he had surgery, doctors also addressed a pre-existing issue with his posterior cruciate ligament (PCL). The PCL sits behind the ACL, acting as an axis for rotation. The additional injury can lengthen the recovery process, and Lee isn't expected to resume full activities until late in preseason. Given his previous history of hamstring injuries, play it safe and expect Lee to return closer to the start of the regular season, if he doesn't end up on the PUP list.
DeAndre Hopkins, Texans
Risk: Low
Injury: Sprained Shoulder
Return: Early Preseason
The Pro Bowl wideout entered the offseason with a sprained shoulder suffered in Houston's playoff loss to Indianapolis. The final diagnosis was a moderate sprain of the acromioclavicular (AC) joint. The AC joint is not the ball-and-socket joint of the shoulder but is instead located where the clavicle (collarbone) connects to a bony process on the scapula (shoulder blade) known as the acromion. The joint serves as a strut, allowing the arm to be raised overhead. Fortunately, surgery was not needed and Hopkins should be 100 percent healthy entering training camp.
Marvin Jones, Lions
Risk: Low
Injury: Knee Bone Bruise
Return: Early Preseason
Jones was placed on injured reserve with a knee injury late last season. The good news is multiple evaluations ultimately revealed the major knee ligaments remained intact. But he was diagnosed with a bone bruise, an injury that is more significant than it sounds. The injury involves damage to the bone tissue that the body treats the same way it would a fracture. Furthermore, bone bruises in the knee often require extra recovery time due to the biomechanics of the joint. Fortunately, they usually heal nicely, and Jones, who did not participate in May OTAs, expects to be ready for training camp.
Anthony Miller, Bears
Risk: Low
Injury: Dislocated Shoulder
Return: Late Preseason
Miller dislocated his shoulder multiple times last year before undergoing surgery in January to repair the associated damage. The procedure included a repair of the labrum, a fibrocartilage rim that aids in shoulder stability. Studies show the return-to-play-rate for these types of surgeries is high, and Miller should have a chance to build on his encouraging rookie season.
Paul Richardson, Redskins
Risk: Low
Injury: Broken Collarbone
Return: Late Preseason
Richardson battled through a painful shoulder injury last season, dealing with damage to his AC joint and collarbone. A surgical plate was inserted in early November to stabilize multiple breaks within the collarbone, and Richardson spent the offseason recuperating. His long-term health should be good after going under the knife, and his value should be largely unaffected.
TIGHT END
Tyler Eifert, Bengals
Risk: High
Injury: Broken Ankle
Return: Early Preseason
The oft-injured tight end suffered one of the more frightening injuries of his career when he dislocated and fractured his ankle Week 4 last season. Specifically, Eifert fractured his fibula and also tore ligaments in the area, undergoing surgery shortly thereafter. The ligament injuries will be the biggest long-term concerns. He participated in some offseason workouts but was held out of June minicamp and it's unclear if he will be ready for the start of training camp. Eifert has a lengthy list of medical issues that includes multiple back surgeries and additional procedures to address shoulder and elbow problems.
Cameron Brate, Buccaneers
Risk: Medium
Injury: Torn Hip Labrum
Return: Late Preseason
Brate underwent surgery in January to address a longstanding hip injury. He originally tore his labrum in 2017 and attempted conservative treatment. Problems linked to the injury affected his offseason and in-season approach, though he managed to play 16 games in 2018. Like the shoulder, the hip has a fibrocartilage labrum to add stability to the ball-and-socket portion of the joint. If damaged, the overall integrity of the joint is compromised. Brate hopes to be back in time for training camp, but expect him to return closer to the start of the regular season.
Greg Olsen, Panthers
Risk: Medium
Injury: Broken Foot
Return: Early Preseason
The three-time Pro Bowler struggled with his health in back-to-back seasons as he battled multiple problems with his foot. Olsen originally fractured his fifth metatarsal during the 2017 campaign, then re-fractured the bone almost a year later in the 2018 season opener. After working his way back into playing shape, he then tore the plantar fascia in the same foot Week 13. He once again will attempt to resume his career after an extensive rehab. He was cleared for OTAs in May and should be available for training camp, but look for the Panthers to protect the 34-year-old and limit his reps throughout preseason.
Delanie Walker, Titans
Risk: Medium
Injury: Broken/Dislocated Ankle
Return: Early Preseason
Walker suffered a fractured and dislocated ankle in the season opener last year, requiring season-ending surgery. As with Eifert, the primary area of concern will be the strength of the ligaments in the area. The bone should be back at full strength by now, while ligaments often take longer to heal. Fortunately, Walker's injury occurred early in the season, providing him with ample recovery time. He had an excellent track record of durability prior to 2018, but he is 35 this season and may be winding down. The Titans likely will provide him with multiple days off throughout training camp to ensure he's ready to go for Week 1.
Trey Burton, Bears
Risk: Low
Injury: Sports hernia
Return: Late Preseason
A "significant" groin strain kept Burton out of Chicago's playoff loss to Philadelphia. He then underwent surgery in the offseason for what was described as a sports hernia. But the term is a bit misleading, as the injury rarely involves a true herniation. Instead, this procedure is now often referred to as a core muscle repair. Fortunately, the surgery has a high success rate, and
Burton's injury history is largely underwhelming. Coach Matt Nagy expressed optimism about the tight end's availability for training camp.
Hunter Henry, Chargers
Risk: Low
Injury: Torn ACL
Return: Early Preseason
Henry worked his way back from an offseason ACL tear to make a cameo appearance in the Chargers' playoff loss to the Patriots in January. Now a full year removed from surgery, Henry's reconstructed ACL should display the same biological characteristics as the original ligament. He should be a full-go for training camp and preseason games.
