Exploiting the Matchups: Matt Ryan's Time to Shine

A kicker change? Really?! A kicker?!? That's the only thing that separated me from a Super Bowl title AND an extra $500. One damn over-thinking move less than an hour before the most epic fantasy match of my career. Talk about your bad beats. Talk about your fantasy lessons.

I figured I was really up against it in this particular home league. PPR league, bonus points for long scores and high yardage. My opponent had demolished the regular season. Somehow the league, myself included, allowed him to draft Julio Jones, Rob Gronkowski, DeAndre Hopkins, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Latavius Murray and eventually via waivers, to add David Johnson. He even had the Cardinals' D against a bad Packers offense. So yeah, I wasn't especially confident with my team led by Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson and DeAngelo Williams.

When Wilson threw a touchdown with 17 seconds left versus the Rams it put me behind by just shy of eight points with only Cincinnati's defense left to save me. Had I not swapped Graham Gano for Chris Boswell earlier that day I would have been behind about five. The Bengals D notched six for me.

Sometimes you're damned if you do and your damned if you don't, because I very nearly added and played the Vikings defense over Cinci's but opted to stick with the group that had been consistent for me most of the year. Wrong moves cost championships, even at the least significant positions. But that doesn't mean you should be afraid to make them. I didn't pick up the Vikings primarily because I didn't want to regret making a last-minute change that cost me a championship. I felt the kicker one was inconsequential, but I didn't want to adjust anything else for fear of making the wrong move. Boswell was the right move -- he'd scored double figures in six straight -- and so too was the Vikings playing an Odell Beckham-less Giants. So don't be scared to make the move you believe can net you more points. Don't be afraid of "blowing it." Pull the trigger if you believe there's an advantage to be had with a change you normally wouldn't make and live with the consequences as we head into real playoffs. As a friend reminded me after hearing about this and another bad playoff beat, you should always trust your first instinct. And if you do, how can you regret the outcome?

Thanks for reading this season, and good luck to anyone still trying to claim a title.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are guys you wouldn't roll out every week while downgrades are generally lineup mainstays but for whom you may want to consider an alternative based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE

Quarterback

Matt Ryan, ATL vs. NO

Ryan's time to shine is here. He hasn't thrown multiple touchdowns in a game since before Thanksgiving and has only four over his last five outings. Moreover, he has only four 300-yard performances this season. That all changes versus the historically bad Saints defense.

Matthew Stafford, DET at CHI

The Bears have allowed the likes of Blaine Gabbert, Kirk Cousins, Teddy Bridgewater and Jameis Winston to combine for 11 touchdowns the last four weeks, with each producing at least two. Stafford, who now has 14 scores over his last five with multiple TDs in each, will continue to tear it up in Jim Bob Cooter's surgical attack.

Sam Bradford, PHI at NYG

A Giants defense that already was last in passing yards allowed packed up its tents and went home last week. Even versus a division rival, with nothing left to play for, this team won't put up much resistance. Bradford has had his struggles this year, but he's pitched it for at least 360 in consecutive games and with Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz stepping up, he'll stay hot and pay tribute to Chip Kelly, the man that brought him to Philly.

Running Back

Brandon Bolden, NE at MIA

Bolden was the most effective of the Patriots' ineffective tailbacks versus the Jets, with 60 total yards on 14 touches. Most inspiring is that he was targeted more times and caught the same number of passes as James White. That versatility will come in handy against a Dolphins defense that's allowed the most fantasy points to opposing rushers and was just steamrolled by old man Frank Gore.

Isaiah Crowell, CLE vs. PIT

Crowell was horrendous in the first meeting with Pittsburgh in Week 10, producing an embarrassing negative five yards on six carries. He followed that up with another stinker but has since been quite good, netting 318 yards and three TDs at 5.7 yards per attempt the last four weeks. He should get his revenge against a Steelers group that just let Baltimore's backfield blast it for 121 and a score.

Karlos Williams, BUF vs. NYJ

Don't discount how much Rex Ryan will have his men motivated to play the potential spoiler to New York's playoff hopes. Williams tallied 50 total yards and a score versus the Jets earlier this year on only eight touches and is almost assured twice that workload with LeSean McCoy (knee) sidelined. In three games in which he's received double-digit carries Williams has produced at least 70 total yards and a score in each.

Wide Receiver

Travis Benjamin, CLE vs. PIT

The Steelers defense has allowed over 100 yards more to wide receivers than the next most generous defense. Not coincidentally, Benjamin's last 100-yard effort came against the Steelers in Week 10. The veteran wideout is just 87 yards shy of his first career 1,000-yard season, and Pittsburgh is going to help him get there.

Jermaine Kearse, SEA at AZ

Kearse has quietly produced at least 74 yards or scored in three straight, and it's not like Seattle has a consistent ground attack without Marshawn Lynch or Thomas Rawls. With Russell Wilson playing at an elite level, his second-favorite wideout is seeing his floor and ceiling reach new heights.

Markus Wheaton, PIT at CLE

The Browns are one of only seven defenses to have allowed more than 2,500 receiving yards and at least 20 touchdowns to wideouts. Wheaton, who has at least 65 yards or a touchdown in four of his last five, will stay productive in a must-win contest for the Steelers.

Tight End

Ben Watson, NO at ATL

Watson turned in a season-high for targets (12) and catches (10) the last time New Orleans faced an Atlanta defense that has greatly limited outside receivers all year. Don't be surprised when the Saints -- who won that first meeting with the Falcons -- employ the same game plan and pick apart the soft spots in Atlanta's coverage with their athletic tight end.

Zach Miller, CHI vs. DET

When the Bears added Kevin White in the first round of the NFL draft there is not a man, woman or child alive that would have predicted a team that already employed Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte would be led in touchdown receptions by a journeyman tight end. Miller has stepped in as the starter the last three weeks with Bennett on IR (ribs) and produced at least 57 yards in each game. Now Jeffery (hamstring) is out as well and Miller will look to add to his team-leading five scores as the No. 1 target for the Bears facing a Lions defense that's allowed the most TDs to tight ends.

DOWNGRADE

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. MIN

There are at least a dozen quarterbacks I'd feel more confident starting than Rodgers. As insane as it is to say that and believe it, it's a fair assessment. He's reached 300 yards only three times this season and has less than 220 in five of his last six. He's been terrible the last two games with four turnovers and two touchdowns, and a Vikings defense that's getting healthy again held him to less than a 50-percent completion rate the first time around.

Derek Carr, OAK at KC

Carr's only game this season with more picks than scores came against a Chiefs defense playing as well as any in the league. With Amari Cooper struggling with consistency and the Chiefs jostling for playoff seeding, the second-year breakout is a terrifying start in Arrowhead.

Running Back

Doug Martin, TB at CAR

Martin has lost three fumbles in the last four weeks and Charles Sims has been terrific in those same four games, averaging 7.0 yards per carry and 12.8 yards per catch while amassing 340 total yards. Sims has earned more touches as the Bucs head into the offseason with an eye toward an uncertain future for Martin.

Frank Gore, IND vs. TEN

Gore woke up from a five-game slumber last week to blast the Dolphins for 85 yards and two scores on the ground, numbers that were nearly identical to what he did the first time he faced Tennessee in September. That contest, however, was led by Andrew Luck. With Josh Freeman or Ryan Lindley -- both just signed this week -- potentially under center for Indy, expect Gore to revert back to the 2.7 YPC play of his five-game snooze.

David Johnson, AZ vs. SEA

Johnson only has 599 total yards and five touchdowns over the last four games. He touched the ball just once, though, in Arizona's previous meeting with Seattle, and he'll face the stiffest test of his exceptional talents facing the Seahawks' third-ranked run defense. After Todd Gurley put his stamp on his elite status with 90 yards and a score against Seattle, Johnson has his shot to show who is the best rookie back, but chances are he comes up short.

Wide Receiver

Sammy Watkins, BUF vs. NYJ

Darrelle Revis held Watkins to 14 yards in their first meeting. After racking up 543 yards and six touchdowns over the last five games, Watkins is about to get shut down as the Jets make their playoff push.

Michael Floyd, AZ vs. SEA

He torched Richard Sherman in their first meeting back in Week 10, but with a knee injury bothering Floyd this week, it's time for Sherman's revenge.

Brandin Cooks, NO at ATL

Cooks has eight touchdowns over the last eight games, but in the two contests he did not score during that stretch he totaled just 64 yards. He only managed 41 in the first meeting with Atlanta and could again struggle against a secondary that's allowed the fewest touchdowns (tied at seven) and second fewest yards to wideouts.

Tight End

Tyler Eifert, CIN vs. BAL

Eifert (concussion) appears on track to return to the field after being cleared to practice. It may not be a happy return, however, facing a Ravens defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Although Eifert has scored 12 touchdowns in 12 games, this Ravens D was able to hold him catchless in Week 3.